There goes another week plagued by the anxiety-inducing agony of waiting.
For the three clubs still in the relegation battle – Nottingham Forest, Luton Town and Burnley – the former’s ongoing appeal against a four-point deduction for breaching Profitability and Sustainability Rules (PSR) leaves them trapped within Premier League purgatory.
Just two points currently separate the three sides, with Burnley’s recent renaissance leaving them on 24 points, behind Luton on 25 and Forest outside the danger zone on 26.
But if Forest were to be awarded one or even two points back on appeal, it would have significant consequences with just three games remaining each.
How is Forest’s unresolved appeal affecting the relegation battle?
Imagine you’re running a race with a potential prize of £100m, but you’re not sure where the finish line is.
How hard do you push, and how early? How do you pace yourself? How do you find the motivation to keep on running when you believe you have nothing else left? What’s keeping you going when you don’t know what you’re aiming for?
This is the predicament Burnley, Luton and Forest are in until the appeal verdict is announced.
And even then, by the time they find out where the line is, it may already be too late. They may have already ran too hard, or not hard enough. There goes £100m.
As Vincent Kompany, Rob Edwards and Nuno Espirito Santo have all explained, this can have massive psychological impact on the players and staff.
Speaking on Thursday, Nuno said: “Unfortunately we haven’t heard yet. We are expecting, but not yet.
“It is very difficult. We have been dealing with this situation for a while.
“We all expected the decision to come sooner so we are aware and we know exactly how many points we have. Do we have 30, 29, 28, 27? We need it as fast as possible. These are the things the club is dealing with, not us.
“Thirty (points) would be fantastic because this is what the players have achieved on the pitch. I totally agree, it is a mess, they have had enough time.
“It’s a mess, it’s very difficult not only for us but for all the league, especially the clubs that are involved in points deduction. It’s very difficult to deal with this.”
And the pressure all this uncertainty places on Forest has been obvious, as shown by their spectacular outburst on X/Twitter after the 2-0 defeat to Everton.
Club management believed bringing in Mark Clattenburg as a refereeing analyst may help them in their survival quest, but the former official resigned on Friday.
Clattenburg said: “It is now clear that the existence and performance of these consultancy services has caused unintended friction between NFFC and other participants, to the extent that it has become more of a hindrance than help to NFFC.
“It has also led to the unmerited targeting of me, personally, by certain participants and pundits. Such reactions and outcomes were not expected and are regrettable, as it is my sincere belief that there is a place for and value in such a role in the modern game.”
Yet while none of this is ideal for Forest, it is ultimately a situation of their own making. However Luton and Burnley are victims without exception, both attempting to do what has appeared impossible at various points of this season.
This is just another barrier in their way, one which continues to stymy any hope they have of ensuring Premier League survival. They’re still running, but without knowing when this race will end, they’re slowly losing faith.
What could happen in Forest’s FFP points deduction appeal?
The most likely outcome here is that nothing changes.
Forest’s initial case was fought by Nick De Marco KC, the leading British sports lawyer, and he will have left no stone unturned in the initial case.
This means that unless the appeal commission views the information presented very differently, Forest are unlikely to receive any points back.
And unlike in Forest’s initial case, there is no hard deadline for the appeal commission to provide a verdict until the Premier League’s backstop date of 24 May.
So while Forest had hoped and expected to hear the result over the past week, they are still none the wiser whether they will find out next week.
This means it is entirely feasible their case goes into the final week of the season, although the most likely date for the verdict to be revealed now is Monday 6 May.
What do Forest, Luton and Burnley need to avoid relegation?
With just two points separating the three sides and only enough room on the floating door for one of them, anything could happen from here.
That is exacerbated by Burnley hosting Forest on the last day of the season. If nothing changes between now and then, this could end up as a winner-takes-all clash at Turf Moor.
Forest have perhaps the best opportunity to pick up points of the remaining team this weekend, when they visit already-relegated Sheffield United on Saturday.
They then host Chelsea on the penultimate weekend, before the all-important Burnley clash.
Between now and then, the Clarets host Newcastle and visit Tottenham, two theoretically tough games against volatile opposition.
But Burnley are in the best form of the relegation-threatened trio, having lost just one of their past eight matches. In that time, they’ve beaten Brentford and Sheffield United, while holding West Ham, Chelsea, Brighton and Manchester United to draws.
This has allowed them to reduce a once-eight point deficit to two, putting them in a very strong position to survive.
Meanwhile Luton face Everton on Friday evening – a team they have already beaten once this season – before visiting out-of-form West Ham and hosting on-the-beach Fulham.
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