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Even the most optimistic Newcastle United supporter would struggle to argue that this result hasn’t been coming.
Eddie Howe, typically an upbeat “we are infinitely stronger when we banish negative thought” kinda guy, admitted that this was the worst Newcastle had played this season and that the other performances were far from perfect.
The talk of unrest between Howe and new sporting director Paul Mitchell had been very easy to ignore when the team had a chance to go top of the league.
With a poor defeat – and worse display – at Fulham, that subject will be open to further suggestion and euphemism.
Against Southampton, Newcastle were thankful for profligacy. Against Wolves and Tottenham, they were kept alive by an opponent who failed to kill off the game when in the ascendancy.
This time the luck ran out. The threat of another comeback was extinguished late on and Howe had few complaints on the balance of play.
Bruno Guimaraes is not quite at it – he made a mistake for a goal. Anthony Gordon hasn’t rediscovered last season’s form and, as such, Alexander Isak is struggling for touches in the penalty area.
Newcastle are suffering lapses in concentration at the back that may stem from Howe working out what his best defence is now.
The impact is obvious. Newcastle maintained progress during their injury crisis last season because they accepted some chaos. They were 14th in the league for allowing shots, but also ranked fourth for expected goals (xG) behind only Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool.
This season, Newcastle only rank 16th for shots per game, a small sample size but a clear regression from last season. That’s fine if you are doing what Arsenal now try to: fewer shots but better chances on average. To an extent, Newcastle are doing the same.
But for that to work you need to ensure that you do not allow your opponents to build pressure by repeatedly allowing shots on your own goal, and only Brentford have allowed more per game than Newcastle over the first five matches. That’s… absolutely not how Howe made this team tick.
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