Arsenal
There are plenty of words here about Arsenal’s new vogue, and I’m desperately hoping that this can be the end of the interminable lurches between hope and despair that have haunted Arsenal under Mikel Arteta. Consistency might not be particularly attractive to the writer, but it’s time for Arsenal to commit to an era of hope. Nine of the 10 youngest starting XIs in the Premier League this season have been selected by Arteta. That really does feel like a meaningful statistic.
But it would also be remiss not to pick out Aaron Ramsdale for special praise, given the manner in which the away end at the King Power stadium saluted their new No 1 after the game and sang his name throughout. There was some doubt (*raises hand sheepishly*) about Ramsdale’s worth given the transfer fee and given that Arsenal already had Bernd Leno, but he has transformed Arsenal.
The usual cliche about non-elite goalkeepers is “he’s a good shot stopper but…”; Ramsdale turns that on his head. His distribution made him attractive to Arteta and we have quickly seen why. Ramsdale is not averse to launching the ball forward if the situation demands it, but he prefers the low, driven pass between the lines into midfield that allows Arsenal to switch focus from defence to attack in one go.
The concerns over Ramsdale surrounded his shot-stopping. At times at Sheffield United and Bournemouth, he seemed to allow shots to pass him high in the middle of the goal. But those doubts have evaporated. FBREF.com calculates post-shot expected goals, which roughly translates as the ability of a goalkeeper to save shots. At 0.31 per 90 minutes, he’s conceding 0.31 goals per game fewer than xG would expect, Ramsdale ranks first of all Premier League goalkeepers this season. That expensive luxury purchase suddenly appears to be a bargain.
Aston Villa
I’m sorry if this week’s column comes across as a managerial sacking special, but Dean Smith starts us off. There were reports on Sunday morning that Smith needed to address Aston Villa’s recent slump or face serious questions from his superiors. If this was the reaction, losing 4-1 at home to West Ham and having a man sent off, spending the last 20 minutes with the dropped Tyrone Mings playing as an emergency striker, it doesn’t bode well.
Smith deserves plenty of sympathy here. He is clearly a victim of his own success, taking Villa back to the Premier League and consolidating them when that is never easy. Villa have indeed struggled this season, but the top flight has become ridden with angst thanks to a bunched mid-table and a fear of relegation at a time when that would be an economic disaster.
But then Smith cannot say that he has not been backed. Villa have spent more than £300m on transfer fees alone since promotion. They sold their best player in the summer, and that was always going to cause a hangover, but when you sign 14 players for more than £10m in two-and-a-half years it suggests that your club has aspirations far beyond bottom-half slogging. Smith must respond and prove that he is the right man to take Villa forward in the post-Jack Grealish era.
Brentford
Perhaps we overreacted to Brentford’s excellent form in their first seven matches and if that is the case, it would be foolish to do the same now they are losing games. All promoted clubs suffer a slump; what defines their seasons is their ability to find a speedy solution.
But two things have changed in the last week that may make us reassess Brentford a little. Firstly, although they were unfortunate to lose against Chelsea and Leicester, the same was not true this weekend. Brentford were outplayed by Burnley in the first half, allowing Sean Dyche’s team to take 10 shots before the break and effectively out of the contest after 36 minutes. That inability to cope with an opposition, being outfought and out-thought by them, is new.
And Brentford have also lost goalkeeper David Raya for a considerable period of time. Alvaro Fernandez was not severely at fault for any of Burnley’s three goals, but Raya was one of the fundamental parts of Brentford’s rise to the Premier League and it is possible that the defenders in front of him will suffer badly from the lack of familiarity with Fernandez.
Brighton
Brighton supporters may not thank me for focusing on their manager rather than a magnificent second-half performance, but these feel like a defining few weeks in Graham Potter’s managerial career. If that says plenty about the undue focus on Premier League performance, given Potter’s over-achievement in Sweden, that doesn’t change the reality: what happens in England’s top flight matters more than anywhere else.
It is an interesting time to be an excellent coach of a non-elite club. Tottenham and Manchester United’s managers are both under serious pressure. The new norm has been to wonder which foreign manager will be the next import to the Premier League – Lucien Favre, Paulo Fonseca, Zinedine Zidane, Erik Ten Hag. The last British coach appointed by a “Big Six” club was Tim Sherwood at Tottenham, before him David Moyes at Manchester United. Both of those lasted less than a full season in charge.
But Potter is now well-placed to be seriously considered for these roles. He has proven himself capable of building a team that punches above its weight, coaches players meticulously and plays front-foot, aesthetically satisfying football. If Tottenham have a chance to replace Nuno with Potter, they would be mad not to go for it.
Burnley
From this column last week: “In 214 minutes this season, Cornet has scored 43 per cent of Burnley’s goals, has the second-highest expected goals figure of any Burnley player and has got 71 per cent of his shots on target (no other Burnley player is above 50 per cent).”
And now for the update: in 282 minutes this season, Cornet has scored 40 per cent of Burnley’s goals, still has the second-highest expected goals figure of any Burnley player and has now got 75 per cent of his shots on target (no other Burnley player is above 40 per cent).
Six weeks ago, we were wondering whether Sean Dyche would compromise his principles to pick Cornet as an attacking left-back. Now he’s their most threatening attacking player and Burnley supporters must be wondering whether their club might invest a little more in attacking flair.
Chelsea
This Chelsea league season feels eerily similar to 2016-17, when they won the title. The early season stumbles (Liverpool and Arsenal that season, Liverpool and Manchester City this) were followed by a long sequence of victories.
Antonio Conte’s Chelsea won 13 on the spin in the league and Thomas Tuchel’s team only have four so far, but the manner in which they are emphatic when they can be and resilient when they need to be is the same. Chelsea have won those last four games by an aggregate scoreline of 14-1. They play only two more current top-six sides (Manchester United and West Ham) before the end of the calendar year.
It doesn’t stop there. In 2016-17, Chelsea had a wide variety of goalscorers: eight different players scored five or more times in the league, including Marcos Alonso and Gary Cahill. This season already, four players already have three or more goals, including Ben Chilwell and Reece James. In the Premier League alone, Chelsea can boast 16 different goalscorers.
And then there’s the formation. After the defeat to Arsenal in September, Conte switched to the same 3-4-2-1 shape that Tuchel has been using in recent games. Both formations aim to get the wing-backs high up the pitch, either to overlap and provide crosses, or underlap if the two players behind the striker have drifted wide. It’s just as devastatingly effective as it was then.
It will be far harder to win the Premier League now than it was then. Eighty-seven points would have been enough for the title and 79 for third place and those parameters might well shift with Manchester City and Liverpool pushing hard. But right now Chelsea look like they have the best combination of coach, squad depth, a low number of Afcon headaches (if Kepa’s cup form holds) and excellent form.
Crystal Palace
Now that’s more like it. Patrick Vieira is not the first Crystal Palace manager to cause a recent upset away at Manchester City, but this was everything we have wanted from Vieira’s side. They were effective on the counter-attack and dealt brilliantly with City’s stop-start pressure to make one of the best attacks in the country look decidedly meek.
Last week, this column wondered whether Vieira might be better off compromising slightly on his possession-based philosophy, taking care not to throw the baby out with the bathwater given that Palace have the ingredients to excel on the counter-attack. That might have happened through necessity rather than design against City (who always dominate the ball at home), but it worked a treat. Palace soaked up pressure and then quickly moved through the lines to expose gaps in City’s defence. Wilfried Zaha had his best game of the season so far.
When you’re on a run of draws (Palace had registered four in a row before Saturday), how that run ends becomes increasingly crucial in determining whether you are perceived as moving forwards or backwards. For that reason, this didn’t just feel like a breakout afternoon for Vieira at Palace, but for his coaching career in general.
Everton
Simple one this. Everton go to Molineux on Monday evening with Rafael Benitez acutely aware that he must juggle the necessity for a response to the defensive horror show against Watford with supporters’ demands that Everton must not become overly defensive. And he must do it without Abdoulaye Doucoure (their best central midfielder this season) and Dominic Calvert-Lewin. Another 90 minutes of Salomon Rondon barely moving in a 2-0 defeat and Benitez should expect another cavalcade of criticism.
Leeds United
By no means the perfect performance, and there was plenty of dark humour when Leeds conceded a minute after finally taking the lead, but nobody was in any mood for anything other than celebratory relief after they finally broke their winless run.
Leeds still allowed far more chances than is ideal against the worst team in the division. They occasionally misplaced passes in infuriating fashion and regularly seemed as if they might offer Norwich hope in escaping from their own nightmare, but when you have Raphinha you always have a chance. Until the goals, this felt like a match between two of the worst three teams in the Premier League. Raphinha was the game-changer and the difference maker. Leeds fans don’t need telling twice how lucky they are to have him.
Leicester City
You can read more about Leicester’s sluggish first-half performance and continued woes when defending set-piece situations here, but there is a growing theme of Leicester City as a “roll the dice” team; some weeks (as against Manchester United) they overpower opponents with pressing intent and midfield intensity, other times they look worrying flat and allow opposition teams to gain an upper hand.
Brendan Rodgers also needs another central defender in January. Jannik Vestergaard was a good emergency signing after Wesley Fofana broke his leg, but managers usually like to operate with one mobile central defender and one physical centre-back. Caglar Soyuncu can win headers, but his positioning and confidence are clearly lacking. Rodgers went to three centre-backs to try and address those issues, but it’s now 10 goals conceded in five matches and no clean sheet in the league since the opening day. If they are to push for a top-six finish, that record has to change.
Liverpool
Two points dropped, of that there is no doubt having held a 2-0 lead. Some ground ceded in what could be a marathon run by sprinters who still have the stamina to see it through. Not a disaster – Brighton were brilliant and Manchester City dropped more points than Liverpool, but a setback. A setback that angered Jurgen Klopp, who felt that the body language of certain players was not up to scratch.
Of greater concern are the midfield options that seem to lessen with each passing week. Fabinho is injured, Thiago Alcantara is injured, James Milner is injured, Naby Keita got injured (probably having been rushed back due to other absentees) and Curtis Jones probably had his worst game in a red shirt, taking too many touches and being crowded out by an opponent who he should have known would try and do exactly that. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain is many things, but he probably isn’t the next cab off the midfield rank for a title-chasing team. Not anymore, anyway.
Liverpool haven’t missed Georginio Wijnaldum often this season (and he’s hardly having much fun in Paris), but against Brighton they could have done with that drive from midfield, that ability to keep hold of the ball long enough to frustrate and opponent but not long enough to frustrate his teammates. Liverpool thrived without Fabinho at Old Trafford because their opponents were unable to press hard enough in midfield. Graham Potter saw that failure and chose the opposite approach.
The body language argument of Klopp’s is open to interpretation; he has rarely questioned the attitude of his players and it may have been designed to stir a reaction ahead of Atletico Madrid on Wednesday. But the midfield problem is far more tangible. On some afternoons, Liverpool will extend their leads to a large enough margin that it doesn’t matter. On others, like Saturday, a “caution to the wind” opponent will expose the absentees. Get well soon, Thiago and Fabinho.
Manchester City
What an utterly bizarre start to a league season. At their best, Manchester City have looked like the best team in Europe. But every time we think they have found a permanent answer to questions about the lack of a No 9, along comes a result to give us – and Pep Guardiola – a headache.
Three consecutive league victories (aggregate scoreline 11-0) followed by the goalless draw against Southampton. 10 points from four matches (the exception being the draw at Anfield when City were dominant for long periods) followed by a home defeat to Crystal Palace. If we’re struggling to diagnose the issue or foresee the setback, we’re not alone. Guardiola was perplexed post-game, insisting that he couldn’t explain the issues.
If previous seasons have provided a blueprint for surprise City defeats, a host of missed chances and spurned attacks followed by Guardiola’s side being punished on the counter, that isn’t really the case this season. Against Southampton and Palace, the problem wasn’t converting high-quality chances but creating them. That rather undermines the “need a centre forward” argument.
Is this a Jack Grealish issue? Maybe, maybe not. Grealish is comfortably City’s most creative player (26 chances created, no other player has more than 14), but then there is a train of thought that he is too dominant. City’s brilliance was founded upon the sheer variety of options they had in terms of chance creation. Last season they had 11 players who created between 1.0 and 2.0 chances per league game; this season they only have five. And Grealish’s arrival has clearly broken Raheem Sterling’s confidence.
Either way, Guardiola must iron out these clumsy home performances. One option – until De Bruyne is fully fit – would be to move to a 4-2-3-1, with Ilkay Gundogan alongside Rodri and Grealish central with any three of Bernardo Silva, Phil Foden, Sterling, Ferran Torres and Riyad Mahrez occupying the other three positions.
Manchester United
Solskjaer’s job is safe for now. In a sense, this was the perfect opponent: no obvious strategy, unable to service their best players, a manager that simply isn’t working out and yet to win an away game against a “Big Six” team that actually meant something. Had United won at Burnley or Wolves, arguably harder places to go than the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium at the moment, it would have been merely viewed as meeting expectations. On Saturday, United surpassed them.
And Solskjaer deserves credit for the courage of his team selection. He changed the shape, moving to a back three and sacrificed attacking speed (no Martial, Sancho, Greenwood or Rashford) in favour of just about the most workmanlike starting XI you could envisage with this Manchester United squad. It made emphatically clever that the creative responsibility lay with Bruno Fernandes, but then that was the scenario in which Bruno thrived when he first arrived. His ball to Cristiano Ronaldo was just as delicious as the finish.
Beating Spurs – this Spurs – does not solve Solskjaer’s myriad problems. Leaving those attacking options on the bench probably isn’t sustainable and let’s meet here again if they beat Atalanta and avoid defeat against Manchester City next weekend; Liverpool will last longer in the mind than Tottenham. But Solskjaer knew that only through comprehensive victory could he allay any of the immediate fears about his position. On that point, job well done.
Newcastle United
New owners have enjoyed longer honeymoons than Newcastle’s. There was the righteous (and right) indignation about Saudi sportswashing, the grim last days of Steve Bruce, shambolic home defeats to Chelsea and Tottenham and a worrying silence about Bruce’s replacement. All the while Newcastle have slipped further into relegation trouble.
The lack of obvious managerial candidates is a little strange. The owners can be forgiven for being taken by surprise at the speed at which the takeover went through and for wanting to appoint a sporting director first, but that position has not yet been filled. Newcastle supporters needed some certainty to offset on-pitch misery and, as yet, there has been little public communication about the search for either the manager or director of football.
Graeme Jones doesn’t deserve much censure for sacrificing possession and territory and trying to make Newcastle hard to beat, but in the eyes of supporters he too is now being tainted by failure. The reality is that Newcastle are more likely to go down than when the takeover went through. This is becoming an emergency situation.
Norwich City
A result that sums up Norwich’s season. If that feels a hasty assessment after 10 games, ask any supporter if they honestly believe their team can still stay up. As October becomes November, Norwich are eight points from safety and their goal difference adds an extra half point on. Conceding 25 goals in 10 games is disturbing; scoring three times in 10 games is just woeful.
Norwich had 14 shots and only scored once; nothing new there. Norwich conceded twice; that’s slightly better than their season average. They wasted any cause for positivity in the first half after the break with a goal scored by a player with more quality than they possess and eventually lost the game to an abysmal individual error.
And it’s probably time for Daniel Farke to lose his job, as sad as that is and as unlikely as they are to replace him with anything better. The alternative (and it’s not without merit given Farke’s record in the Championship) is to admit defeat in the limp fight against relegation with 28 games still to play. That makes for a long season for any season ticket holder or away supporter.
Southampton
If the Southampton dream of punching way above their weight and contesting for a place in the top eight has died (and their recent investment suggests that it probably has), this type of fixture becomes hugely important in determining their natural place in the Premier League. Lose them and talk of crisis rises in volume; win them and you can reasonably believe that there is a floor in place to catch your fall.
Victory was ostensibly provided by Che Adams’ wonderful lofted finish over Ben Foster, typical of a striker who misses more chances than he scores but has an appetite for the spectacular. But it was platformed by one of Southampton’s most cohesive defensive displays in some time.
Kyle Walker-Peters somehow cleared the ball off the line with his rear end (is that the technical term?), Mohammed Salisu is never happier than when heading clear crosses, Alex McCarthy produced an excellent reaction save from Ashley Fletcher to secure a point and Tino Livramento continues his unlikely campaign for the Young Player of the Year award with his surges down the right wing.
Southampton are not strong enough, and their squad is not deep enough, to be consistent over a long period. But that only makes afternoons such as this, when away supporters can emotionally invest in a team that they believe is doing all they can to establish and protect a lead, more special.
Tottenham
At the time of writing, Nuno Espirito Santo is still in a job but it seems only a matter of time until is clearing his desk. It’s tempting to have sympathy with managers at a time when so many are under serious risk of being sacked, but then Nuno has done precious little to suggest that he deserves any more time or faith.
This is hardly on him. Tottenham faffed and fluffed their recruitment after sacking Jose Mourinho (and that was a bad appointment in the first place). Nuno was, at best, their fourth choice and hardly seemed a good fit given that Daniel Levy had publicly insisted that the style of play was crucial.
But he has failed to even match the lowest expectations. Watching Tottenham on Saturday evening, it was hard to work out what their attacking strategy even was. They are slow in build-up, stodgy in midfield and therefore allow opponents to cover Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min. Those two players obviously don’t want to be starved of the ball, so they drop deeper and deeper until Spurs become a team of midfielders, bunched together and unable to find space. If that was offset by solidity in defence, fine; it hasn’t been.
Keeping a manager who isn’t right for the club is to double down on the original mistake; Tottenham are right to be looking elsewhere. But the leaks of Sunday, that Paulo Fonseca and Sergio Conceicao are two names high up the shortlist, are deeply worrying. Both are clients of Jorge Mendes. Why are Tottenham again going down this path rather than working hard to attract Potter or Ten Hag?
It all just feels particularly stale. Other, richer clubs, can avoid these missteps because their financial might allows for rapid investment in players that can act as Polyfilla for the cracks. But Tottenham do not have that luxury. Their best player in a generation wanted to leave because he was unsure that the club’s ambitions matched his own. Even if Kane went about things the wrong way, this season is making a case in his defence. Tottenham are at risk of walking quickly into the wilderness.
Watford
Good luck to anyone trying to work out what Watford will be under Claudio Ranieri. In three matches they have been thrashed 5-0 while waving a white flag of defensive surrender throughout, scored four times in 16 minutes to come from behind to win at Everton to offer evidence that they will be deeply entertaining but flawed and then been beaten 1-0 at home by Southampton and only managed an xG of 1.2.
Perhaps that is enough; average a point per game from now until the end of the season and Watford will finish on 38, likely enough to stay up. But if Newcastle United get themselves out of trouble, it’s pretty hard to pick two obvious candidates to join Norwich back in the Championship without landing upon Watford’s name and emitting a weary sigh. So expect them to win at the Emirates next weekend.
West Ham
Given there have been far too many sections in this week’s column that discuss the likelihood of managers being sacked, let’s take a moment to praise David Moyes. I’m happy to concede that I thought re-hiring a man you’d sacked two years’ previously was an unimaginative mistake, and it’s great to see Moyes making me and so many others look foolish.
West Ham have a fairly simple system that relies upon hard work and communication. They have a strong spine. They make the most of set-piece opportunities. They see playing away from home as no different to playing at the London Stadium; do what they do well and the stage doesn’t matter. They have embraced Europa League football and have so far managed to avoid the travails of accumulated fatigue. But more than anything else, they are a team in which it looks like great fun to be a footballer. There’s a lot to be said for that.
Wolves
There was a particularly interesting interview this weekend with Bruno Lage on Sky Sports, in which he discussed all aspects of his tenure so far. With Wolves playing Monday evening, take time to read that piece and you understand just how obsessive managers have to be to start at sprinting speed and avoid the all-encompassing pressure that comes with being a Premier League manager.
Lage comes across as a genial guy, but his commitment to improving thing every single day, and ranking training performance to motivate players to improve, stand out. We are probably all guilty of placing so much focus on the minutiae on which matches are won and lost. Underneath it all is an extraordinary amount of hard work.
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