Why Liverpool fans should fear ‘the Frankfurt curse’

Liverpool’s attempts to sign Alexander Isak were thwarted, but they wasted little time moving on to the next striker on their shortlist.

The Premier League champions have agreed to pay Eintracht Frankfurt £69m plus a further £10m in add-ons for Hugo Ekitike in a deal that will take their summer spending to almost £300m.

The 23-year-old has rebounded from a difficult spell with Paris Saint-Germain to become one of the most sought-after centre-forwards in Europe following a fruitful 18-month spell in Germany.

Ekitike scored 26 goals and provided 14 assists in 64 matches for Frankfurt in all competitions, and will become the focal point of Arne Slot’s attack in front of another Bundesliga recruit, Florian Wirtz.

How Ekitike and Isak compare

Isak, the Premier League’s leading goalscorer last season, was Liverpool’s marquee target, so how does Ekitike compare to the Swede?

Strikers are judged on goals more than anything else, and in that regard, Isak has the edge. He scored 23 and registered six assists in the Premier League, while Ekitike returned 15 goals and eight assists in the Bundesliga.

Those assist tallies prove there is more to their games than finishing. Isak created 11 big chances, defined as a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, while Ekitike managed 12.

“He’s very creative, has a good idea of what’s around him and is good at bringing others into play,” German football expert Kevin Hatchard tells The i Paper.

“He had a really nice partnership with [Manchester City’s Omar] Marmoush until he moved on, which I think is encouraging [for Liverpool].

“He is not somebody who is just focused on goals.”

Isak is a great outlet for Newcastle, capable of sparking a one-man counter-attack. He attempted more dribbles (91) than any other striker in the Premier League last season. The Bundesliga’s equivalent? Ekitike, with 116.

Physically, the pair are similar in stature too (the 6ft 4ins Isak is an inch taller), wiry in build and deceptively strong.

“In transition, he is great because he carries the ball so well,” Hatchard says.

“He has got a kind of loping stride and is pretty quick when he wants to be.

“One of the exciting things he can bring is little one-twos with Salah, Gakpo and Wirtz. You will see moments where he bursts away from a couple of players and slips someone in [on goal].”

As one of the foremost strikers in the world, there is no denying that Isak is the better player right now.

The main difference between them – and it is a big one – is the quality of their finishing.

Isak easily surpassed his xG (20.3) by nearly three goals. Ekitike significantly underperformed his (21.6) by over six goals.

Two penalty misses didn’t help the Frenchman’s record. Fortunately, Liverpool have Mo Salah for those.

“His shot selection could definitely improve, and he could be a bit calmer in front of goal sometimes,” Hatchard says.

“If you’re looking for him to get 20-25 Premier League goals, I think that may come at some stage but is unrealistic right now.”

Ekitike is not the finished product, but if Liverpool wanted an Isak-lite after missing out on the real thing, he ticks plenty of boxes.

Beware the Frankfurt curse?

Over the past six years, Frankfurt have developed a reputation for being one of Europe’s top finishing schools for gifted attackers.

Roughly every two years, Frankfurt sell a striker for significantly more money than they paid for them.

The strategy has been bad for fans who have their favourite players’ names on the back of their shirts, but very good for the club’s bank balance.

The production line whirred into gear in 2019 after they reached the semi-final of the Europa League, with their frontline of Luka Jovic, Sebastien Haller and Ante Rebic sold for well over £100m. It has maintained speed ever since.

Strikers sold by Frankfurt since 2019

2019

  • Luka Jovic to Real Madrid for £52.4m
  • Sebastien Haller to West Ham for £45m
  • Ante Rebic to AC Milan for £21.7m

2021

  • Andre Silva to RB Leipzig for £19.9m

2023

  • Randal Kolo Muani to Paris Saint-Germain for £76.4m

2025

  • Omar Marmoush to Manchester City for £59m
  • Hugo Ekitike to Liverpool for £79m

Frankfurt may be an ideal stepping stone for talented young forwards, but the grass hasn’t tended to be greener.

Jovic, Haller, Andre Silva and Kolo Randal Muani earned Frankfurt over £190m in combined transfer fees, but managed just 55 goals between them in 269 games at their next clubs, before moving elsewhere, permanently or on loan.

“I don’t think it is Frankfurt ripping people off,” Hatchard insists.

“Markus Krosche [Frankfurt’s sporting director] is one of the best in the business and is a very good negotiator.

Circumstances have often worked against them.

“Jovic went to Madrid for big money and big expectations and couldn’t deal with it,” Hatchard says.

“West Ham didn’t play to Haller’s strengths and had no idea how to get the best out of him.

“Kolo Muani ended up at a club where he wasn’t the focal point and a coach with very specific requirements who didn’t fancy him.”

That doesn’t mean to say that Ektike will struggle on Merseyside.

As interest in Isak and Ekitike shows, Slot wanted a certain profile for his No 9.

There is a plan there, which wasn’t the case for some of the others.

“I don’t think Liverpool should look at the other strikers and think ‘we’re being sold a pup here’, it’s more nuanced than that,” Hatchard says.

“Marmoush has settled in well at City and is scoring goals.

“I think Ekitike, in terms of potential and skillset, is right up there with all of them, if not better.”



from Football - The i Paper https://ift.tt/QHeINDU

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