The new-look league phase of the Champions League is past the halfway stage, with three rounds of matches remaining.
The format has drawn some criticism, but it has also delivered shocks – Aston Villa beating Bayern Munich, for one – as well as some blockbuster match-ups, ideal for Uefa as they show off their shiny new toy to the world.
Liverpool’s recent 2-0 win over Real Madrid was a revenge of sorts, and maintains their perfect start in this competition, while Arsenal are in a strong position but have more work to do to reach the last 16 automatically.
The top eight teams will go into the draw for the round of 16 and bypass the knockout play-off round, which will be played in February by teams who finish between ninth and 24th in this 36-team table.
Villa are still dreaming of a top-eight finish themselves despite stuttering of late, while 2023 winners Manchester City are unlikely to finish eighth or higher based on Opta’s predictions.
The Opta supercomputer has ongoing calculations for where each team could finish, and at the start of the season their simulation showed 15 points as the marker likely needed to place eighth or higher.
Like Celtic, the maximum City can now get is 17 points, meaning unless they finish strongly – and their remaining fixtures mean they could keep stumbling – they could face two extra games to get to a stage Liverpool are almost certainly going straight through to.
How many points needed to qualify from Champions League league phase
Opta’s simulation before the campaign started worked out that teams with 10 points at the end of the league phase had a 99 per cent chance of finishing in the top 24.
Teams with 12 points were unlikely to trouble the top eight, but the chances slowly start creeping up on 13 points, with 14 points having a 28 per cent likelihood of making the top eight.
That jumps to 73 per cent with 15 points and 98 per cent for 16 points, meaning 17 points – which would require five wins, two draws and one loss – is essentially guaranteeing a top-eight spot.
Liverpool
Liverpool are sitting pretty at the top of the Champions League table as the only club to have won their first five matches.
Arne Slot’s Premier League leaders will almost certainly secure a top-eight spot, given they are on 15 points, five ahead of a handful of teams from sixth down to 12th.
Opta give Liverpool just a 1.7 per cent chance of finishing outside the top eight, and make them the favourites to finish first given their imperious start.
Winning their remaining three matches will guarantee top, but otherwise it looks as though they will need to match or better the results of Inter Milan, Barcelona and Borussia Dortmund below them.
Arsenal
Arsenal are currently seventh in the table after three wins, one draw and one defeat. Like Aston Villa below they are among the seven teams all locked on 10 points after five games.
This is just what Uefa wanted with this revamped format, a jeopardy that could last until the final round of fixtures on 29 January, when 18 matches all take place at 8pm UK time.
Arsenal have Monaco (h), Dinamo Zagreb (h) and Girona (a) to come, and two wins should be enough to ensure they finish in the top eight. Opta give them a 69.6 chance of doing so.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa may be on the same amount of points as Arsenal but they are deemed touch and go to qualify directly for the last 16.
Having briefly topped the Champions League table, defeat at Club Brugge and a home draw with Juventus have seen them slip to ninth.
With two away trips to come, RB Leipzig and Monaco, before a home game against Celtic, the goal is clear but may not be so easily achieved.
All but guaranteed a place in the knockout play-offs – there’s just a 0.1 per cent chance of finishing outside in 25th – they are given just a 17.5 per cent chance of making the top eight.
Nevertheless, it is more than possible, while finishing between ninth and 16th would at least mean they are seeded for the draw of the play-off round against the sides 17th through to 24th.
Man City
Who thought Manchester City would be so low down? After five games Pep Guardiola’s side are 17th in the table after two wins, two draws and one defeat.
Their recent capitulation from 3-0 up to drawing 3-3 at home with Feyenoord was a reminder there are no gimmes in this format and no chance for revenge in the reverse match either.
It seems likely that City require a perfect finish to have any chance of making the top eight. Three wins would take them up to 17 points, but that is no guarantee given their next two matches are away to Juventus and then Paris Saint-Germain before they host Club Brugge.
A February play-off tie is therefore looking the most likely outcome for City, and Opta agree, giving them a 15.5 per cent chance of the top eight.
Celtic
Celtic are down in 20th with eight points, an indication of how tight this table is. The Scottish champions are a win away from going potentially sixth.
They also have a four-point cushion between themselves and 25th, which is currently and remarkably occupied by PSG, while just above them are Real Madrid in 24th on six points.
With both Real and PSG expected to go through, Celtic will know they cannot rest on their laurels, although Opta have them at just 5.2 per cent to finish 25th or lower.
Celtic are in the same boat as City in terms of points and what is required to make the top eight, and their outlook will become clearer after the trip to Dinamo Zagreb on 10 December.
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