Arsenal‘s Premier League record after 12 games is strikingly similar to the same stage last season but this is a different team to the one that emerged so thrillingly as Manchester City‘s main title rival.
The Gunners are three points worse off but only one behind Pep Guardiola’s leaders, while their goal difference of +16 is exactly the same. The subtle differences in the goals for and goals against columns hint at what Mikel Arteta has changed.
Arsenal’s tally of 26 goals is three fewer than they managed this time last year, while their record of 10 goals conceded, the joint-best in the division with Liverpool, is three better. But here is the important bit: Arsenal let in 16 goals in their final eight games in 2022-23 and Arteta has made them more compact and less exciting as a result.
They are firmly in the title picture again but time will tell whether Arteta’s tactical tweaks succeed in his side going one step further. With the margins so tight, Arsenal will be on the lookout for January recruits to tip the scales in their favour.
Where do they need to strengthen?
The David Raya vs Aaron Ramsdale debate is being gradually phased out and replaced by a fresh topic: do Arsenal need a new striker?
Arteta loves Gabriel Jesus but the Brazilian is not clinical enough to be considered truly world-class; Eddie Nketiah is an able deputy but has a tendency to drift in and out of games; Kai Havertz has scored once (from the penalty spot) in 20 games for the club and was used as a left-back by Germany recently; and Leandro Trossard only seems to be trusted against lesser opponents.
Perhaps the biggest issue is Jesus’ injury record. Since joining Arsenal, the 26-year-old has missed almost 40 per cent of their competitive matches. It is difficult to build an attack around a centre-forward who doesn’t play enough.
The consensus among the fanbase seems to be that a goalscoring No 9 is the priority, but a central midfielder may feature more prominently on the club’s wishlist.
That might seem odd given the club just splurged a club-record £105m on Declan Rice and £65m on Havertz but Arteta has encountered issues in that area. The languid Havertz was an unusual choice to replace the combative Granit Xhaka and has struggled to settle, Thomas Partey has been limited to five games due to injury and Jorginho turns 32 next month.
It seems certain that Arsenal will buy a midfielder in January or next summer, either a defensive No 6 or a box-to-box specialist to allow Rice to drop back.
How much money is available?
It was an expensive summer with Rice, Havertz and Jurrien Timber costing a combined £208m. Arsenal recouped around £80m mainly through the sales of Folarin Balogun to Monaco and Xhaka to Bayer Leverkusen.
The loan-to-buy nature of Raya’s move from Brentford indicates that Arsenal are operating within Financial Fair Play constraints. The Gunners paid £3m to take him on loan until the end of this season but are expected to activate the option to buy him outright for £27m next summer, which would be factored into next year’s financial accounts.
Similarly flexible agreements might have to be made if Arsenal are to make any expensive signings, unless they are able to raise significant funds through player sales.
Who are they being linked with?
Ivan Toney has been linked with Arsenal for some time and would be a Premier League-ready recruit, albeit one lacking match fitness due to his gambling ban.
The 27-year-old would not come cheap with Brentford reportedly valuing him at at least £80m. In October, i reported that the Bees have no intention of cashing in on their most valuable asset in January and that stance is unlikely to have changed.
Arsenal are also long-term admirers of the Juventus striker Dusan Vlahovic and were strongly linked with a move for him before he left Fiorentina for Juve in January 2022.
The 23-year-old’s stock has dipped during his time in Turin with 27 goals in 73 games a modest return for a player who cost £70m.
Numerous midfielders have been mentioned as likely targets, including a trio of Brazilians. Aston Villa’s surge under Unai Emery has been supercharged by Douglas Luiz who is becoming just as adept in a box-to-box role as he is as an anchor.
Luiz has added goals to his game, scoring 10 Premier League goals (including three penalties) since Emery’s appointment in November 2022.
Other targets include Brazil-based Andre and Gabriel Moscardo. Andre, 22, is expected to leave Fluminense after playing a pivotal role in their historic Copa Libertadores win at the start of November and is valued at around £30m. Tottenham, Liverpool and Fulham are also reportedly interested.
Moscardo, who plays for Corinthians, is only 18 and therefore, more one for the future. Chelsea and Barcelona are among those tracking him.
Finally, Ruben Neves could be a wildcard option wuth his Al-Hilal future already uncertain. The former Wolves captain has admirers at Newcastle who are allowed to sign him despite his club also being owned by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund.
Which players could leave?
With injuries mounting up, major outgoings seem unlikely.
Sky Germany have reported that Bayern Munich pushed to sign Takehiro Tomiyasu in the summer and will return with a fresh approach in January. However, a sale is unlikely given Tomiyasu has re-established himself in Arteta’s starting line-up in recent weeks.
Arsenal have sent a number of players to Marseille in recent years including William Saliba, Matteo Guendouzi and Nuno Tavares, and there have been rumours that Fabio Vieira could become the latest player to follow suit on loan.
Vieira has only started five Premier League games since signing from Porto for £35m in 2022.
Cedric Soares has made one substitute appearance in all competitions this season and is free to leave.
i‘s ideal signing
Ivan Toney. Goals haven’t been a major problem for Arsenal: they have averaged 2.1 per game in the Premier League and have a greater variety of goalscorers (with 13) than any other club in the division.
So long as the goals continue to be spread out, inconsistent returns from their strikers may not matter, but it is interesting that Nketiah, Arsenal’s leading scorer with five, has fewer than the leading marksman at 10 other clubs.
Toney’s goalscoring prowess is not in doubt. He was one of three players to register 20 or more Premier League goals in 22-23, along with Erling Haaland and Harry Kane. He is extremely durable too, averaging over 40 games per season since his first full campaign with Northampton Town in 2014-15.
Andre is perhaps a more realistic January target, although he is extremely coveted. He made more tackles than any other player during the 2023 Copa Libertadores and that doggedness would be a welcome addition to Arsenal’s engine room.
Possible starting XI in January
Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Tomiyasu; Andre, Odegaard, Rice; Saka, Martinelli, Toney
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