Phil Foden has always been an idea worth believing in. English football has produced players of his freewheeling talent so rarely they become almost mythical, a pathological hunt for sporting liberals in an inherently conservative nation. Lead us to freedom Phil, because we clearly can’t do it ourselves.
Depending how deep your interest in England’s age-group success goes, Foden likely either entered your consciousness as the best player in the 2017 Under-17 World Cup-winning squad or when Pep Guardiola proclaimed his genius to the world. In July 2019, with Foden three starts into his Premier League career, Guardiola called him “the most, most, most talented player I have ever seen in my career as a manager”.
That meant the same thing then as it does now: better than Lionel Messi. And, while we’re at it, better than Xavi, Andres Iniesta, Samuel Eto’o, Sergio Busquets, Thierry Henry, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, David Silva, Kevin De Bruyne, Sergio Aguero and Yaya Toure. No pressure, kid. Go out there and have fun.
And so this was the immaculate birth of the next English footballing prodigy, to the reigning Premier League champions who would then win four of the next five titles. We’ve only ever viewed him through that lens.
At club level, he has only ever been associated with success and bathed in brilliance, one of an all-star cast. This is not his fault, but it certainly helps erect a protective reputational bubble around him. So long as Guardiola believes he belongs at City, so long as he appears to fit in, who are we to disagree?
Perhaps the only way to truly assess Foden is against his peers. His natural comparator is Cole Palmer, but perhaps the more interesting one is James Maddison.
Playing for a side 14th in the Premier League, without an England appearance since coming off the bench against Bosnia and Herzegovina last June and a poster boy for Tottenham Hotspur’s struggles, Maddison is outperforming Foden across the board. League goals per 90 minutes this season: 0.53 to 0.39. Assists per 90: 0.3 to 0.11. Expected goals (xG) per 90: 0.34 to 0.27.
A significantly higher percentage of Maddison’s shots are on target – 45.9 to 32 – while completing more passes per match covering a wider area. He also takes more touches and beats his man more often and more successfully, all while Spurs are playing chicken with relegation.
It’s worth adding that bar number of completed passes and touches, Palmer also beats Foden across all these metrics this season, despite not scoring or assisting since 14 January. This is true with or without penalties.
Beyond that, Maddison is largely matching or topping Foden’s baseline statistics from 2023-24 – which one official Premier League compilation dubs “The Season of Phil Foden”.
A supposedly failing Maddison is ahead of PFA Player of the Year Foden on xG per 90, assists per 90, percentage of shots on target, goals per shot and shot-creating actions. He’s creating better chances for himself, taking them more regularly and doing the same for his teammates.
So perhaps the central point in all this is not as much about Foden as about how a player’s environment impacts wider perceptions of them.
Phrased another way: how much of Foden’s reputation is the result of only ever representing perhaps the best English club side ever? He has now won two Premier League Young Player of the Years and one Player of the Year without ever actually being the top flight’s best young player or player.
Let’s start with this season. As City have declined, so has Foden, bar one four-game January stretch. Despite rising to occasions last season, he has since appeared incapable of elevating himself to elevate the team around him.
Maybe this can be partially attributed to burn-out earlier in the season, something he’s spoken about after playing 53 club matches in 2023-24, but he has still only scored once in 13 games against sides in the Premier League’s top eight this season. He hasn’t scored or assisted against Liverpool since 2021 or Arsenal since April 2023.
The only evidence we have of Foden away from Manchester is his international career, which doesn’t exactly present an ideal case for his talent. Four goals across 43 appearances – one every 708 minutes – is dire, not helped by neither scoring nor assisting in his last 15 starts, including every game at Euro 2024.
Foden’s last international goal was against Scotland in September 2023, following a brace against Iceland in November 2020 and one against Wales in Qatar, a tournament he entered having dyed his hair blonde to brand himself the Gen Z Gazza. His England assists have come against Iceland, San Marino, Andorra, Albania, Ivory Coast and Senegal. Something hasn’t worked here.
The question is whether Thomas Tuchel can change that, or believes he should have to. English football no longer needs him as they once thought they might – selection is now an exercise in how many similar players can fit in one starting XI. Places must either be earned or lost. It doesn’t help that we still don’t know his best position in all of this.
A year ago, at the height of Fodenmania, Guardiola conceded “Phil is not the level from Leo, but he is winning games”. Now 24, Foden’s grand image is slowly melting, revealing a reality more complex and harder to understand.
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