Bayern Munich’s shock 3-2 defeat at Heidenheim, having led 2-0 at half-time, wasn’t ideal preparation for arguably their most significant game of the season against Arsenal in the Champions League quarter-final.
Often Bayern have the luxury of focusing solely on Europe when spring rolls around, but this time it is a necessity with their chances of winning a 12th consecutive Bundesliga all but over. Unbeaten leaders Bayer Leverkusen are 16 points clear with six games to go.
After being humiliated by third-tier Saarbrucken in the German Cup in November, Bayern’s hopes of preventing a calamitous first trophyless campaign in 12 years now rest upon winning the Champions League.
i analyses the reasons behind Bayern’s downfall with the help of Bundesliga commentator Kevin Hatchard.
Gradual decline
It may seem as though Bayern have had a rare off-season, but their issues can be traced back further. Borussia Dortmund were as guilty of losing last season’s Bundesliga title as Bayern were responsible for winning it, drawing at home against mid-table Mainz on the final day to cede first place on goal difference.
Had Bayern not won the title, the decision to sack Julian Nagelsmann and install Thomas Tuchel in his place would have received more scrutiny and criticism. Nagelsmann was surprisingly dismissed at the end of March last year with Bayern one point off the top of the Bundesliga.
Bayern CEO Oliver Kahn and sporting director Hasan Salihamidzic followed him out the door two months later after being sacked on the same day that Bayern were confirmed German champions for the 33rd time.
“I felt at the time and definitely still feel now that it was a mistake to get rid of Nagelsmann,” Hatchard tells i.
“There was a feeling, rightly or wrongly that Oliver Kahn and Hasan Salihamidzic felt that somebody needed to carry the can for the fact that they were a bit up and down.
“There was a narrative pushed out that he had lost the dressing room. I think the fact that Nagelsmann is now being linked with a return now that Salihamidzic and Kahn have been sacked tells you a lot about how Bayern realise they were a bit hasty.”
Nagelsmann will take charge of Germany at this summer’s home European Championship.
Tuchel’s tactics
When Bayern appointed Tuchel it seemed like an opportunistic swoop for a recent Champions League-winning manager. Tuchel was available, so Bayern went and got him.
It has not gone to plan for either party. Tuchel has suffered reputational damage for how Bayern’s season has unravelled and in February it was announced that he would leave this summer, a year before his contract expires, due to a “a sporting realignment”.
Tuchel’s downfall has partly arisen out of his inability to rectify structural issues in his team despite being in charge for over a year.
“They lost 3-0 to RB Leipzig in the [German] Super Cup and the same problems that they’d had under Tuchel previously were still there,” Hatchard explains.
“They looked really vulnerable from counter-attacks, had big gaps in midfield and did not really play with any kind of control. That was a big concern – how easily they lost that game.”
Those issues have flared up regularly in recent months, particularly in damaging defeats to Frankfurt, Leverkusen and Dortmund since December.
A number of players, meanwhile, have struggled to maintain their top form, notably Alphonso Davies, who is expected to join Real Madrid this summer, Joshua Kimmich and Leon Goretzka.
Injuries have also played a part, although Bayern are expected to have all of their big hitters available in north London with Manuel Neuer, Leroy Sane and Kingsley Coman all training on Monday after missing the defeat to Heidenheim.
Bayer Leverkusen’s unexpected rise
Poor as Bayern have been at times they could still end the Bundesliga season on 78 points if they win their remaining six matches. That would be the most points earned by a runner-up since Dortmund achieved that number in 2015-16.
Bayern’s standards have undeniably dropped but ordinarily they would still be well-placed to win the title. The difference this time is that Xabi Alonso’s Leverkusen have been utterly relentless in a manner that previous title challengers haven’t been, dropping only eight points all season.
“Nobody has ever done what they are doing,” Hatchard says. “They’ve gone 41 games unbeaten in all competitions. Not even Bayern have done that.”
It says plenty about Leverkusen’s excellence that they are on course to win a historic treble, having previously only won two major honours in their 120-year history.
They are top of the Bundesliga, face West Ham in the quarter-final of the Europa League and play second-tier FC Kaiserslautern in the German Cup final.
Tempting as it is to blame Bayern for surrendering their dominance so meekly, doing so overlooks just how outstanding Leverkusen have been.
No blame for Kane
If there is one person blameless for Bayern’s demise it is Harry Kane, who has enjoyed a magnificent debut year in Germany after making a record-breaking £85m move from Tottenham last August.
Kane has scored 32 goals and provided seven assists in 28 Bundesliga matches and could yet match or surpass Robert Lewandowski’s all-time record for most goals in a single season, with 41 the score to beat.
The England captain has also struck four hat-tricks in the league, becoming the first player to do so in their first season in Bundesliga history.
“He’s absolutely not seen as the problem,” Hatchard says. “I get the impression that people appreciate how much he has embraced being a Bayern player and the culture.
“He always takes time to sign autographs so much so that he dropped a box of schnitzel rolls – because he’s really got into them apparently – as he was signing autographs. He had to put it in the bin which was a bit of a shame for him!
“Considering what a big signing he was and that there were a lot of people lining up to castigate Bayern for spending that money on him, actually his performances have been very warmly received.”
Can they beat Arsenal?
Bayern were Arsenal’s kryptonite during the late Arsene Wenger era, beating them 5-1 in three consecutive Champions League matches, including in both legs of the last-16 in 2016-17.
Based on recent form, though, Arsenal are the undeniable favourites. The Gunners have been magnificent in 2024, winning 11 of their 14 matches in all competitions, including 10 out of 11 in the Premier League.
Mikel Arteta’s side have struck a winning formula of scoring plenty of goals while keeping them to a minimum at the other end. Arsenal have scored 38 times and conceded just four in the league this year.
Nevertheless, Bayern’s pedigree, experience and track record in the Champions League counts for plenty. There is no shortage of talent in their ranks either with Kane’s supporting cast comprising of Jamal Musiala, Sane and Coman, with the veteran Thomas Muller in reserve.
“Bayern will always be confident because in the Champions League they do have such a good record,” Hatchard says.
“I find it a really interesting tie. I see it as 50-50 because Bayern have all of that crucial Champions League experience that does make a difference when you get to this stage but in terms of being a cohesive unit and having a lot of quality when you don’t have the ball, Arsenal are definitely ahead of them.”
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