Eddie Howe’s third full season at Newcastle United sees the club at a crossroads.
Seventh was a par finish given the problems but the pressure is on to improve and that means navigating the transfer window nimbly.
Here’s how they plan to do it.
What would success look like this summer?
Some Newcastle insiders believe this might be the most difficult transfer window since Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) took over as the club balance several competing priorities that have the potential to cause friction.
Everyone knows they need to get better but there is divergence on how. Howe has spoken about tweaking things but a radical overhaul becomes the direction of travel if Manchester City target Bruno Guimaraes departs (still rated by those with knowledge of the situation as looking “pretty unlikely” before his £100m release clause expires).
Yet there is a school of thought that they need to be bolder anyway, which is not something Howe has talked up publicly. When asked about some of those who could probably be sold for decent chunks of money to create room to spend – think Callum Wilson or Sean Longstaff – he has spoken effusively. But Newcastle need to get better in several areas to threaten the top four again, which is impossible without player trading in the era of profitability and sustainability rules (PSR).
Injuries were mitigation for failing to challenge last season but there are areas where they desperately need to upgrade. Club sources suggest a right winger, a right-sided centre-back, back-up striker and a goalkeeper to challenge Nick Pope are the bare minimum.
And we’re not talking making up the numbers here. “Simple: taking us up another level,” was what one source told i when asked about criteria for recruits.
At the moment the majority of the targets that have emerged have Premier League experience on their CV but the club have been scouting in France, Italy and Germany over the past 12 months. A potential “July surprise” – think Sandro Tonali’s move from AC Milan which blindsided many – is more likely than not.
But so much is still unknown at Newcastle, where even the identity of the next director of football is unclear. One source believes it will be a “complicated” summer at St James’ Park. “They want to get better but there’s an awful lot of moving parts,” they said.
Is anything imminent?
After missing out on Tosin Adarabioyo – the Fulham centre-back held advanced talks with Newcastle before Chelsea blew them out of the water on wages – the Magpies have turned their attention to wrapping up a deal for Bournemouth’s Lloyd Kelly.
That hasn’t been done yet – some final details still need to be ironed out – but Kelly’s enthusiasm for linking up with Howe is cause for optimism. He was on Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur’s radar so a move for the versatile defender would represent a solid start to the window.
Spanish reports claim Newcastle have lodged a formal offer for Valencia goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili – which has been played down in the north-east – but there have been talks. They also like Burnley’s James Trafford, who is a cheaper alternative.
But given the financial year ends on 30 June, and a new PSR calculation starts, it feels like things will really rev into gear next month.
Is there any help coming down the tracks, PSR-wise?
Newcastle’s power brokers will be watching developments in Manchester City’s legal case against the Premier League over associated party transaction (APT) regulations keenly.
That case – to be heard over a fortnight from 10 June and reported by The Times on Tuesday – could potentially rip up regulations surrounding commercial deals signed with companies linked to the club’s owners.
It is those rules which have helped limit Newcastle’s ability to turbocharge their revenue by signing deals with companies linked to PIF’s sprawling business empire. At the moment any commercial deal has to go through fair market value rules which have been tightened in the years since Newcastle’s takeover.
City’s case – if successful, and that is far from a given – would obliterate those and while Newcastle were staying tight-lipped on Tuesday, it is hard to imagine they won’t be cheering them on. Getting more freedom on Saudi-related commercial deals would be hugely controversial but also a potential game-changer for a club hemmed in by PSR.
Regardless of that potential big bang moment for the Premier League, there are deals in the works to follow Newcastle’s lucrative announcement of JD Sports as their new retail partners. i understands talks with a potential training kit sponsor – which they did not have last season – are ongoing.
In their efforts to improve the squad, every little matters.
New deals, anyone?
Initial talks over a new deal with Alexander Isak’s representatives are motivated by the club’s view of him as priceless this summer. Arsenal – his most interested suitors – have “no chance”, insiders insist. Newcastle sincerely believe he can become one of if not the best forward in the world and he is line to become one of the highest paid players in the club’s history if he recommits.
Below him there are a crop of players with contracts expiring in 2025: Wilson, Fabian Schar, Dan Burn, Kieran Trippier, Martin Dubravka, Emil Krafth and Jamaal Lascelles. Some are key men but if Newcastle are to move definitively to the next stage, others will surely leave in this most pivotal of summers.
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