Newcastle are out of Europe after running out of steam against AC Milan.
It was a brutal denouement to a rollercoaster campaign that saw Eddie Howe’s side ultimately come up short in the so-called group of death. But perspective is required: their approach was bold, their opponents high calibre and Newcastle were very close.
Here’s the breakdown of what happened – and what comes next.
What went wrong?
No-one from Newcastle will say it publicly – there is a collective vow from players, management and executives not to mention absences or fatigue for fearing of sending out the wrong messages – but injuries have ended up costing them dearly. They have played big games without their biggest players and sooner or later that is going to catch up with you.
Players have also been privately playing through the pain. Dan Burn admitted after the game that he “could have done with another couple of weeks” recovery in an ideal world but he has rushed back from a back problem to help the club through their injury crisis.
Others – Kieran Trippier, Alexander Isak, Callum Wilson and Bruno Guimaraes spring to mind – look as if they are operating at less than 100 per cent.
A devastated Howe spoke of his “pride” in the group and they did not look out of place among European royalty in Group F but there were missteps.
They failed to gain any sort of foothold in the back-to-back games against Borussia Dortmund and the last 20 minutes against Milan were chaotic. Newcastle also conceded costly late goals in their final two games, raising questions about inexperience and game management.
Their commitment to go for broke on Wednesday night knowing a goal would have earned them the golden ticket of a last-16 place made for dramatic entertainment but ultimately cost them a place in the Europa League. That decision split opinion on Tyneside.
The jury is still out on whether the European adventure came a year or two too early but in the cold light of day it’s clear there is still so much work to be done at St James’ Park. They did not look outclassed in the Champions League but at times they looked outgunned.
There are areas where they are in need of upgrades: across the forward line, in the heart of midfield and in the centre of defence they need to add international calibre players to ensure that the next time they arrive in the Champions League the key moments turn in their favour.
Newcastle’s owners have lofty aims of emulating Real Madrid but the last three months have shown the scale of the challenge that lies ahead. It will take time and lots of money to get anywhere close to bridging that gap.
Will there be any regrets?
At times during the last three months Howe has looked ready to step into the fraternity of elite European coaches. He laid traps for Paris Saint-Germain that nearly earned them an impressive double over a team with aspirations to go deep in the competition.
But injuries robbed him of his ability to change things – both in terms of team selection and during games – and mean some of the questions about Howe at the highest level remain unanswered.
Sandro Tonali’s suspension was hugely costly. He did not look up to speed or emotionally ready for his return to the San Siro but he was signed for moments like Wednesday night, when Newcastle needed a calm head to held them control the game.
The biggest regret? One beyond their control. Their reaction to landing in the group of death was admirably defiant but an easier draw would have given them a chance to learn on the job. A “gimme” or two might have increased the margin for error but with the quality of their opponents, moments of indecision were severely punished. They improved as the campaign went on but it wasn’t enough.
What positives will Newcastle take?
Firstly, they can take pride in the fact they did not look out of place in any of their games. “We’ve played three of the best teams in the Champions League so to put in the performances we did, albeit it not to progress, I am very proud of the team,” Burn said afterwards.
At just 17, Lewis Miley has also excelled, making the most of opportunities afforded by injuries.
Off the field, the club’s executives have used their trips to three huge European clubs as mini fact-finding experiences.
They have been taking notes on everything from club shops to hospitality offerings and it will surely inform the next step of the club’s transformation.
Is Howe now under pressure?
The short answer is no. The manner of the exit and the mitigation of injuries – allied to the fact that he had performed a minor miracle getting them there in the first place – insulate him from the sort of thudding questions arriving at Erik ten Hag’s door.
Co-owners Mehrdad Ghodoussi and Amanda Staveley have offered public and private support to Howe, who they have publicly claimed can be “Newcastle’s Sir Alex Ferguson”. Nothing has changed that view.
Having said that, the Saudi PIF majority owners remain an unknown factor. They are hugely ambitious and have been pleased with the pace of improvement. Nobody knows quite how demanding they are, although insiders point out to how process-driven they are. As long as Newcastle are generally trending upwards they will be satisfied.
Three defeats have not set alarm bells ringing in the dressing room.
“Internally we don’t panic, we believe in the philosophy that the gaffer’s got,” Burn said.
“We understand we’re going through a tough period. I don’t want to use injuries as an excuse as it’s an easy way out and we know the last couple of (Premier League) performances haven’t been up to what we expect but there’s no panic from us.
“If you have a little bit of perspective on how far we’ve come in a short space of time I think we’ve done very well.”
Those words seem eminently sensible. Newcastle have a big Carabao Cup quarter-final at Chelsea next week, and an even bigger FA Cup trip to Sunderland in the New Year. Win both and the disappointment of Wednesday will soon evaporate.
How will Newcastle’s hierarchy respond?
As i reported on Monday, the club are prepared to act in January to regain momentum lost from injuries and absences. Newcastle will be active in the next transfer window, likely fast-tracking some of the moves that were ear-marked for the summer.
There will be no panic buying but the club “sense checks” their major decisions and there has been an acknowledgement that a short-term injection of Premier League experience may be required. Kalvin Phillips is a priority, although Howe dismissed talk that the deal was already done.
i understands the message from the boardroom is one of support. They cannot afford to keep losing games but there is a belief that when players return, so too will the form.
Either way it feels like a critical point in the club’s growth – what they do next is fascinating.
How much will early exit cost them?
It is not insignificant. A place in the last 16 was worth a minimum of £15m to Newcastle, with the potential to more than double that by making the quarter-finals.
The knock on exposure would have also helped boost commercial revenue which will be key to helping the club fund future signings.
Missing out on the less lucrative Europa League play-off round would have cost them around £5m. Winning that competition comes with a £20m prize and a guaranteed place in the Champions League – something that is priceless given that it now looks as if only a top four place will return Newcastle to the top table next season.
“Having tasted what it is like we’re desperate to get back,” Joelinton said on Wednesday night. For millions of reasons, the rest of the club will agree.
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