The magic 40-point mark? That won’t be necessary this season. The bottom five Premier League clubs are yet to win since the restart, and the stats suggest a far lower points total will help secure survival.
Speak to any Norwich, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, West Ham or Watford fan right now and their outlook will be one of resignation amid the threat of relegation.
For Norwich, six points adrift at the bottom, it is admittedly looking bleak, while the remaining four sides are separated by just one point, with Watford a hair’s breadth ahead of West Ham, Bournemouth and Villa.
Two of these sides will somehow stay up, meaning a season’s worth of struggling will almost feel worth it, and there is an action-packed month left of matches to decide who will fall either side of this dreaded dotted line.
The magic number: 36.58
The notion that 40 points will keep you up has become part of Premier League scripture. Claudio Ranieri said this total was still his aim as Leicester topped the table in November of their title-winning campaign in 2015-16, while manager after manager has stressed the serious importance of reaching this goal.
It is a marker which all-but guarantees safety. Only two clubs have gone down on 40 points since the Premier League switched to 20 teams in 1995; Sunderland in 1996-97 and Bolton a season later. Meanwhile, West Ham are the only club to have surpassed this total and been relegated – their 42 points not enough to keep them up in 2002-03.
On average, based on the past 24 seasons, the number of points required to guarantee safety is 36.58.
Round this up to 37 and you have enough points to escape relegation in seven of the past eight seasons, while Newcastle went down with exactly this total in 2015-16.
This time around, 37 points will almost certainly secure safety. After 31 matches both 17th-placed West Ham and 18th-placed Bournemouth are on 27 points, meaning at this current rate of points-per-game they will have 33 points after 38 matches.
Naturally the relegation scrap will not follow such maths, it will produce some surprise results and defy statistics, but there is every chance two wins for any struggling side from this point on could be enough to stay up.
The toughest run-in on paper
Supporters of these five relegation-battling sides can probably recite their own remaining fixtures off by heart. A glance at the schedule either offers hope, a week where six points could be picked up, or doubles down on despair with meetings against big teams looming.
On paper, Bournemouth fans have a right to feel worried. The Cherries face the toughest run-in based on average position of their opponents, with Eddie Howe’s side facing Manchester United, Tottenham, Leicester and then Manchester City after they take on Newcastle on Wednesday.
Toughest run-in: Average league position of opponent
- 8.14 – Bournemouth (Newcastle H, Man Utd A, Tottenham H, Leicester H, Man City A, Southampton H, Everton A)
- 9.17 – Aston Villa (Liverpool A, Man Utd H, Crystal Palace H, Everton A, Arsenal H, West Ham A)
- 10.57 – Norwich (Arsenal A, Brighton H, Watford A, West Ham H, Chelsea A, Burnley H, Man City A)
- 11 – Watford (Chelsea A, Norwich H, Newcastle H, West Ham A, Man City H, Arsenal A)
- 12.86 – West Ham (Chelsea H, Newcastle A, Burnley H, Norwich A, Watford H, Man Utd A, Aston Villa H)
Villa’s remaining fixtures are almost as tough, with their next two matches being Liverpool away on 5 July followed by Manchester United at home on 9 July.
West Ham have the easiest run-in based on average position, and after Chelsea on Wednesday the Hammers will believe their fate is still in their own hands.
Crucial head to heads come in the form of Norwich vs West Ham on 11 July and West Ham vs Watford on 15 July, before a potential final-day showdown at the London Stadium on 26 July.
West Ham welcome Villa to the capital, a match David Cameron will have a keen eye on, and it is a match-up which could leave one club feeling claret and blue.
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