When Thomas Tuchel named his bumper England squad in March, the most questionable striker omission was Danny Welbeck.
Ollie Watkins could have few complaints. Out of form for Aston Villa – without a league goal in six games – call-ups instead for Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Dominic Solanke were justifiable, even if Welbeck’s own omission was unfortunate.
To borrow Michael Jordan’s The Last Dance catchphrase, Watkins took that personally, bottling the disappointment and responding where it matters most: in front of goal.
Now, a purple patch. Since that squad was announced on 20 March, Watkins has scored 10 goals in 11 games across all competitions, more than Calvert-Lewin, Solanke and Welbeck combined (eight) in that same period.
So when Tuchel names his World Cup squad on Friday, Watkins should expect to see his name. It is no longer a debate, but a no-brainer.
And it is not merely because of how Watkins has reacted in the last couple of months that makes him the ideal back-up to Harry Kane in North America, but also previous tournament experience.
If this really is a close call then Watkins edges it for his role at Euro 2024, where he delivered one of England’s moments of the tournament when scoring the winner in the semi-final against the Netherlands.
With previous few minutes as Kane’s deputy – 58 minutes in all at Euro 2024 – Watkins seized his chance to the point where some called for him to start the final. Kane was out of sorts, clearly injured, but Gareth Southgate stood by his captain, and Watkins could not have the same impact off the bench in the 2-1 defeat to Spain.
Fast forward two years and England’s prospects without Kane are scarcely worth thinking about, such has been the forward’s form for Bayern Munich this season – 58 goals, 50 games.
That also means a lot of minutes, 3,960 in total, meaning Kane will have to be carefully managed at the World Cup, particularly now there is an extra knockout game – the round of 32 – in this tournament’s new 48-team guise.
Tuchel therefore needs not only an able back-up to Kane, but someone he can rely on to start, especially if England beat Croatia and Ghana in their first two Group L (yes, there’s a Group L) games.
Watkins fits the bill for that final Group L game against Panama. His hold-up play rarely dips even if his finishing can fluctuate, while his understanding with Morgan Rogers at club level could also pay dividends on the international stage.
It could be the ideal chance to rest Kane, and give Watkins more minutes than he managed in the earlier stages of the Euros.
Add to that the March friendlies where both Solanke and Calvert-Lewin failed to make the most of their chances.
Tuchel had addressed dropping Watkins at the time, admitting he knew the qualities the Villa striker could bring, whereas the two Dominics were greater unknowns to the German.
Against Uruguay and Japan though neither shone and while they were not alone in struggling, Watkins’ stock rose by his very absence from a double-header that cooled World Cup expectations.
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In the weeks since, Watkins has been integral in Villa’s run to the Europa League final, scoring three goals across both legs of the Bologna quarter-final, then scoring and assisting in the 4-0 semi-final second leg win over Nottingham Forest.
He was as close to unplayable that night against Forest as he has been all season, playing with a point to prove and silverware to chase, while in the league a return to form included two goals and an assist in the Champions League-sealing 4-2 win over Liverpool last Friday.
The timing has been perfect, and a star turn in Wednesday’s final would only further rubber stamp Watkins’ place at the World Cup.
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