Liverpool’s Champions league draw: the best and worst groups the Reds could face

More than two months after the meandering qualifying competition kicked off in June in tiny Kosovo, the draw for the Champions League group stage will be made on Friday.

By the end of Wednesday night there will have been 91 games played in this year’s competition, all for the sake of filling the six group-stage places not already swallowed up Europe’s top leagues, and Uefa’s coefficient calculations have given us a reliable outline of what could and couldn’t happen when the draw is made in Monaco.

Jurgen Klopp leads Liverpool into the tournament as European champions for the first time since 2005, and there are a plethora of possibilities that will determine whether his team sail gently into the knock-out rounds or are made to fight tooth and nail against a fellow European heavyweight.

As title holders, the Reds enjoy the advantage of being parachuted straight into pot number one alongside Europa League winners Chelsea and the league champions of the six top-ranked Uefa leagues, meaning they cannot be drawn against the Blues or Premier League nemeses Manchester City. Paris Saint-Germain, who beat Klopp’s team in the French capital during last year’s groups, are also not in the equation, so too Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Juventus and Russian champions Zenit Saint Petersburg.

Teams Liverpool will definitely avoid

Manchester City

Chelsea

PSG

Barcelona

Bayern Munich

Juventus

Zenit St Petersburg

The nightmare scenario for Klopp would see his team dropped in it against Real Madrid, who clung to the trophy for three seasons between 2016-18 and beat Liverpool in the Kiev final last year. They wait open-jawed like a shark in pot two, ready to drive a spanner into the plans of any of the top sides who might be hoping for an easy ride this side of Christmas. Cross-city rivals Atletico would also be an unwanted pairing for the champions, as would Borussia Dortmund and last season’s group stage opponents Napoli. Shakhtar Donetsk would mean an annoying eight-hour round trip to Ukraine but an otherwise gentle opponent.

Inter Milan are the outlier in pot three. Having been absent from the Champions League for six seasons their club coefficient has taken a knock, and last year’s early exit at the hands of Tottenham did nothing to improve it. Antonio Conte’s side sneeked into Serie A’s top four by the skin of their teeth from the old enemy AC Milan, and will be desperate to avoid another ignominious early exit.

The other horror scenario would be last season’s semi-final sensation Ajax, but only if the Dutch champions make it past Apoel Nicosia in Amsterdam on Wednesday night. The two sides drew 0-0 in Cyprus last week and there is no certainty that Erik ten Hag’s team will even be in Friday’s draw. If they do make it, then even without the departed Frenkie de Jong and Matthijs de Ligt it would be cruel fortune to be paired with them so early in the competition.

Worst possible draw

Liverpool

Real Madrid

Ajax

RB Leipzig

The Reds would be happy with any of the other sides that might emerge from the play-offs – with the possible exception of Serbia’s Red Star who had them well beaten last season in Belgrade – and the really tricky challenges from the final pot would likely come in form of RB Leipzig, who are improving all the time and becoming acclimatised at this level, and Atalanta, whose new-boys enthusiasm and unknown-quantity factor could make them troublesome on their Champions League debut.

Other possible hardships from the bottom end of the draw could be little more than a question of logistics. Depending on the outcome of Wednesday’s play-offs, the Reds could cop for both Lokomotiv Moscow and Galatasaray meaning a couple of lengthy midweek hauls, though neither should pose much of a threat to the champions’ qualification chances. More likely is that it would lead to some heavy-legged Premier League outings and furrowed brows on Merseyside over a tired squad.