To most people, Christmas is a time for festive cheer, for mince pies and for wanting to throttle a close relative over a game of Monopoly.
But to Premier League managers, Jesus’ birthday has tended to signal a slip in their job stability and significant rise in their xD (expected doles per 90).
The break for the World Cup pushed the great festive tradition of sacking season forward slightly, with Aston Villa, Wolves and Southampton all pulling the trigger in the weeks before Qatar 2022.
But there are still a selection of managers teetering over the edge ahead of the season restart on Boxing Day.
Most likely Premier League manager to lost their job next
(Odds courtesy of Betfair)
- Frank Lampard: 4-9
- David Moyes: 3-1
- Graham Potter: 17-2
- Jesse Marsch: 12-1
- Steve Cooper: 12-1
- Antonio Conte: 16-1
Frank Lampard (4-9)
When Frank Lampard took over as Everton boss last January and guided a subpar squad to a nervous 16th-placed finish, it was hoped that a summer and some stability would improve the club’s fortunes for 2022-23.
Now 17th at Christmas, it’s clear that nothing has changed at Goodison.
Lampard’s biggest failing in many eyes has been the utter tepidity of his tenure. Everton have won just eight of his 30 games in charge, scoring the joint-second least goals in the league this season (11). Fans accept that they won’t win every game, but they at least want to see some goals.
That Lampard still has a job is almost entirely thanks to the goodwill created by local-boy-come-good Anthony Gordon, who is the club’s top league goalscorer with three.
His advocates will point to the joint-fourth defensive record in the league, having conceded only 17 goals in 15 games, but this has still only resulted in four clean sheets.
Two of the three clubs currently below Everton made managerial changes pre-World Cup (Southampton and Wolves) and may restart the season in brighter form.
i understands that Lampard currently retains the total confidence of Everton’s higher-ups after a series of comings and goings at Goodison and that they are planning on supporting him in the January transfer window.
But having won just one of their last seven league games, his future may now depend on the Toffees’ next five fixtures, where they face West Ham (16th), Southampton (19th) and Wolves (20th). Failure to get anything from those clashes will likely leave Everton bottom and Lampard unemployed.
David Moyes (3-1)
Europa League semi-finalists and seventh in the Premier League last season, West Ham’s decline to 16th at Christmas has been as sharp as it has shocking.
The Hammers won only one of their last seven league games of 2021-22 and have followed that up with four victories from 15 league games this season.
Like Everton, David Moyes’ side are defensively solid but struggling for goals. This won’t impress a club hierarchy who are estimated to have spent over £100m this summer on attackers Gianluca Scamacca and Maxwel Cornet and creative midfielder Lucas Paqueta.
Moyes has credit in the bank from previous successes and his side have struggled with injuries throughout some of this season. But if his side go from flirting with to fighting relegation, then Gold and Sullivan will have to consider making a move.
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Chelsea are not accustomed to eighth place in the Premier League, especially when it puts them directly below the club whose manager they poached at phenomenal expense.
Thirteen managers came and went in 19 years under Roman Abramovich, but Graham Potter’s hiring appeared to signify that the Todd Boehly era would be different.
It was expected that Potter may take a while to settle in at Chelsea and teaching the squad his complex tactical system without much training time in a busy schedule was always going to be challenging.
But when the season stopped for the World Cup, the Blues were winless in six league games, finishing with four consecutive losses.
Chelsea will hope that six weeks to work with some of his squad will help Potter improve the club’s fortunes, with back-to-back games against newly promoted sides to restart the campaign.
i understands the ex-Brighton man had positive meetings with the club hierarchy during the World Cup and feels supported in his role, making any imminent departure unlikely.
Jesse Marsch (12-1)
Having avoided relegation by three points in 2021-22 after he took over following a disastrous stint at RB Leipzig, there were legitimate questions surrounding Jesse Marsch’s capabilities as a top-level coach.
At their best, like this season’s 3-0 win over Chelsea or 2-1 win over Liverpool, Marsch’s Leeds side are an unstoppable counter-attacking force.
At their worst (the 5-2 defeat to Brentford springs to mind), they look defensively rickety and wasteful going forward.
Marsch seems well liked by most Leeds fans, but they are currently only two points above the relegation zone and face second-placed Manchester City and third-placed Newcastle in their first two games after the restart.
If results do not go their way early on and they slide into danger, public opinion could rapidly turn against the American.
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