Come 19 May when Arsenal and Aston Villa are looking back on the results that defined their respective destinies, their two meetings in December and April will almost certainly be up there.
For Arsenal, zero points from six against Villa marks a damaging double, masterminded by Unai Emery no less, that could provide the primary “what-if” should the Manchester City machine win from here.
In both matches Arsenal were largely on top, enjoying more possession and recording more shots, but that hardly matters given the final 3-0 aggregate scoreline, one that has Villa ending the season as the only Premier League side to shutout the Gunners entirely.
This was a victory therefore not only for Villa but the xG naysayers as well – Aston Villa (0.55) 1-0 (1.58) Arsenal, then Arsenal (1.87) 0-2 (1.33) Aston Villa – a stat that means little to Arsenal after resulting in nothing.
Only the shots that go in really matter, and while Paul Merson’s belief that Arsenal’s title hopes are “gone, 100 per cent” read a little premature, it is the inevitability of City that has extinguished any belief.
“It is now about how we react,” Mikel Arteta said. “In any other league in the world, if you won the number of games in a row that we did, you would be six or eight points clear. That is not the case here. That is the challenge.”
The trends of 2024 were bucked by Villa’s late show at the Emirates. Arsenal suffered their first Premier League defeat since New Year’s Eve, while Villa ended their torrid run against Big Six sides that turned on a sixpence in late December.
Villa had already beaten Arsenal and City in the lead-up to Christmas, two victories that transformed them into title outsiders, but on Boxing Day they succumbed to a Manchester United comeback, losing 3-2 after leading 2-0.
From there, in 2024 Villa were unable to win any of their five meetings against Big Six opposition prior to Sunday’s Arsenal game; getting knocked out by Chelsea in the FA Cup, losing to United again, then falling heavily to Tottenham and City.
The Spurs game in particular was supposed to be the game-changer in the race for fourth, but suddenly after a favour from Newcastle and reversing this Big Six fault the outlook is a little rosier for Villa, who are three points ahead of Ange Postecoglou’s side having played a game more.
With a fifth Champions League spot far from certain, finishing fourth is the calmer route to paradise as opposed to waiting on coefficients that will continue to swing until the Champions League final on 1 June, and Villa’s fate looks to be back in their hands.
Anyone would pick their run-in on paper over Spurs’, with Villa’s toughest remaining match at home against Liverpool on the penultimate weekend – a chance to crush another dream, providing it isn’t over already.
Spurs, meanwhile, are still to face the top three with a match at Chelsea also on the horizon. They will be more than up for ending Arsenal’s title hopes once and for all on 28 April, and could yet trouble City after travelling to Liverpool, but it would be a tall order to take points from all three.
It’s not out of the question, but a difficult ask, while for Villa it will be a case of safely hurdling down a final straight that also has silverware beckoning at the end of it.
Their quarter-final with Lille is finely poised going into Thursday’s return leg, but what better preparation for this Europa Conference League tie than a performance that renewed confidence and look assured even without the influential Douglas Luiz.
The fear that injuries and fatigue could derail this remarkable season was very real, and remains so in these final two months, but with at most nine games to go – a tally that would take them to Athens for the Conference League final – the finish line is in sight.
A highest Premier League placing since 1995-96 is a distinct prospect, as is a first major trophy since 1996 as well, and that should give Villa all the energy they need to realise at least one dream – and maybe two.
And if they fall short? Well, fifth place while navigating a deep run in Europe is some going for a side that were 12th two years ago today, and the experience of this campaign will stand them in good stead going forward – providing they keep hold of their ultimate difference-maker.
That is, of course, Señor Emery, who is the undisputed Premier League manager of the season.
Anyone who gate-crashes the Big Six warrants this award over coaches with far greater resources, and after Eddie Howe was bafflingly overlooked last year for Pep Guardiola, surely this time around those that vote will see sense.
We won’t hold our breath.
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