The Premier League relegation battle remains a nine-way scrap but the formbook makes for ominous reading if you support any of the bottom three sides.
Nottingham Forest, Leicester and Southampton have not picked up a win in at least their past five games – nine for Forest, eight for Leicester – and that is a period in which the six clubs above them have won at least twice, bar Everton.
That has stretched the gap to 10 points between 12th-placed Crystal Palace and basement-club Southampton. It had been just four points at the end of March.
And with the season concluding on 28 May, a six-week flurry in which most clubs have eight games remaining should mean more teams pulling clear of the drop zone.
But with “six-pointers” to come in spades, including a potentially spicy final-day fixture at Goodison Park, predicting the outcome would be a fool’s game: so scroll down below to view i’s predictions…
And before it, a club-by-club preview of where and when this fight could get heated.
Premier League table
Crystal Palace
Remaining fixtures: Southampton (a), Everton (h), Wolves (a), West Ham (h), Tottenham (a), Bournemouth (h), Fulham (a), Nottingham Forest (h)
In Roy Hodgson, Crystal Palace fans can trust the survival mission will soon be complete. Patrick Vieira is right to feel aggrieved given his sacking before a favourable set of fixtures, but with four winnable home matches Palace should be home and dry by mid-May – you would expect.
Wolves
Remaining fixtures: Brentford (h), Leicester (a), Crystal Palace (h), Brighton (a), Aston Villa (h), Man Utd (a), Everton (h), Arsenal (a)
Wolves spent the World Cup break languishing in the relegation zone but have not dropped back in since a 1-0 win over West Ham on 14 January. Home defeats since to both Bournemouth and Leeds, contrasted by wins over Chelsea and Tottenham, have made for a tumultuous ride, and the 22 April match at Leicester could well dictate whether Wolves pull clear or get dragged back in. The four-point advantage over 18th gives them a cushion, and it should be enough with potentially only two more wins needed.
West Ham
Remaining fixtures: Arsenal (h), Bournemouth (a), Liverpool (h), Crystal Palace (a), Man City (a), Man Utd (h), Brentford (a), Leeds (h), Leicester (a)
With a game in hand, West Ham have a buffer, but that could soon be wiped out unless they halt Arsenal in their tracks on Sunday. The Hammers have made a habit of winning some crucial match-ups – at home to Everton, Nottingham Forest and Southampton this year – and next Sunday’s match at Bournemouth falls into that must-win category. With the best defence among the bottom nine, and a squad with greater experience than those below them, six points could be enough to stay up, but nothing in that run-in screams guarantee. In fact, anything but, and it could get a little too close for comfort.
Bournemouth
Remaining fixtures: Tottenham (a), West Ham (h), Southampton (a), Leeds (h), Chelsea (h), Crystal Palace (a), Man Utd (h), Everton (a)
Lose, win, lose, win, lose, win. Bournemouth’s topsy-turvy run has at least garnered enough points to lift them out of the relegation zone for the first time since January – the win at Leicester enough to rise three places in the table to 15th. However, with the league’s worst defence (57 goals conceded), and a difficult final-four fixtures – the tougher teams at home, relegation rivals away – it could be a last-day match for the ages at Goodison Park.
Leeds
Remaining fixtures: Liverpool (h), Fulham (a), Leicester (h), Bournemouth (a), Man City (a), Newcastle (h), West Ham (a), Tottenham (h)
Leeds are slowly slipping down the table. From third in August to 12th during the World Cup break, now they sit 16th after a heavy 5-1 loss at home to Crystal Palace. Leeds are box-office viewing, with both teams scoring in each of their last five matches, and that unpredictability makes for short nails among the Elland Road faithful. They will point towards home games against Leicester, Newcastle, Tottenham and even Liverpool this weekend as their chance to stay up, but trips to Bournemouth and West Ham could be decisive.
Everton
Remaining fixtures: Fulham (h), Crystal Palace (a), Newcastle (h), Leicester (a), Brighton (a), Man City (h), Wolves (a), Bournemouth (h)
It does not seem far-fetched to suggest Everton may struggle to pick up points away from home, so it’s all eyes on Goodison Park, including the aforementioned final-day match against Bournemouth. That said, the Monday night trip to Leicester on 1 May is one to circle in the six-pointer diary, and as the league’s lowest scorers this season – 23, the same as Harry Kane – Sean Dyche will need his forwards to step up, and Dominic Calvert-Lewin to recover from a thigh injury sooner rather than later.
Nottingham Forest
Remaining fixtures: Man Utd (h), Liverpool (a), Brighton (h), Brentford (a), Southampton (h), Chelsea (a), Arsenal (h), Crystal Palace (a)
The chorus of gulps from worried Nottingham Forest fans can be heard from outside the East Midlands. That is a run-in which does not bode well for a side currently in the relegation zone, and so a shock or two is needed for Forest, who currently have the worst goal difference in the league. The 8 May showdown with Southampton could be the sink-or-swim moment that gives one side hope for the final three games, and hands the other a season-long date with the second tier.
Leicester
Remaining fixtures: Man City (a), Wolves (h), Leeds (a), Everton (h), Fulham (a), Liverpool (h), Newcastle (a), West Ham (h)
After bemoaning the timing of Brendan Rodgers’ dismissal, Leicester fans must now get behind firefighter Dean Smith in their bid to avoid relegation, starting with… ah, a trip to Manchester City. Okay, scrub that one off and look ahead, with home matches against Wolves, Everton, Liverpool and West Ham making for a quartet of winnable games, especially if Liverpool are on the proverbial beach by 15 May. Leicester should not be in this position, but they are, and it may take at least three wins to preserve their Premier League status. A parting gift from James Maddison, likely to leave this summer with his contract expiring next summer, would do just nicely.
Southampton
Remaining fixtures: Crystal Palace (h), Arsenal (a), Bournemouth (h), Newcastle (a), Nottingham Forest (a), Fulham (h), Brighton (a), Liverpool (h)
No prizes for guessing where the club who have made two managerial changes sit, so is there any hope for a Saints side who have been in the bottom three since November? Five matches without a win would suggest not, so too the speed in which the four-point gap to Palace became 10. They face the Eagles at home on Saturday. Lose and there could be no coming back.
Predicting the Premier League table
Here goes… When predicting the remaining fixtures, here’s the outcome (DMs welcome – it’s just a guess, after all).
- 11) Crystal Palace – 48pts
- 12) Fulham – 44pts
- 13) Wolves – 41pts
- 14) Leicester – 38pts
- 15) Leeds – 36pts
- 16) Everton – 36pts
- 17) West Ham – 34pts (GD -23)
- 18) Nottingham Forest – 34pts (GD -36)
- 19) Bournemouth – 33pts
- 20) Southampton – 31pts
Prediction takeaways
Firstly, sorry to Fulham fans – whose side are currently on a four-match losing streak – as you get leapfrogged by Palace.
A little further down, we have goal difference deciding 18th, and Bournemouth to slip back into the relegation zone.
It’s tight, though, and going into the final day we have Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest, West Ham, Everton, Leeds and even Leicester in with a shout of going down.
Our table after 37 games has Everton and Bournemouth joining Southampton in the drop zone, so yes, expect anything – and as we predicted, Everton vs Bournemouth could be pivotal.
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