Fans of Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Leeds United are all dreading the same thing, particularly with Southampton making a late play for automatic promotion as well.
The Championship title run-in is now comfortably ahead of the Premier League for excitement on account of not having a machine like Manchester City in the lead – and the top three are getting nervous, very nervous.
In the final straight points are being dropped all over the shop, with momentum virtually non-existent. It is looking to be a limp over a line as opposed to a sprint, with the treacherous route of the play-offs awaiting those who narrowly fall short.
No one wants the play-offs. Who would? Apart from West Brom and Norwich, that is, the duo who are a distant fifth and sixth below but could yet upset the odds – or likewise Hull City and Coventry City, the main challengers for those final two places.
The jeopardy that comes with the play-offs – thrilling for the neutral, anxiety inducing for anyone affiliated – is certainly something Leicester, Ipswich and Leeds will want to avoid.
The disappointment of missing out on the automatic route to the Premier League will come with extra weight given how close this race has been, leaving at least one side just eight days to recover between the end of the regular Championship season (4 May) and the start of the semi-finals (12 May).
Throw in the fact third place has only achieved promotion in four of the past 10 seasons and you have a title race for the ages.
Championship state of play – who’s going up?
An impossible question to answer. Just seven points separate the top four with a fortnight to go. Leicester – who are hoping to return to the top flight for the first time since 2023 – are first, with Ipswich in second, Leeds in third and Southampton in fourth.
By proxy of their position, Leicester and Ipswich are therefore favourites to go up, especially if the Foxes win their game in hand next week. That, though, is a right doozy, against Southampton at the King Power Stadium.
Sink the Saints on Tuesday and promotion should be Leicester’s with two more games to go, but equally there is the threat of the opposite and what that could mean.
Leicester had been cruising at the top, 11 points clear as recently as February, but amid financial fair play uncertainty promotion or not they have since endured spells outside of the top two amid a run of just three wins in their last 10 Championship games. Enzo Maresca’s side should do it, but no one is taking anything for granted anymore.
Is there… any momentum?
Last six games
- Leicester: L W W L L W – 9pts
- Ipswich: W W W L D D – 11pts
- Leeds: W D W L D L – 8pts
- Southampton: D L D W W W – 11pts
What the fans think…
i quizzed three fans to gauge the mood at Leicester, Ipswich and Leeds, and from excitement and trepidation to an Asda story you weren’t expecting, it is safe to say this title run-in is getting to everyone.
- Leicester: Ric Flair, from the Big Strong Leicester Boys podcast
- Ipswich: Martin Lambert, from Talking Town podcast
- Leeds: Rocco Dean, from Leeds, That! Podcast and author of The Sons of Revie: Leeds United’s Decade of Dominance
‘Excitement, tension, trepidation’
What is the general mood right now among fans?
Leicester: The mood is one of nagging familiarity that we’ve seen this play out all too many times before. There is a portfolio of capitulations down the stretch at Leicester in the last decade or so despite astonishing success at the same time.
Although this is a new era under Enzo Maresca, it’s hard as fans not to be hugely worried of the mental fragility of the club. We should be home and hosed and yet here we are sweating and toiling in the heat of the battle. We look done for but it’s still in our hands…
Ipswich: Excitement mixed with a dose of tension. Our club, the one that was relegated to League One five years ago to the chorus of Bob Marley’s ‘Don’t Worry’, are just three games away from Premier League.
It’s a dream, one that only plays out on Football Manager that’s unfolding in front of our very eyes. Make no mistake, however, the fans are aware there is a lot of hard work and obstacles to overcome in those three games.
Leeds: Trepidation is the word that springs to mind, and I’m not sure there are any Leeds fans who aren’t concerned about our form since the international break. We’d reached the summit after collecting 37 from 39 available points, on course for a record-breaking season, but we’ve taken only five points from the five games since and every one of them has been a struggle.
It’s impossible not to fear the worst when we’ve seen our team fall at the final hurdle so often in the past, and it doesn’t help that we weren’t there to witness the one time Leeds did make it over the line during the pandemic!
‘The best young coach vs the best team vs bonkers Leicester’
One reason to be optimistic…
Leicester: Leicester City are the most ridiculous football club there’s ever been, no other club of our size has the success we’ve experienced nor the failure and scandals over the last 30-plus years. I’m convinced we are a social experiment and what will be will be. Also Jamie Vardy has one final part to his bonkers career and that’s got to be a promotion after we’d blown it, right?
Ipswich: You have to be optimistic at the moment, the best young coach in the country, playing the best football we’ve seen for decades with goals and edge-of-your-seat excitement is something we have come accustomed to at Portman Road since Kieran McKenna took charge. Portman Road is the place to be for entertaining football.
Leeds: We have the best team! For large parts of this season we have looked too good for the Championship, with a defence that cannot be breached, a midfield that cannot lose possession, and a front four that cannot be tamed. And in Daniel Farke a manager who specialises in winning the Championship, who is always the coolest man in the room!
‘Desperation for success’
One reason to be pessimistic…
Leicester: It would be classic Leicester to defy science once again and throw away a 17-point lead, regain top spot and the challengers around us fail to win in three games, and yet still conspire to not capitalise. The financial precipice this club finds itself in as well makes promotion essential.
Ipswich: There isn’t a whole lot to be pessimistic about at the moment. We possibly missed a chance in the last two home games, but I’m sure Leeds and Leicester fans would be saying the same thing. Will that cost us at the end of the season, who knows.
Leeds: The pressure on the Leeds players is enormous. The fanbase is so passionate, which is great when the team is on a roll, but the desperation for success can weigh down like a ton of bricks and get the better of even the strongest characters. Maybe it’s a good thing that we have two away matches before the final day…
‘Play-offs like an Asda lasagne…’
How would fans feel about the play-off route?
Leicester: I think fans would be a mix of mentally shattered, angry, fearful and dazed. It’s like queuing at the front for four hours waiting for the most highly sought after new restaurant in the world to open, and then just as it’s about to open you’ve been made to go and have a red-hot lasagne down Asda cafe instead. It’s going to leave a bad taste regardless of the outcome and that’s nothing against Asda, I’ve a soft spot for its culinary delights, but it’s about context, perspective and past difficult memories – I’ve burnt my windpipe on said red-hot lasagne before and had to eat yoghurt for a week…
Anyway. We’ve had acrimonious exits from play-off semi-finals courtesy of dubious penalties in both ties and that horrendous Troy Deeney moment… I don’t fancy it at all.
Ipswich: I don’t think Town fans would be disappointed, at the start of the season not many would have had us challenging for the top two. Regardless of how this journey ends, what a journey it’s been. Every fan believes we have a manger and a squad capable across a three game play-off tournament to beat anyone… and yes I personally (some may not) include Norwich in that.
Leeds: Well, there are some fans who would rather not bother entering the play-offs to save the heartache, so that tells a story! But once we get down to business I am certain the fans would rally around the team as passionately as ever, determined to help them over the line.
And if Leeds were to win the play-offs it would dispel the pessimistic belief that Leeds United cannot succeed in them. And we’re well overdue a Wembley win too!
Does third go up via the play-offs?
- 2022-23: Luton Town – Yes
- 2021-22: Huddersfield Town – No (Nottingham Forest, 4th)
- 2020-21: Brentford – Yes
- 2019-20: Brentford – No (Fulham, 4th)
- 2018-19: Leeds – No (Aston Villa, 5th)
- 2017-18: Fulham – Yes
- 2016-17: Reading – No (Huddersfield Town, 5th)
- 2015-16: Brighton – No (Hull City, 4th)
- 2014-15: Norwich – Yes
- 2013-14: Derby County – No (QPR, 4th)
Last time sixth won play-offs was Blackpool in 2009-10
‘Promotion critical for Leicester amid FFP concerns’
How important is promotion? Are the club well set for a potential Premier League return?
Leicester: It is critical that Leicester get promoted this season. With a potential PSR breach for 2022-23 from the Premier League and the EFL under the assumption that 2023-24 will be a further breach without significant player sales before the end of June 2024, it’s a precarious and uncertain future for us.
There’s growing unrest amongst the fans on the way the club has been ran and we’ve perhaps been victims of our own success, but the blueprint for getting out of all of this is simply riding on an immediate return to the top flight.
We hold our breath whilst we wait, and make uncomfortable noises. Supporting Leicester City is beyond words.
Ipswich: Massively important! Premier League football in Suffolk would change the landscape of our club and the wider town overnight, setting us up as a club for the next five-six years. You just have to look at how teams with parachute money normally do to see how much of a landscape-shifting moment it would be.
Leeds: It was a two-year plan to return to the Premier League and we are heading in the right direction. Another season in the Championship is manageable financially and, even if the team is slightly weaker next season, you have to imagine that the challenge for promotion won’t be as stern.
That said, it’s approaching a quarter of a century since Leeds United were an established Premier League club, and that needs fixing ASAP… I feel like Leeds can hit the ground running when we do return, our turnover will be at the higher end of ‘the other 14’, and we can get on with upgrading Elland Road into a stadium worthy of our great club, then push on back into Europe. Easy!
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