After picking up four points from games against Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City and scoring eight goals in the process, there is finally a sense the Mauricio Pochettino project is on the right track at Chelsea.
The Blues have spent over £1bn in the past three transfer windows, effectively building two entire first teams in the process.
This January window may well be the first to arrive with the club already on an upward trajectory and the squad not in need of any immediate surgery.
So what are Chelsea and their seemingly endless mountains of American gold looking to do in the upcoming window?
Where do they need to strengthen?
This largely depends on Christopher Nkunku’s and Romeo Lavia’s respective returns to fitness. Nkunku is yet to play a competitive minute for Chelsea after picking up a knee injury in pre-season, although could return as soon as this weekend’s visit to Newcastle United.
The club will be monitoring how the Frenchman takes to Premier League football and whether he appears capable of performing consistently as a lone striker within Pochettino’s system.
There were certainly positive signs as he scored three times in Chelsea’s tour of the United States, but whether that translates to the English top flight remains to be seen.
Pochettino has been repeatedly effusive in his praise for fellow striker Nicolas Jackson, who has scored seven goals in 14 appearances, but the 22-year-old has been inconsistent and also is likely to miss a month of football to play for Senegal in the upcoming Afcon.
The lack of an elite No 9 is still viewed as an issue by many around the club, especially as they aim to rejoin the Champions League sooner rather than later. Yet if Jackson’s development continues and Nkunku settles into first-team life quickly, that need will wane, with talk already somewhat quietening after scoring four goals in the last two games.
Meanwhile £53m summer signing Lavia is finally training and could also make the squad for Chelsea’s Newcastle trip. With Pochettino playing a three-man midfield, there have been suggestions they lack cover for Enzo Fernandez, Moises Caicedo and Conor Gallagher. But Lavia’s return, alongside that of Carney Chukwuemeka and the development of Lesley Ugochukwu, should temporarily quash these calls.
Pochettino has explained previously Chelsea’s transfer strategy is dynamic and ever-changing, but has also emphasised that he hopes to have a first-team squad no bigger than “22, 23, 24” players, with “some younger”. That number is still 30, despite injuries meaning no more than 25 have been fit simultaneously all season.
So perhaps the best thing Chelsea can do in January is work with the players they have, developing on-pitch cohesion and allowing Pochettino to implement his footballing vision. There are no desperate areas of need. Nkunku and Lavia’s returns, alongside the eventual return of Wesley Fofana early next year, should act as effective new signings to bolster the only slight weaknesses in an otherwise well-rounded squad.
How much money is available?
Under Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital, money is not an issue, but financial fair play (FFP) regulations are. In theory, the pot of gold is almost endless, but the ownership are wary not to be unnecessarily profligate, as they perhaps were early on. Selling clubs now know what Chelsea are willing to do in pursuit of high-priority targets, and the Blues are conscious not to be taken advantage of because of that.
Having spent more in the past three transfer windows than any club in history, FFP is now Chelsea’s greatest concern, especially after Everton were fined nine points for their breach.
Who are they being linked with?
There are two clear categories of player here – elite strikers and wonderkids.
The first is more interesting, but i understands Chelsea’s move for a top No 9 is increasingly unlikely to happen in January, due to the lack of available options and wanting to assess Nkunku.
The two names the club are most clearly considering for this role are Victor Osimhen and Ivan Toney. Osimhen is unsettled at Napoli and open to a Chelsea move, but the Italian club have no interest in a January sale and their current fee is close to £150m, although this will lower by next summer.
Chelsea are certainly interested in the 24-year-old, but the fee and the timing may well be wrong. Unless a rival were to trigger a January bidding war, or Nkunku or Jackson were to pick up a fresh injury, this move seems unlikely.
The same goes for Ivan Toney, but his £80m price tag at 27 is high, especially given Chelsea’s summer transfer policy of only signing players under 25. Past that, Toney hasn’t played competitive football since last May, and a summer move may suit all parties better. As with Osimhen, only a rival attempting to steal a march – likely Arsenal – or injury elsewhere could change that stance.
Another name often mooted is Brighton’s Evan Ferguson, who the Seagulls have said will likely be worth at least Caicedo’s £115m. Yet there is almost no chance of Ferguson leaving the south coast in January, and any move for the 19-year-old would come next summer or beyond.
As for wonderkids, Chelsea’s expansive scouting network means they are monitoring most top young talents. If the Blues are going to spend in January, it is more likely to go on prospects with views to loaning them out, rather than finished products. This is the club’s new transfer strategy, with youngsters brought in to play for the first team if they fit and be sold on for profit if they don’t.
Club Brugge winger Antonio Nusa appears to be top of Chelsea’s list in this regard, after failing with a deadline day bid for the Norwegian over the summer. They are also prepared to bid for Corinthians midfielder Gabriel Moscardo, another player they tried to sign a few months ago, although expect competition from Barcelona. As the Brazilian club season is soon drawing to a close, a deal for Moscardo will likely take place in January, wherever he goes.
Chelsea are also closely monitoring Copenhagen’s Roony Bardghji, Real Betis’ Assane Diao and Lille centre-back Leny Yoro and 16-year-old Fluminense winger Matheus Reis, among others.
Which players could leave?
Trevoh Chalobah is the most likely to exit having fallen out of favour with Pochettino.
The academy product will be the sixth-choice centre-back by the time Wesley Fofana returns from injury and is keen to go somewhere he will play.
He has been heavily linked with Bayern Munich and more recently AS Roma, who are also reportedly keen on signing Malang Sarr.
Whether Chalobah’s exit will be on loan or permanent will depend largely on interest, although a permanent deal being delayed until next summer may well suit the club from an FFP perspective.
As an academy product, Chalobah will count as pure profit on the books, something which could well help balance out of the eventual striker move.
Aside from this, the biggest issues are contract-related. No progress has been made on Gallagher’s contract renewal, although the player himself said last week “I’m sure it will get itself sorted out” and that he fully intends to stay. Gallagher’s contract expires in July 2025 and despite establishing himself as a key part of Chelsea’s midfield, the Englishman seems no closer to ensuring his future.
As with Chalobah, this may well be due to the club weighing up the FFP benefit of a possible sale.
There is similar uncertainty around Ian Maatsen, whose contract also expires the summer after next, although the Dutchman has barely featured under Pochettino. Maatsen has said he is keeping his “options open” after failing to break through. A loan or permanent transfer in January will depend on the offers on the table, with West Ham heavily linked.
i‘s ideal signing (based on the above factors)
Honestly, no-one. For the first time since Thomas Tuchel left, perhaps even Antonio Conte, Chelsea’s squad is coherent and there is a growing sense of collective identity under Pochettino. Protecting this progress has to be the priority, and any new arrivals could threaten this fragile balance.
But if I had to give a name, it would have to be Nusa. The 18-year-old appears to be a phenomenal talent and could be a long-term replacement for Raheem Sterling, one of the few older players in the current squad.
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