Premier League clubs are braced for “carnage” when the “imminent” Manchester City 130 charges verdict drops – with warnings that the aftershocks are almost certain to extend into next season or even beyond.
In boardrooms and legal chambers that specialise in sports governance, the case has exercised minds for almost two years.
On the field it has simmered in the background as Pep Guardiola’s all-conquering City lifted silverware while the process of trying 130 charges related to various breaches of financial fair play has played out.
Now a verdict is close, with Guardiola himself saying he anticipated a verdict would arrive this month. Those with knowledge of the timeline of similar cases believe an initial finding by a three-man independent commission, which could run to hundreds of pages detailing the charges, could come “any day now”.
But legal experts have told The i Paper that will be the starting pistol for another prolonged battle, with the hearing itself possibly split into two parts (an initial verdict followed by a hearing by the same commission into possible punishment that could run to a fortnight) and the prospect of lengthy appeals that will slow any resolution to a case that feels seismic for the future of English football.
“I very much doubt it’ll be resolved this season,” Stefan Borson, an expert in legal and governance matters and former Manchester City advisor, tells The i Paper.
He explains that with so much still “unknown” – including what City have specifically been accused of and whether any of the charges have been dropped or admitted to before the hearing began in December – it has been difficult for even the sharpest legal minds to come to an agreement on how it is going to play out.
But all agree have coalesced on one thing: this verdict has the potential to shape the game for years to come.
What happens next?
We wait for a verdict. Guardiola said on 8 February that he expected to hear the verdict of the commission in “one month”, which if interpreted precisely is a date that has only just passed.
Whether that’s strictly accurate is another thing: the Premier League and Manchester City locked horns over when to release the verdict on associated parties transactions. Given the scale and size of this case it could be a few days after both sides get the verdict that the public find out about it – assuming it doesn’t leak before then.
So, what if Man City win?
If Manchester City defeat all 130 of the charges, it will be the definitive exoneration they have craved since first being charged by Uefa for financial breaches six years ago. It will also end talk of applying asterisks to their achievements and likely clear the way for further decades of dominance on the pitch.
One word of caution: “total” exoneration feels “unlikely” to those who have spent time studying the case. Some of the charges relate to non-cooperation – refusing to comply with elements of the investigation – and those could be less difficult to prove. City, for their part, have always pointed out that the original Football Leaks revelations that prompted many of these charges were through illegal hacking.
If City do win the short-term result will be – in the words of one Premier League executive The i Paper spoke to – “carnage”.
“I don’t think the roof comes in straight away or anything, but it significantly weakens the Premier League’s hand on the rules. Would the whole financial fair play edifice be next?” they pondered.
Aaryaman Banerji, head of football governance at investment consultants Lane, Clark & Peacock, agrees. He believes any clubs breaching profitability and sustainability rules (PSR) – or their probable successor squad cost controls – might be emboldened to challenge not just the verdict but the rules themselves in court.
“The Premier League’s authority has been challenged in recent seasons, both domestically and internationally,” he says.
“In the 2023-2024 season alone, the league spent £45m in legal fees against its own clubs. If Manchester City can claim victory, it would further undermine the Premier League.”
The future of chief executive Richard Masters would surely come into sharp focus.
What if the Premier League win?
If the substantial charges, of inflating sponsorship income and not revealing the true value of contracts for Roberto Mancini and some players, are proven, it will be a resounding victory for the league and one that will come with a severe punishment.
The Premier League’s lawyer, Adam Lewis KC, is a veteran of these proceedings who is known for going for harsh penalties.
Sports lawyers who have spoken to The i Paper believe the three former judges presiding over the hearing will follow the loose precedent of points deductions handed to Everton and Nottingham Forest for financial breaches. If that is case, in this outcome City can expect a huge points deduction.
In one intriguing development it has emerged that should City be found to have committed the most serious breaches, it may be down to the remaining Premier League clubs to decide if they are relegated.
It remains unclear whether the Independent Commission has the power to circumvent the Premier League’s rulebook and punish the club with expulsion from the league, or whether they would have to make a recommendation that is put to clubs in a special meeting of shareholders.
“The issue of whether Manchester City might be expelled from the Premier League is a complex one,” Aaryaman Banjeri, head of football governance at Lane Clark & Peacock, tells The i Paper.
“Rule B6 of the Premier League’s Handbook stipulates that, in order to trigger the expulsion of one of its members, clubs would have to vote as part of a Special Resolution.
“This would require 15 clubs to vote in favour of expulsion. It will be instructive to see whether the Independent Commission is held to this requirement, or whether this might be worked around, so that the Commission can itself impose such a sanction.”
The fall-out would engulf geo-politics, too. A resounding and humiliating defeat for Abu Dhabi-owned City could strain relations between the United Kingdom and the United Arab Emirates at a time of global uncertainty.
Is that the end of the matter?
It’s inconceivable that this doesn’t rumble on, unfortunately.
Several sports lawyers with vast experience in these kinds of cases have told The i Paper that it is extremely likely either party will appeal the result, depending which way the verdict falls.
There’s simply too much at stake for either side to accept a heavy defeat. Having had time to read the written reasons document before it is made public, it’s likely that either side will announce an intention to appeal at the earliest opportunity.
Given how long the Premier League investigation took – five years – and how long the hearing was – 12 weeks – and how many lawyers were involved on both sides, you can expect an appeal to drag on for several more months, if not a year-plus, after the initial verdict is publicised.
“If City prevail, the Premier League will then have to make a decision: do they want to maintain their strident position to developments, seek an appeal or are they just going to accept it?” Borson says.
“If City are cleared of all or the majority of charges what kind of appeal are the Premier League going to want to pursue? Will they say they are hugely disappointed by the Tribunal if it goes in City’s favour?
“You would think that this is not the PR message the league organiser wants to be giving.
“And on the flipside, if the charges are largely proven against City, the Premier League have, arguably, even bigger issues to deal with – what does that say about the last 10 years of the Premier League?”
Experts also believe that after the fall-out from the APT cases a PR “war” – where both sides flag up areas where they are in the right – is a possibility. Although as Borson points out, given the depth into which the written verdict is expected to go it may be difficult to spin.
Are there are signs on how it will go?
Manchester City’s outlook can be summed up in one word: confident. It has raised eyebrows in the game that their huge January spend – around £200m on young players to rebuild their squad – came after the conclusion of the commission. If they felt it had gone badly, would they have done that?
“I don’t think you can really deny that City are confident,” Borson says.
“The spending, the tone, the Associated Party Transactions [legal] wins, it all points to City being confident. All the soft signals are they are very confident.
“There must be a reason for that level of confidence. I can’t see how, if you felt something very bad was coming, you wouldn’t be dealing with it in a more cautious way.
“The [Erling] Haaland contract, the £200m spent on transfers [and millions more on new wage commitments], the tone of what they say, the [Pep] Guardiola contract, the approach on APT, the way that they have written to other clubs.
“It doesn’t mean they’re right – litigation is notoriously unpredictable – but they definitely think they are right.”
It is a feeling shared by most supporters. Ahsan Naeem, of the leading City podcast 93:20, feels “the wind has gone out of the sails” of the charges.
“I think both sides have come out of that commission, both sides know which way it’s going to land and both sides are moving accordingly,” he says.
“For the Premier League that means no outstanding court or PSR cases when the verdict comes out. It’s better for there to be no more ongoing litigation and there’ll be no more ‘What about City?’
“City have always operated as if it’s business as usual, with confidence. Last summer there was a theory they weren’t spending because of 130 but I didn’t believe that because City don’t work like that. They’re vehemently of the belief that they’ve done nothing wrong so why would they change the way they are?”
Football finance expert Kieran Maguire points to the Premier League’s recent “embarrassing” loss to Leicester – who won an appeal against a potential PSR charge by the Premier League – and upcoming APT case as proof of a feeling the organisation might have bitten off more than it can chew.
Whether confidence in their case is shared by the Premier League isn’t clear. Premier League chief executive Masters told The Financial Times he could say “not one word” on the case last week and the league has so far kept its counsel.
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