Come 6pm on Sunday there will be a cacophony of cursing and cheering up and down the country, with some supporters drowning their sorrows as others thank deities they never believed in.
While three sides vie for two Champions League places, at the opposite end of the Premier League table three teams are dreaming of a 17th-placed finish that will consign the other two to relegation – a fate described by Aston Villa chief executive Christian Purslow as a £200m “catastrophe”.
Once the table is finalised and the lines are finally drawn, we will know who out of Villa, Watford and Bournemouth will be down, and the scrutiny will begin as to how exactly one side escaped the drop.
Two sets of supporters will be ruing missed opportunities, leads thrown away, the times where one point should have been three, zero could have been one, while the other group will be remembering fondly that vital draw or win which helped them on their way to survival.
Either way, VAR will feature in this retrospection, with the various cast members at Stockley Park simultaneously playing the role of protagonist and villain during key moments of the technology’s first season in the top flight.
Perhaps no event will stick out greater than a freak, unique occurrence at Villa Park on 17 June – in the very first match of the Premier League’s return after the three-month hiatus caused by Covid-19.
The image of Villa goalkeeper Orjan Nyland leaning the ball against the back of the post, moments after carrying it over the line, is imprinted in the memory of those who watched the incident unfold.
Instead of going into the break 1-0 down against Sheffield United, Villa headed in goalless and eventually held out for a point. VAR did not intervene due to the unprecedented circumstances, with Hawk-Eye “unreservedly” apologising and explaining all seven cameras were obstructed, thus producing their first goal-line technology error in more than 9,000 matches.
Blades boss Chris Wilder joked Nyland was so far back he carried the ball into the Holte End. Villa boss Dean Smith added: “We just have to accept it and move on, there’s nothing else we can do.”
Easy for Smith to say, and after what Wilder described as “the biggest VAR decision in the history of the Premier League”, fast forward one almighty action-packed month and you will find Villa are 17th going into the final day, not even a point above Watford but out of the bottom three by virtue of goal difference: minus 26 to minus 27.
Villa’s own run of seven points from three games, coupled with two-game losing streaks for both Bournemouth and Watford, is a reason why Smith’s side are in pole position to stay up.
But the manner of that most fortunate of points last month means it would be a very difficult pill to swallow for Bournemouth and Watford should results conspire against them.
“I’ll be incredibly frustrated if that’s the difference between us staying in the Premier League and not, but I’m not going to pretend that’s the reason we could be relegated,” Jacob Culshaw, founder of Watford fan channel WD18, tells i.
“The reason would be that we didn’t have enough points on the board. The situation was in our own hands. Of course people will take a look and say that was the moment, but it’s such fine margins. There are 38 games in the season, we’ve had enough opportunities to get points.”
Looking beyond the controversial decision to sack Nigel Pearson, Watford have been on the receiving end of some contentious calls this season, including a handball VAR admitted it missed when Newcastle equalised in September’s 1-1 draw, with a similar incident occurring when Southampton beat the Hornets 2-1 two months later.
“It would be unfair to say VAR relegated Watford,” Jacob adds. “That’s not to say there haven’t been decisions that have gone against us. This is a bigger thing than VAR, and when you blame it on those factors you’re not taking control of the situation.”
Should Villa win at West Ham on Sunday and Watford do likewise at Arsenal, Watford will have to win by a margin of two more goals to stay up. Should Villa and Watford draw, Villa will retain their Premier League status on goal difference.
Bournemouth’s mission is clear, they must win at Everton and hope Villa and Watford both lose. On the verge of making it five seasons and out of the Premier League, the Cherries could well look back in anger at a few decisions that did not go their way as well.
“HUGE VAR CALLS GO AGAINST US” begins the title of Bournemouth’s own YouTube highlights for the 3-0 defeat at Burnley. Similarly, “TWO BIG VAR DECISIONS” for the 2-2 draw with West Ham. Then there is VAR ruling a marginal offside for Josh King during the 2-1 defeat to Manchester City earlier this month.
“It has been a lot of ‘if onlys’,” Bournemouth fan Alex Deutsch tells i. “We’re in the position we are because we haven’t played well enough and deserve to be where we are, but the introduction of VAR means the margins a club like ours sometimes has to rely on to get us out of situations is no longer there. These moments have really impacted us.
“When you’re in the stadium, hugging three friends falling down some stairs, only to find out someone’s toe was a millimetre offside, it’s really painful. The Burnley incidents too, it’s sickening.”
And then, of course, the Villa incident. “Every club will pinpoint a moment where VAR hasn’t helped them,” Mark adds, “but there isn’t another club who can pinpoint a moment where a technical glitch has not registered a perfectly valid goal. That stings a bit. Yes it’s a mistake, but it’s a bit of a shocker.”
But while the maths still says it is possible, there is still hope.
“We’ve been written off in the Championship, and then the Premier League every single season,” says Mark. “It’s difficult to expect anything really, you read there’s a 95 per cent chance of us going down, but that five per cent is what the history of this club has been built on.”
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