Fantasy Premier League can be an unforgiving place at the best of times but the gameweek that has just been and gone was particularly gruesome for most managers (unless you had Leicester’s hat-trick hero Jamie Vardy, of course).
The average score across the seven million or so players in Gameweek 3 was just 43, a 16 point drop from the previous weekend when a record 44 Premier League goals were scored.
Even in a league which is frequently championed for its unpredictability and competitiveness, some of this weekend’s matches in the Premier League had to be seen to be believed.
After receiving a pummelling from Brighton, Manchester United inexplicably won the game with a penalty scored after full-time; Chelsea went 3-0 down to a West Brom side that looks destined for the drop before salvaging a 3-3 draw; Manchester City, Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City at that, lost 5-2 at home to Leicester City; previously winless West Ham whose manager David Moyes was at home self-isolating, thrashed Wolves 4-0. Bonkers.
In the opening weeks of the campaign, it is clear that some teams are struggling with the congested fixture list which was preceded by a shortened, imperfect pre-season, more than others. A surge in the number of penalties being awarded, largely due to the introduction of a controversial new interpretation of the handball rule, has only added to the chaos.
It is unsurprising, given what has gone on already this season, that many FPL managers are hitting the Wildcard panic button.
For newcomers to the game, a Wildcard allows a manager to make unlimited transfers to their team without having to sacrifice any points to do so, the catch being it can only be played twice in a season: once in the first half of the season – or up until GW16 this year – and once in the second half – GW17-GW38.
There is no exact science when it comes to playing the Wildcard. Ultimately, it is up to each individual manager to decide when to pull the trigger for the benefit of their team.
However, playing it this early is undoubtedly a risk with teams still getting up to speed after a truncated pre-season and some clubs looking to complete major transfers before the deadline shuts on Monday 5 October while Gameweek 4 is still going on.
It is extremely tempting to use the Wildcard immediately after a disastrous gameweek without considering the bigger picture. The players you bought in Gameweek 1 haven’t necessarily turned into bad players overnight, while those you’re looking to bring in after one good performance may not be able to sustain that form.
Son Heung-min is the perfect example of how FPL managers can be punished for making rash decisions. After returning two points in Tottenham’s 1-0 defeat to Everton in Gameweek 1, Son was the most-sold player in the game ahead of Gameweek 2, even dropping from £9.0m to £8.9m in price.
Against Southampton in Gameweek 2, he scored a career-best four goals and amassed 24 points in total as Spurs won 5-2. Suddenly, those who sold Son were scrambling to get him back in for Gameweek 3 against Newcastle and despite hitting the post and bar in the first half, he went off injured at half-time, registering just one point.
Although taking an aggressive approach to transfers can pay immediate dividends in FPL, sometimes a more patient approach will yield longer-term benefits.
Gameweek 4 is also the final one before the latest round of international fixtures meaning there will be a two-week hiatus from Premier League football and by extension, FPL. Hitting the Wildcard button before an international break is always a risky strategy given players could return to their clubs with niggling injuries.
It is even riskier at this juncture of the season given the additional variable of the transfer window which could see major players move from one Premier League club to another or big stars being brought in from elsewhere to take their places.
Conversely, playing the Wildcard after international fixtures have been played and the transfer window has shut, looks a far more viable strategy.
By Gameweek 5, which takes place from Saturday 17 October, teams should theoretically be more settled than they are now. There will also be more data available to inform your transfer decisions and, who knows, highly-fancied yet underperforming teams like Manchester City and Manchester United might have found their groove by then.
Deconstructing your team after a ludicrous gameweek like the one that has just happened may seem like an obvious solution now but, in hindsight, it could prove to be a poor decision.
This season more than ever, it may be beneficial to hang onto your Wildcard a little while longer.
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- How the ‘Wildcard’ works – and when best to use it
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