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WEMBLEY — Part of the reason why Arsenal were odds-on favourites to win the season’s first piece of silverware was how Manchester City have drifted at a time of year when they are normally at their unstoppable best.

The business end of the season is where Pep Guardiola’s men activate beast mode, where everything that dares cross their path is swept aside with aplomb. Of late, their expensively-assembled side has looked distinctly ordinary – even Erling Haaland appearing more human than ever, picking the wrong time to endure the worst goalscoring spell of his career.

Before the end of March, Arsenal not only had the chance to breathe life into their quadruple dream by earning that expected victory over an incongruously timid City, they effectively could have hammered the final nail into their coffin of the league title challenge, potentially Guardiola’s final tilt, too.

Instead, one selection in particular, along with that profound inability to get over the line when it really matters, could have even more damaging consequences in the coming weeks.

"Kepa's lost it, AND O'REILLY HAS STOLEN!"

Manchester City take the lead at Wembley! pic.twitter.com/L9KFaERBmn

— Sky Sports Football (@SkyFootball) March 22, 2026

Sticking by Kepa Arrizabalaga is in some ways admirable. The Spanish deputy goalkeeper had played all the previous Carabao Cup rounds enroute to the final. But, with the outcome of the first showpiece of the season carrying so much more meaning than just a trophy, no chances, on an error-prone stopper, should have been taken. Arsenal haven’t even won a trophy for five years, after all.

City followed suit, in giving their number two keeper, James Trafford, his chance. But the difference in dependability between the two teams’ respective backup stoppers is night and day. Kepa has played in three League Cup finals without winning any, famously refusing to be substituted off by Maurizio Sarri before a penalty shootout in 2019 and then blasting the decisive spot-kick over the bar as Chelsea lost to Liverpool in 2022. It’s the joint-most finals played by any player in the competition’s history without ever being on the cup-winning side. Which tells you all you need to know.

“I have to do what I think is right, honest and fair,” Arteta said after the match. “It would have been very, very unfair on him [Kepa] and on the team to do something different.” A fair play award isn’t going to suffice this season, though.

David Raya is Mr Reliable. The best goalkeeper in the league. Even Europe. Would he have let Rayan Cherki’s cross slip through his hands on the hour mark to allow Nico O’Reilly to set City on the road to victory? Almost certainly not. This is where finals of the barest of margins are won and lost.

City were there for the taking in the first half. Guardiola’s offensive 4-2-4 out of possession leaves them vulnerable. But even before taking to the pitch at Wembley, the Catalan’s extraordinary 22nd semi-final or final appearance at England’s footballing home, Arsenal had the psychological edge.

Successive seasons of getting so close has given Arsenal that extra determination needed to break their Premier League title drought. So much hard work, albeit less aesthetically pleasing endeavours than previous title winners, had gone into getting the Gunners into a quadruple-threatening position.

They had City on the ropes early on. A triple save from Trafford is all that kept Arsenal at bay. From the seventh-minute onwards, until they had to throw in the kitchen sink late on, Arteta’s side did not create another open-play chance.

Some Arsenal players suggested post match that two weeks until the next game will give them time to regroup, with Arteta also claiming: “We are going to use this fire in the belly to have the most amazing two months.”

That time could, however, get into their heads and cause an overthink, allowing the jitters to creep in. Those amazing two months should have began in earnest on Sunday. Instead, the worst-possible outcome took place – Guardiola has been sparked into life.

And, more often than not, that means only one thing.

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WEMBLEY — The local boy, with a 0161 postcode on his arm, keeps Pep Guardiola’s fire burning strong. Ending Arsenal’s quadruple dreams as quickly as they had become a realistic possibility.

Nico O’Reilly is another of Guardiola’s inventions – an attacking player deployed as a full-back. He has played in six positions this season alone, but a goalscorer he is not.

The most unlikely of O’Reilly braces was a result of a devastating second-half Manchester City display that not even one of the best defensive units in Premier League history could contain.

Nico O'Reilly scores ANOTHER! pic.twitter.com/AhPZ29VCKP

— Sky Sports Football (@SkyFootball) March 22, 2026

Arsenal still have so much to play for this term, so will not be too downbeat at losing a Carabao Cup final. What is most concerning is who they lost to, and the galvanising effect it could have on a team who have made long winning streaks their calling card down the years.

Just as it did in the Bernabeu a few weeks ago, Guardiola’s 4-2-4 system left City too open in the opening exchanges.

A stunning triple save from James Trafford – getting his chance in the Carabao Cup again – kept the Gunners at bay early, after a move that sliced right through the centre of the vulnerable City rearguard.

Arsenal, however, failed to pick that final pass for the remainder of the opening period. The only threat coming, of course, from set plays. “Boring, boring Arsenal” boomed down from the City end at Wembley. In the first half, Jeremy Doku, who was hardly a huge threat, completed three dribbles alone, two more than the entire Arsenal side.

Erling Haaland, without a career goal in a final, headed City’s best first-half chance over. Slowly but surely Guardiola’s side grasped how this attritional encounter would be won – by throwing caution to the wind.

Without Ruben Dias at centre-back, City came out for the second half with a mentality akin to the great Brazilian teams of yesteryear – the best form of defence is to attack, constantly.

For 20 minutes after the break, it was all City, with wave after wave of blue endeavour proving too much for even Arsenal’s near-impenetrable defensive force.

The major surprise was the identity of that matchwinner. A day after becoming legally able to drink in the United States, two headers from a left-back halted Arsenal in their quadruple-hunting tracks.

It was somewhat churlish to think Kepa Arrizabalaga, in the Arsenal goal, was not going to have a major say in the outcome. The man who famously refused to be substituted by Chelsea boss Maurizio Sarri in 2019, took his life into his own hands when bringing Doku down outside the penalty area, receiving a yellow card.

Not done there, Kepa let Rayan Cherki’s cross, and Arsenal’s quadruple hopes, slip through his fingers, on the hour mark, O’Reilly on hand to set the ball rolling.

"Kepa's lost it, AND O'REILLY HAS STOLEN!"

Manchester City take the lead at Wembley! pic.twitter.com/L9KFaERBmn

— Sky Sports Football (@SkyFootball) March 22, 2026

Less than four minutes later, the Mancunian was on hand again to put the encounter to bed, this time from a Matheus Nunes pickout.

Somewhat uncharacteristically, Guardiola charged down the touchline to celebrate, like a mechanical hare around a greyhound track. That flame still burning on his 22nd visit to Wembley. Jurgen Klopp has the next highest number of appearances in that time, at five.

Arsenal struck the woodwork twice as they chased a way back into the match – Riccardo Calafiori flicking the base of the post and Gabriel Jesus heading against the crossbar.

The league leaders, however, got what they deserved. Don’t write this City team off on other fronts, too.

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TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR STADIUM — What did we expect? How might it have been different when Spurs are a team led by a coach without connection to the club or its players? The selection of Igor Tudor came from nowhere, which is apt since that is where he appears to be leading Tottenham Hotspur, and with his foot on the gas.  

The minimum requirement in any match is the kind of sleeves-rolled-up fight displayed by Forest and exemplified by Elliot Anderson. In a contest between two teams fighting to stay in the top tier, who had forgotten how to win in the Premier League, Spurs winless in 2026, Forest winless in eight prior to this epic flowering, you better engage your inner dog. 

Elliot, a player lauded for his calm authority and ability to keep the wheels turning in central midfield will look at the highlights and wonder if he were not playing a game of rugby such was the time he spent in contact, hustling in and out of tackles, winning some, losing others, but always competing.

And at his shoulder a swarm of unified red shirts that appeared to be operating according to a plan. At the end, manager Vito Pereira reached out to the Forest fans whilst slapping his chest as if he had known them all his life. This might be the performative standard these days but it felt authentic and reciprocal, despite his temporary station.

You would not have known Pereira was the fourth to wear the Forest tracksuit this season. Then again, the Forest support would take any to their hearts who is remotely capable of striking up a tune on a day heavy with significance like this.

Ultimately the draw at Liverpool and the win against Atletico Madrid proved ephemeral straws for Spurs, free hits, first in a match they were not expected to win at Anfield followed by a Champions League victory in a tie that was already lost.

It was not that Spurs did not try. Kevin Danso attacked every high ball as if it had his worst enemy’s face on it. Richarlison chased across the Forest defensive line tirelessly and Mathys Tel was industry personified down the left channel, but none of it felt connected. Only Archie Gray rose above the dross to at least try to impose structure and he is only 19.

The only highlight on a dismal afternoon for Spurs was the result at Villa Park, where West Ham also lost to keep Spurs out of the bottom three. The Hammers’ ineptitude might be the only thing that can save Tottenham now. But in what has become a desperate race to the bottom, even investing in the poverty of their London rivals might not be enough for a Spurs team that has returned only one point of a possible 21. 

West Ham faced the harder assignment at Villa Park yet have taken nine points in the same period. Though they have an inferior goal difference, they trail Spurs only by a point with seven games remaining. Do the math.

The fans are, of course, the ones absorbing the pain for they are the only cohort emotionally attached to the club. This was a fixture outlined for protest. Instead an estimated 15,000 gathered along the Tottenham High Road to greet the arrival of the team, waving flags and blowing horns of unconditional support.   

“Winners” was the name etched on the back of one white shirt. Since Spurs had won only twice at home all season, the first thought was irony, and then a sense of humour. Well the sun was shining and the fans were imbued by gallows optimism.

Three goals too easily conceded brought the vibe back to reality. Tudor was spared the duty of answering for the loss by a personal matter. Standing in, Bruno Saltor clung to a 20-minute period in the first half when Spurs colonised the ball if not the big moments and the support of the fans, which was more than the club deserves.

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ST JAMES’ PARK — The Tyne-Wear derby makes or breaks reputations.

After the latest frenetic, frantic and spite-flecked instalment of this rivarly Bryan Brobbey can look forward to the prospect of never having to buy a drink again on Wearside after a brutal, brilliant throwback centre-forward display culminated in a last-minute winner. But for Eddie Howe this feels like a moment of genuine peril.

If not quite staring into the abyss, a second defeat to an injury-ravaged Sunderland – and one in which his team were out-fought, he was out-thought and fans turned at the end – leaves him teetering.

As Sunderland’s players danced in front of the jubilant travelling supporters, Howe led his players in an excruciating lap of appreciation. For the first time at St James’ Park there were loud boos from many of those who remained and that felt significant. Managers don’t always come back from the sort of anger that was expressed at the end.

Newcastle’s messaging has been consistent on him: he is their man. He gets and deserves patience, however the season ends from here. A rebuild is coming. But the size of this setback is considerable and Howe looked bereft in the press conference afterwards, glassy eyed and stunned by a Sunderland team that have twice this season looked simply like they wanted it more.

Sunderland were significantly weakened by injuries to six first-team players and began tentatively. Luke O’Nien, a surprise pick at centre-back, sliced a clearance straight to Nick Woltemade, whose instinctive pass was gobbled by Anthony Gordon. One up, Newcastle had the perfect plan.

But Regis Le Bris is one of the sharpest managers in the Premier League and his team re-adjusted. In the second half they had complete control. Chemsdine Talbi equalised – Aaron Ramsdale at fault – and then late in the game, as Newcastle’s gameplan was exposed, Brobbey struck. It was no less than they deserved.

A year on from Newcastle’s historic Carabao Cup win, Howe looked flattened by a week in which he admitted he was “disappointed by his delivery”. The second half in Barcelona was bad but this was potentially ruinous: the same problems, the same lack of solutions and the same long-term issues coming home to roost in spectacular fashion.

Comfortable and in control at half-time, how could this happen to Newcastle? It is now 22 points ceded from winning positions for Howe’s side, the worst in the Premier League. They consistently seem to get worse after half-time and experiments that aren’t working – Woltemade in midfield, Joe Willock as an impact sub and Ramsdale as the first choice goalkeeper – play on loop.

They sit in 12th in the Premier League. Two defeats to rivals that have just been promoted fall well below the standards expected and there are big problems to address.

A club that proclaim they want to be competing for everything by 2030 have been hobbled by financial rules, for sure, but a lot of their problems are self-inflicted. Poor recruitment, an inability to cope with three games in a week and an ownership that has made non-existent progress on the big picture stuff. The club’s majority owners, the Saudi Public Investment Fund, need to realise their project has stalled. The end of season review has to be warts and all and at the centre of it is the biggest question: is Howe still their man?

It was a grim day all round for those of a black and white persuasion. There were skirmishes in the city before the game and the match was suspended after Lutsharel Geertruida reported discriminatory abuse. Newcastle say they are investigating.

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Brighton 2-1 Liverpool (Welbeck 14’, 56’ | Kerkez 30’)

Thirty-five: the size of Thomas Tuchel’s latest England squad, and the age of the top English goalscorer in the Premier League.

And yet somehow there is no room for Danny Welbeck in this bumper March edition, which took everyone by surprise when announced on Friday due to the sheer volume of players included.

Tuchel’s thinking, though initially baffling, did make sense through simple explanation, with the plan to rest a group of 11 trusted players – who have “credit” with the England manager – for the first friendly against Uruguay before then introducing them in the build-up and against Japan.

That group includes captain and sure-fire World Cup starter Harry Kane, who has been England’s first-choice striker for more than a decade and is in red-hot form for Bayern Munich this season (he scored one of the best goals you’ll see all year in the Champions League midweek).

If football is art, this is a masterpiece #UCL pic.twitter.com/O1VNYS1o7n

— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) March 19, 2026

The role of playing deputy to Kane is therefore an unenviable one, and it arguably pushed Jamie Vardy towards international retirement in 2018 – when only 31 – given the lack of opportunities.

Welbeck though has not given up on his dream, despite last playing for his country in September 2018.

Going into the weekend, the 35-year-old told TNT Sports that he will “push every single day” when asked about his prospects of making England’s World Cup squad.

That interview was seemingly done before Friday’s snub, which evidently placed Welbeck far down Tuchel’s striker pecking order and at least behind Dominics Calvert-Lewin and Solanke, both of whom also beat Ollie Watkins to make the cut.

By Saturday lunchtime, Welbeck swiftly exposed the flaw in Tuchel’s upcoming experiment when scoring twice for Brighton against Liverpool, taking his tally to 12 in the Premier League this season.

The flaw being: if Tuchel really did want to open the floor to potential World Cup candidates, then why has the league’s leading English scorer not been handed an audition?

It is an insult to Welbeck, and perhaps why the Brighton striker cupped his ear when celebrating his opener at the Amex.

Danny Welbeck grabs his 11th Premier League goal of the season to give Brighton the lead over Liverpool @tntsports & @discoveryplusUK pic.twitter.com/Qco71tNCJe

— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) March 21, 2026

More significantly, however, is that it is probably too late. England’s World Cup campaign starts in less than three months, and if Welbeck has not done enough to convince Tuchel by now, then he falls into the Trent Alexander-Arnold category of being overlooked for little reason.

Tuchel called it a “sporting decision” to pick full-backs Jarrell Quansah, Djed Spence and Tino Livramento over Alexander-Arnold in Reece James’ absence – a questionable call given the former Liverpool right-back’s experience at club and international level.

And presumably that is the case for Welbeck as well, the Brighton striker not matching the profile of player Tuchel will be looking to bring on when Kane either looks leggy or needs support, as was the case at Euro 2024 when Watkins emerged the semi-final hero.

Saturday’s showing would suggest Tuchel’s lack of belief is misplaced, with Welbeck’s link-up play as impressive as his spacial awareness for both goals, and if anything proving this humongous England squad was actually a tad too small.

The experiment could have been widened further, giving Welbeck a chance to show Tuchel in-person why he should head to the World Cup.

Instead, he will spend a fortnight away from an England camp where others will get the chance to impress, all while wondering why he hasn’t been given that shot too.

And the stinging reality? That there isn’t really a good enough explanation for his omission.

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When Pep Guardiola arrived on our shores, within a few years he had changed how football was played at all levels.

From The Etihad to Hackney Marshes, goalkeepers were passing it out from the back – to mixed success. Defenders were selected on their ball-playing technique as much as their prowess at winning headers. Short passes proved to be the death knell for route one.

This was Mikel Arteta’s coaching upbringing. Which makes how he has steered Arsenal in with a chance of winning an unprecedented four trophies this term all the more surprising.

And equally, all the more impressive. We may not have all warmed to the Arteta-ball philosophy of free-kicks and physicality, but Guardiola’s former assistant and protege, in his first managerial role, walked into a club famed for its tika-taka approach, having only known tiki-taka at City, and gradually built a successful side in a totally different manner.

Now, just as Guardiola managed previously, other teams up and down the land, especially in the top flight, have swapped possession for aggression and employed set-piece coaches galore to attempt to match Arsenal’s unrelenting threat from corners and free-kicks.

All except one.

“Normally it happens that the team who wins, there is a tendency to copy,” Guardiola said ahead of Sunday’s Carabao Cup final against his ex-employee. “But that is a bit of a mistake because you have to feel what you have to do.

“Otherwise, in the long term, it will not work. I don’t know for Mikel, but talking for myself, when I came here I had the intention to do something differently. I tried, just with my Man City team, to play the way we played and try to get results. The rest, if it is copy and paste, it is not my business.”

Guardiola’s game has adapted over the years. It is not all about possession, with his recent purchases consisting of fast wingers, a traditional, shot-saving goalkeeper and an old school, out-and-out number nine striker.

Yet, he is the only one, even among his elite rivals, who has not put extra focus on set-piece improvement. While Arsenal lead the way for set-piece league goals this season, City have scored 14 more from open play than any other side this term.

“They (Arsenal) play a bit different to us,” City youngster Nico O’Reilly said. “They’ve got some amazing players, individual players, they play well as a team, they know what they’re doing. Sunday’s going to be a tough game. We know that. But it’ll be a tough game for them as well.”

The respect between the two rivals is there. But Guardiola’s players – by design – think the same way as their manager. Guardiola is often asked about his footballing principles honed in the Johan Cruyffian classrooms. In part, because you will always get a full answer, one laced with passion.

More meaningful discussion is sought this season as we are not sure how long the madcap Catalan is going to stick around for. All of which plays into his stoic reluctance to follow the latest Premier League trend. One perhaps exposed on the continent this week.

"An exceptional team"

Pep Guardiola on what has impressed him most during Mikel Arteta's time as Arsenal manager. pic.twitter.com/zpROx2zw78

— Sky Sports News (@SkySportsNews) March 20, 2026

Arsenal are odds-on favourites to garner the first trophy of the season at Wembley given this is a City team in transition. So many new signings are taking time to settle in, with big-name departures like Kevin De Bruyne, Kyle Walker, Ilkay Gundogan and Ederson big shoes to fill.

Guardiola insists the new-look team is on the cusp of becoming another all-conquering City side. Which has led many to believe the 55-year-old is not done with the Premier League yet.

The legacy he leaves is very important to the City boss. He does not want to see everything he and the club’s hierarchy built laid to waste, and will not want to leave a team set up to fail from the start for his processor.

Whether he sees this latest incumbent blossom into the beautiful flower he thinks it can remains to be seen. What he will do in the meantime, though, is all he can to ensure elements of those attacking, open-play principles live on long into the future.

Nothing, no trophies or personal accolades, would give him more pleasure.

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Defeat in a big European game in midweek, derby at the weekend. Newcastle United (and Sunderland) have been here before – and the aftershocks of that earthquake in April 2013 were felt for a long time.

The Magpies started that week with the tantalising prospect of a Europa League semi-final if they could overturn Benfica. But with Premier League form plateauing, a game against Paolo Di Canio’s Sunderland three days later felt just as seismic.

In the event, they exited Europe on their shield, denied by a late goal at St James’ Park after Hatem Ben Arfa had missed a glorious opportunity to take the game to extra time.

Alan Pardew had split the squad in two to cope with both games, and then lost 3-0 to Sunderland in a game that began the Black Cats’ modern-day dominance of the derby.

“Hellish” is how the former Newcastle boss describes it 13 years on.

“Trying to field a fresh team to counter the magnitude of the occasion proved too much for our slim squad,” Pardew tells The i Paper.

“We were a shadow of the team we could be on the Sunday, way below our levels. Defeat started a very low period for our staff and squad. It’s hard to explain unless you understand the fixture’s consequences.”

Pardew belongs in a select group of bosses who can appreciate the dilemma Eddie Howe faces this week. Newcastle broke new ground just by getting to Barcelona. Their season, and possibly Howe’s Magpies tenure, will feel broken if they lose on Sunday.

The Tyne-Wear derby is that kind of game. The rivalry is so bitter, the emotions so entrenched, that it has proved make-or-break for many managers down the years.

A derby win in his second game launched Gus Poyet’s Sunderland tenure with the Uruguayan telling The i Paper it gave him “legitimacy” in the eyes of fans. But Michael Beale lasted just five weeks after a meek FA Cup defeat to Newcastle in 2024, the surrender a symbol of his passivity.

Chris Hughton tells The i Paper that before the 5-1 win that he oversaw in October 2010 he knew he was on borrowed time with Mike Ashley. Contract talks had stalled and “there was a lot going on behind the scenes” but his players delivered and it changed his life.

“It was a difficult period personally but the outcome couldn’t have been any greater,” he says.

“My thought at the time was ‘If we have a bad spell, I don’t know how long I’m going to be here’. So when I won that game it was a huge relief, a huge release of pressure.”

Pardew experienced both sides of it. In 2012 Newcastle began the season against a backdrop of suspicion after they had sold big players like Kevin Nolan and Joey Barton. Jose Enrique had tweeted his displeasure from a pre-season tour. It felt like things were falling apart.

And then they won at Sunderland it everything changed. “It was bigger than I imagined,” Pardew admits. “The passion from the stands made my hair – or what was left of it – stand on end. I probably didn’t realise how big it was in the North East before then.”

When he started losing the derbies – Poyet also oversaw a 3-0 win at St James’ Park – Pardew felt it sometimes had an oversized impact on fan feelings. A 90th minute defeat to the Black Cats in December 2014 was his penultimate game in charge as he left for Crystal Palace.

For Howe the situation is different. Backed by the ownership he has delivered over four years and is still overwhelmingly popular with a majority of supporters. But this year has been bruising and damaging.

Sunderland recreating the photo that Newcastle took last time the two teams met at the Stadium of Light pic.twitter.com/0hBjfecUja

— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) December 14, 2025

The defeat at the Stadium of Light in the winter was significant: Newcastle played poorly and the respective statuses of the teams meant it was not a good look.

That explains his strong – at least by Howe’s usually measured standards – quotes about his team needing to play “as if their life depended on it” on Sunday. It might feel dramatic, but this game is vital to shape the narrative around Newcastle’s entire season.

For Sunderland, Regis Le Bris is in huge credit. But a drop off in form means there’s not quite the feel-good factor around the Black Cats there was a few weeks ago. Winning this weekend would change that conclusively.

Could lightning strike twice? “Eddie’s navigated this European season with aplomb. The squad is much bigger than mine was but still not at the level of Arsenal, so drop off after Europe is understandable,” Pardew says.

“My heart says a Newcastle win, my head says draw or defeat.”

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