Aston Villa doing themselves a mighty favour and one of Manchester United or Tottenham Hotspur defying their domestic form to reach the Champions League next season? It could happen.
With Liverpool coasting to glory and the promoted trio of Southampton, Ipswich Town and Leicester City all set to go back down, the race to secure Champions League football is now the Premier League’s most intriguing battle.
Below Liverpool and second-placed Arsenal, eight teams are separated by nine points in the table, and while that would typically mean there are two Champions League spaces left to fight for – this season it looks to be three.
That is because the Premier League is on course to secure a fifth Champions League spot, offering high-flying Nottingham Forest a buffer in this season to remember, and also Chelsea and Manchester City – currently fourth and fifth respectively – what could be a valuable safety net.
It also gives the chasing pack hope. Villa’s domestic form has been patchy despite impressing in the Champions League, but they are among the teams between sixth and 10th – Brighton and Newcastle above them, Bournemouth and Fulham below – separated by five points.
They all have City in their sights, with Newcastle notably level with Pep Guardiola’s side, meaning it could well go down to the final day, and wait, there’s more, as there’s also a chance the Premier League has six Champions League teams next season, which is where United and Spurs come into play.
And a seventh Champions League team, you say? Well, that’s probably on Villa doing the unthinkable. So let’s get explaining.
The boring part: How Uefa’s race for extra Champions League places works
The Champions League’s new 36-team format has resulted in Uefa offering an extra spot to the two leagues performing best in their European competitions.
This is decided by the coefficient table, ranking how each nation fares in Europe.
Every result across the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League counts towards a league’s overall coefficient score – two points for a win, one for a draw, zero for a loss.
There are also bonus points on offer, depending on where each team finishes in the league phase of their respective European competition.
The overall points score is then divided by how many teams from one league are playing in Europe – and that is how the coefficient table is ranked.
So… What does that actually mean?
For example, the Premier League has seven teams playing in Europe this season. Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool and Manchester City in the Champions League, Manchester United and Tottenham in the Europa League, and Chelsea in the Conference League.
Strong finishes for English sides across the league phase of all three competitions resulted in 62.25 bonus points for England, and now into the knockout phases only Manchester City are out.
That means the remaining six Premier League sides can still contribute points towards England’s average, with their current score of 22.178 comfortably leading the way ahead of Spain’s 19.892 and Italy’s 18.937.
Uefa’s coefficient table
Brackets indicate how many teams are left in Europe
- 1. England: 22.178 – (6/7)
- 2. Spain: 19.892 – (6/7)
- 3. Italy: 18.937 – (4/8)
- 4. Germany: 16.671 – (4/8)
- 5. Portugal: 16.250 – (2/5)
- 6. France: 15.285 – (3/7)
- 7. Belgium: 15.250 – (3/5)
- 8. Netherlands: 15.083 – (4/6)
- 9. Greece: 12.187 – (2/4)
- 10. Norway: 10.812 – (2/4)
How the Premier League can secure a fifth Champions League spot
In short, the Premier League teams still in Europe just need to keep advancing. The buffer between England in first and Italy in third is helped by the fact England still have six sides left in Europe to Italy’s four.
Arsenal, Liverpool and Villa all won the opening legs of their first-leg last-16 ties in the Champions League, and should they all advance this week it would only strengthen England’s hold on first.
The main Champions League stumbling block is the fact Liverpool will meet Villa in the quarter-finals if both progress from the last-16, removing at least one English side from the equation.
However, a potential all-English quarter would also guarantee one side in the semis, adding further points to the coefficient table.
In the Europa League, Manchester United and Tottenham cannot meet until the final, but both are in danger of going out heading into their return legs on Thursday. United drew 1-1 at Real Sociedad last week, while Spurs lost 1-0 at AZ Alkmaar.
Chelsea, meanwhile, are the runaway Conference League favourites, and with a 2-1 lead over Copenhagen heading into the return leg at Stamford Bridge on Thursday, they are on course to reach the last eight.
By comparison, Spain also have six sides left in Europe but at least one will go out this week with Real Madrid facing Atletico Madrid in the last-16.
Barcelona are well placed to advance in the Champions League, but beyond that qualification is less certain. In the Europa League, Sociedad head to Old Trafford level with United going into Thursday’s return leg, while Athletic Bilbao trail Roma 2-1. In the Conference League, Real Betis are level with Guimaraes.
The Premier League is also in such a position of strength because the nations third and fourth, Italy and Germany, have just four clubs left in Europe from their original eight.
It would therefore take a significant week of exits for Premier League sides to hamper England’s prospects.
If Arsenal, Liverpool, Villa and Chelsea can all back-up their first-leg wins and advance, that is ideal. If United and Spurs can both join the party, then it could be all-but secure.
Wait… could the Premier League have six Champions League teams?
Technically, yes. On top of fifth place in the Premier League becoming an extra Champions League spot, it is also worth remembering the Europa League winners are rewarded with a place in Uefa’s premier competition.
That gives Manchester United and Tottenham more than just silverware to play for. Both clubs have struggled domestically this season, with the pair 13 points behind fifth-placed Manchester City.
As a result, United and Spurs’ best route to the Champions League is by winning the Europa League.
Form would suggest this is a tall order, likewise the close last-16 ties they are midway through playing, but they are still ranked among the favourites to win the competition with Lazio, Athletic Bilbao and Roma also viewed as contenders.
Hang on… didn’t you say seven?
Well, yes. Let’s say the Premier League does get a fifth Champions League spot, then United or Spurs do win the Europa League, then there is a way a seventh English team qualifies.
That would only really be possible, given Arsenal and Liverpool’s current league position, if Villa finish outside the top five and win the Champions League.
The reward for winning the Champions League is a place in the following season’s league phase.
All that requires then is for Villa to see off Club Bruges, then Liverpool or Paris Saint-Germain, then maybe Real Madrid, then potentially Bayern Munich or Barcelona in the final. Easy.
Villa would much rather target fifth, or ideally fourth, in the Premier League, but of course this is a dream scenario for Villa fans, something bookmakers have out at 33-1.
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