Two words dominate Newcastle‘s transfer thinking heading into an intriguing January transfer window: ambition and realism.
Insiders anticipate that “one or two” incomings – at most – are the height of the club’s ambitions in a New Year that will once again be impacted by the looming threat of balancing the books in the profit and sustainability rules (PSR) era.
Newcastle fans might not like to hear the mantra of the last 18 months repeated but the reality is that the club expects to have to make further sales to generate PSR headroom in 2025.
There will be some benefit from failing to sign Marc Guehi in the summer, a deal that would have maxed out Newcastle’s capacity to spend and made departures inevitable over the next two transfer windows.
Guehi was viewed as an exceptional prospect who was keen to move to St James’ Park, hence the summer-long pursuit. But in the end, it was a transfer deal that fast-tracked a re-think to a more strategic, long-term approach that may require time to bear fruit.
If that’s the realism part, here is the part that should satisfy Newcastle supporters looking for proof that the club retains hope of breaking into the top four.
Their remit in the next two transfer windows is players who can “move the dial” in the words of one recruitment executive.
If the summer was more about re-stocking the squad (Lloyd Kelly, Will Osula and Odysseas Vlachodimos arrived to lift the level of the back-ups) the club aim to pivot to adding players to challenge the starting XI immediately while picking up untapped potential from emerging markets like France’s Ligue 2.
As i reported back in October, Brentford’s Bryan Mbeumo is one of those dream targets, a right winger with serious credentials to improve them. But it feels as if it will be a tough, almost impossible, task to prise him away in January.
The boxes Newcastle intend to tick moving forward are these: ambitious targets – possibly already full internationals – who are the right age with potential to improve.
And then the big one: alignment from director of football Paul Mitchell, who wants to move to targeting more overseas talent, with manager Eddie Howe, whose stock has risen with majority owners PIF both for the way he managed the summer’s tension in the hierarchy and the recent revival on the field.
Mitchell told a fan event in Newcastle this week that his relationship with Howe was good and that backs up what insiders say of a developing “professional” partnership who have put any initial tension behind them.
There has been little tangible progress yet and Howe says January is “unpredictable” for the club.
“I know no one wants to hear it, but January is always a difficult window so I don’t think we should necessarily go into it expecting any different to any other previous January,” he said.
Newcastle have held early initial meetings – the data and insights team have been engaged in identifying players, both for the first team and development prospects – but Newcastle’s direction for the month does not appear fully formed yet. That should change in the next few weeks.
So do Newcastle have capacity to spend in January?
First the good news: there is no PSR iceberg waiting for Newcastle this summer. That frightening prospect – along with a general slowing of the market – left the Magpies unable to strengthen in January 2024.
Despite owners with the deepest of pockets who appreciated the need for reinforcements in the middle of an injury crisis, even a loan deal for Manchester City’s Kalvin Phillips proved beyond Newcastle.
It is different this year. They are not starting the month on the back foot but there is an acknowledgement that any major investment in January would probably bring the need for sales to balance the PSR ledger in the summer.
The calculation they will therefore have to run in the New Year is whether the player is worth it to the extent of subsequent sales being needed to offset the threat of breaching the regulations.
Those inside the club feel those opportunities may present themselves. Rayan Cherki, of cash-strapped Lyon, has been watched by Newcastle, while Lille forward Jonathan David is another whose contract is close to expiring who is appreciated by the Magpies, who haven’t been especially nimble or reactive in the market of late.
Had Newcastle signed Guehi for the price Crystal Palace were demanding, they would have been in a far more difficult position. That is why they walked away back then, even if that decision sparked dismay in the fanbase.
The hope is that will benefit them from a PSR perspective in the long-term while also serving notice to selling clubs that they will not pay a “Newcastle tax”.
Do Newcastle need to sell?
Yes and no. Insiders are certain there’s no looming PSR breach to contend with, so the pressure is off.
But if they want to make serious inroads in the coming seasons they are going to have to get better at player trading. That, put simply, is a big part of why Mitchell was appointed as director of football with a remit to shake things up from a recruitment perspective.
But it’s complicated. While last summer Bruno Guimaraes felt the most likely departure with a £100m release clause setting the terms for possible suitors, i now understands that selling the Brazil international would make little sense from a PSR perspective if the price was around £70m. Agents fees and associated costs would eat into profit margins.
The club do not want to sell Alexander Isak either, even if initial talks over a new contract have been shelved. It may be that other options are considered.
What is the PSR situation?
Still tight but with possible room to manoeuvre.
Football finance expert Kieran Maguire told i last month that Newcastle may have capacity to spend up to £100m between now and June 2025. Those numbers are based on the amortisation of players’ contracts: a £50m signing on a five-year contract counts as £10m towards PSR calculations.
“The sales of Minteh and Anderson go into the pot and they’re both very lucrative from a PSR perspective so it does buy the club some space,” he said.
Newcastle have always counselled that it is less than that. Another point to consider: the Magpies are one of several clubs keeping an eye on the machinations around Associated Party Transactions (APT).
While few believe it will be a huge game changer, if rules are eased it opens the way for significantly improved commercial deals with PIF-related entities which would ease Newcastle’s PSR position considerably.
from Football - inews.co.uk https://ift.tt/RwVqzxs
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