The four things Leeds have to do to stay in the Premier League

A year late, and all the better for it, Leeds United returned to the Premier League with a nerveless procession which descended into a Yorkshire bacchanal.

Leeds manager Daniel Farke insisted the short-term priority was “beer after beer, champagne after champagne”, but it is impossible not to consider the reality of returning to the top flight.

Assuming there is no miracle in Ipswich, each of the last six promoted teams have been instantly relegated, with a significant gulf between the established clubs and pretenders. The mountain is beginning to feel insurmountable.

But here is how Leeds can turn promotion into long-term survival.

Replace Illan Meslier – and Joel Piroe

Ask anyone at Leeds what their clearest weakness is, and they will point straight to an unfortunate Frenchman. Farke kept faith in Illan Meslier – who has 21 league clean sheets this season – for far longer than any fan, but he eventually lost his place to Karl Darlow.

Meslier is a man of extremes – a prodigious talent once compared to Thibaut Courtois who let in more saveable goals than any other goalkeeper in the 2021-22 Premier League.

This season he made errors which cost Leeds points against Portsmouth, Sunderland, Hull City and Preston North End. His confidence is as low as the wider faith in him. Replacing him with an experienced top-flight goalkeeper – perhaps someone like Sam Johnstone – is crucial.

But there is arguably just as much of a need to upgrade Joel Piroe, even after his four goals against Stoke City. One of the more obvious threads between promoted sides who have survived their first season is a striker capable of scoring 10 Premier League goals or more, and the evidence just isn’t there that Piroe could manage that.

This is the third season the Dutchman has scored 19 Championship goals or more, having also scored 19 for Swansea City in 2022-23 and 22 the season prior. Yet when you consider Aleksandar Mitrovic only managed 14 in the 2022-23 Premier League having scored 43 in the Championship, or Ivan Toney 10 for Brentford in 2021-22 having scored 33 in the second tier, you have to question how that would translate.

Bringing in a striker of unquestionable Premier League quality would provide Leeds with a key asset for survival. Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin could be available on a free, while West Ham’s Danny Ings is another possible option.

Aim for stability over revolution

Promoted sides have recently tended towards scattergun recruitment, spreading outlays of £100m to £130m on upgrades in every position. Southampton permanently signed 15 senior players last summer, Ipswich 10 (plus two loanees), and then added Alex Palmer and Jaden Philogene in January, as well as loaning Julio Enciso and Ben Godfrey.

Leicester were restricted by financial concerns, but Steve Cooper and Ruud van Nistelrooy were both outspoken about their desire for more signings.

This has largely been inspired by Nottingham Forest’s gamble in 2022-23, when buying 24 first-teamers and loaning five more ensured survival. Yet the difference here is Leeds are far better prepared for promotion. What they need are targeted, big-money upgrades in key positions to raise their ceiling more than their floor.

If 49ers Enterprises do decide to significantly invest – and they would be deluded not to think they need to spend to the limit given the quality of existing Premier League teams – then buying four or five players for £20-£40m would be the smartest way of doing so. Aiming for as little disruption as possible to this unified and well-balanced group is key.

Keep trusting defence

If Burnley were not on course to produce the best defensive season ever, there would be far more discussion of how good Leeds have been at the back.

After 44 matches, they have conceded 29 goals. Clean sheets in their final two matches would mean only Burnley have a better defensive record than them in any Championship season.

In fact, their expected goals conceded is actually significantly better than Burnley’s – 28.7 to 36. Leeds have only made 11 errors leading to a shot all season – the second-best in the Championship – and their goals against figure would be in a stronger position had Meslier been dropped or replaced earlier.

Their backline of Jayden Bogle, Joe Rodon, Pascal Struijk and Junior Firpo, with captain Ethan Ampadu also an option at centre-back or defensive midfield, is remarkably strong and organised. Every player already has top-flight experience and clearly works well together.

Firpo is out of contract this summer, with the decision on his future still unclear. Either extending his deal or finding an upgrade is another key priority.

Farke has attracted some criticism for boring, overly pragmatic football, but the travails of other promoted clubs have proven there is value in this. Sticking to their defensive guns will go a long way in the Premier League.

Don’t feel doomed

There is a growing temptation to suggest Premier League survival as a promoted club is impossible, that the game is now rigged against them. The drawbridge has been pulled up and only a miracle, or hard alterations to financial regulations or parachute payments, will lower it again.

The experiences of recent Championship returnees will be incredibly difficult to ignore, especially if Leeds get off to a bad start in the top flight. Finding a way to overcome the idea staying up is an impossibility might be Farke’s greatest challenge.

Yet Leeds are almost certainly the best prepared of any promoted team since 2022-23 to stay up. According to the most recent accounts, their squad cost would have been the 14th-highest in the Premier League, and there is further room to spend, aided by their strong commercial figures and sponsorship income from Red Bull.

On top of this, their current goal difference (60) is the second-highest in the Championship this century, only behind Reading in 2005-06. Having an extra season to rebuild and bond allowed an unparalleled team unit to develop. This is, by a lot of metrics, one of the best second-tier teams ever. There is plenty to be hopeful about. It is keeping that hope that will be the problem.



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