Given that England have won all seven of their games against San Marino with an aggregate scoreline of 42-1, Gareth Southgate was never likely to field his strongest side on Monday evening.
With Jordan Henderson, Jack Grealish, Raheem Sterling, Mason Mount and Luke Shaw all withdrawing from the squad on Sunday, however, Southgate has been left with little choice but to rotate.
Henderson and Grealish have returned to Liverpool and Manchester City respectively for further assessment on injuries, Mount is recovering from dental surgery and Shaw is still recuperating after a concussion sustained in the Manchester derby, while Sterling misses out for personal reasons.
Southgate has confirmed that he intends to experiment with his line-up when England make the trip to the landlocked European microstate
. “We will make changes, definitely,” he said after the Three Lions’ 5-0 win against Albania on Friday.
“We will make quite a few changes, but what we’ve done well in the past is sustain good performances even with those changes.”
Southgate seems open to sticking with the attack-minded 3-4-3 formation he deployed against Albania, having switched from 4-3-3 after England’s lacklustre showing against Hungary in October. “I think systems can be very attacking and the wing-back system can be very attacking if you’ve got the right profile of players,” he went on.
“Balance is hugely important in any team because when you’re playing against packed defences it’s not just the ability to open them up with the ball. To win the ball high up the pitch and put them under pressure and force errors is very often the route to break the deadlock, or set plays are often the route to break the deadlock.”
San Marino are almost certain to turtle up against England so, once again, they will need to find ways to break down a massed defence. With that in mind, here’s how Southgate could set up his side in Serravalle.
Defence
Following his excellent form for Arsenal in recent weeks, this would be a good opportunity to start Aaron Ramsdale in goal. He’s certainly done enough to merit his first senior cap, though this fixture isn’t exactly set up to showcase the talents of the England goalkeeper.
Having fielded Kyle Walker, John Stones and Harry Maguire as his back three against Albania, Southgate is likely to swap two out of three and give Conor Coady and Tyrone Mings a turn.
Stones has had the lightest workload so far this season, so it’d make sense for him to stay.
Probable starters: Ramsdale; Stones, Coady, Mings
Midfield
If Southgate opts to stick with wing-backs, they’ll be expected to play the vast majority of the match in San Marino’s final third.
Trent Alexander-Arnold is the obvious choice at right wing-back, while Chilwell will have to start on the opposite flank in the absence of Shaw.
Jude Bellingham should get a run out in the middle of the park, though he could do with a more experienced partner to help him maintain the tempo. Given his limited options, Southgate may start Phillips once again before reshuffling to accommodate Conor Gallagher as the game wears on.
Probable starters: Chilwell; Phillips, Bellingham; Alexander-Arnold
Attack
Arsenal have had great success with Emile Smith Rowe and Bukayo Saka on opposite flanks recently, so Southgate has the perfect chance to cosplay as Mikel Arteta for the day.
That leaves Tammy Abraham to start up front, with Foden and Kane as options from the bench.
While Tottenham might prefer to see Kane rested against San Marino, he’ll be keen to continue his quest to become England’s all-time top goalscorer. He only needs 10 goals to surpass Wayne Rooney’s record and, after a perfect hat-trick against Albania, he’ll fancy his chances of reducing that deficit further even if he plays a supporting role.
Probable starters: Smith Rowe, Abraham, Saka
Predicted England team (3-4-3): Ramsdale; Stones, Coady, Mings; Alexander-Arnold, Bellingham, Phillips, Chilwell; Smith Rowe, Saka, Abraham.
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