Dear Leicester City and Ipswich Town, we’re sorry.
Very few gave this season’s promoted trio a fighting chance, expecting them to follow in the footsteps of Burnley, Luton Town and Sheffield United, who in May became the second promoted trio of the Premier League era to go straight back down.
Fears that the Championship-Premier League gap was widening led to dreary predictions. Gary Neville tipped Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton to all go down, while his Sky Sports pal Jamie Carragher backed only Ipswich to stay up and for Nottingham Forest to be relegated instead. Ahem.
Elsewhere, Alan Shearer felt the same as Neville, likewise Phil McNulty at BBC Sport, and these gloomy gazes into the crystal ball were backed by Opta’s mighty supercomputer, which simulated the campaign a mere 10,000 times.
Prior to the season starting, Leicester were relegated on 6,030 of those hypothetical occasions, making for 60.3 per cent, while for Ipswich it was 64.7 per cent and Southampton 66.7 per cent.
No guesses for which club’s prospects have got far worse, but while Southampton look doomed, Ipswich and Leicester are defying expectations and giving the table a considerably different look to how it did 12 months ago.
This time last year the writing was already on the wall for Burnley, Luton Town and Sheffield United.
After 11 games they had all picked up one Premier League win apiece, but only Bournemouth were faring as badly, tied with Luton on six points while Burnley and Sheffield United both had four.
There was already a mighty gulf of five points between Luton and 16th-placed Everton, and while Andoni Iraola went on to lift Bournemouth to new heights, the outlook got bleaker for the others.
Sheffield United never left the relegation zone from mid-September onwards, likewise Burnley from late October, and while Luton’s spirited resistance lasted longer they were unable to keep pace with Nottingham Forest, who had been handed four points in deductions but still finished six ahead in 17th.
Fast forward to this November international break and Southampton are joined by Wolves and Crystal Palace in the relegation zone, making for a fortnight of head-scratching across more clubs than just the suspected three.
Struggles elsewhere have ensured the relegation scrap is no foregone conclusion many felt it would be, but that is also to Leicester and Ipswich’s credit.
Ipswich’s shock win at Tottenham on Sunday may have been their first victory of the season, but Kieran McKenna’s side have proved persistently stubborn, drawing a league-high five games including against Aston Villa, Brighton and Fulham.
Leif Davis is fourth for big chances created in the Premier League (eight), while Liam Delap is joint-seventh in the scoring charts, with his six goals just two shy of what Burnley had managed overall at the same stage last season.
In Delap, Ipswich appear to have a player Luton, Sheffield United and Burnley were all crying out for last term, a striker that looks capable of hitting the mid-teens. Carlton Morris top-scored for Luton with 11 league goals last year, while Jacob Bruun Larsen was Burnley’s top scorer with six, the same as both Ben Brereton Diaz and Oliver McBurnie at Sheffield United.
And while defensively Ipswich have been leaky – only Wolves (27) boast a worse record than their 22 goals – 12 of their goals conceded have come in three defeats, making for 10 goals shipped in across the other eight games.
The foundations are in place, therefore, and though Opta still have them at 70.7 per cent to go down, winning away at Spurs could be the springboard they need.
“We believe we’ve been improving,” McKenna said on Sunday. “It’s a massive moment, one to cherish.
“To get one over the line like that we’ve deserved for quite a few weeks, it’s a big boost for everyone.”
Leicester meanwhile are yet to secure a big win of Ipswich’s Spurs away proportions, but crucially they have picked up points in matches that fall into the must-not-lose category, beating Southampton and Bournemouth, and picking up draws against Ipswich, Crystal Palace and Everton.
The draw against Tottenham on the opening Monday of the season was also instant proof the Foxes were up for the fight, while escaping a points deduction many had thought was coming has also been pivotal to their chances.
The fear Leicester would even have minus-points to their name at this point was eradicated in early September, and now the fight at the King Power appears to be from within, as manager Steve Cooper continues his battle to win over a fanbase that cannot forget his Nottingham Forest past.
Under his watch Leicester had scored in their first 10 league matches of the season, but Sunday’s 3-0 defeat at Manchester United ended that run and led to jeers from the travelling support at Old Trafford – proof Cooper has less leeway than other managers given his side had more shots on target than the hosts (five to three) but couldn’t get past Andre Onana.
“We know we have creativity and threat in the team, but didn’t maximise that,” Cooper said. “It’s a 3-0 defeat and you’re not going to get cheered off whether you’re here at Old Trafford or anywhere else.
“Like I’ve said before, I have no problem with any fan’s reaction, good or bad, as they’re entitled to that… I’ll accept any situation and be motivated to help it to feel better and get better.”
Whether it will get any better hinges on the fitness of Leicester’s key players. The blow of losing Ricardo Pereira for four months has a worrying parity to the lengthy injury lay-off the full-back suffered two years ago when they were last relegated, while Jamie Vardy’s back problems will also weigh heavy on the shoulders of Cooper.
Nevertheless, Leicester are outperforming last season’s fated three and are crucially surrounded by a handful of other clubs who are stuck in a pickle, and unless this seven-way scrap quickly dwindles in numbers, there is no reason to panic any time soon.
And for the neutral, this is a relief. Competition is the foundation of a football pyramid that is looking increasingly stretched, and for that very reason, we must hope at least one of Leicester or Ipswich can go on to beat the drop.
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