In the days after the Brexit referendum the jokes wrote themselves. An undignified second exit from Europe inside five days. Mock-ups of Roy Hodgson and David Cameron queuing outside a job centre. Pictures of Wayne Rooney steering the “Vote Leave” campaign bus.
It was June 2016 and England had crashed out of the European Championship in the last 16 – their biggest humiliation since being knocked out of the 1950 World Cup by the USA. Iceland, with a population of 330,000 and a manager who still practiced dentistry part-time, overcame a toothless English attack despite being ranked 34th in the world.
Panama, this weekend’s opponents, have a similar gulf to overturn – 42nd in the world, playing in just their second ever World Cup. They suffered a 6-1 defeat in their first in 2018 – to England, courtesy of a Harry Kane hat-trick.
The truth about Kane rumours
In Reykjavik, I speak to Kari Arnason, the centre-back who was key to engineering one of the biggest upsets in major tournament history.
“With Premier League players who were established and that level of expectation on them, it almost felt like it was a disadvantage to England that they had so much pressure,” he tells The i Paper.
“Perhaps there was a little bit of complacency as well – I think there was definitely a complacency issue for them going into it. But at the same time, we gave them a hell of a game. And I don’t think they expected that.
“I think they just thought they would have the ball the whole time and could control the narrative. But we weren’t going to let that happen.”
After just four minutes, England took the lead through a Rooney penalty. Their undoing came via a long throw that would not look out of place in the Premier League of 2026. Arnason nodded it to Ragnar Sigurdsson for the equaliser before Kolbeinn Sigthorsson’s shot crept through Joe Hart’s hands.
“There was a rumour that Kane wasn’t willing to swap shirts [at full-time] – that’s a load of bollocks,” says Arnason. “They were nothing but graceful in defeat, no bad blood. They just weren’t happy with losing, so that’s completely understandable. It was just us over the moon and running towards our fans, and them being absolutely distraught.”
‘It wasn’t rocket science’
The question is how another small nation like Panama can replicate those heroics. To secure top spot in Group L, England have to beat them and better Ghana’s result against Croatia – meaning Thomas Tuchel’s side could still finish as runners-up if they cannot score more against Panama than Ghana do against Croatia.
It is part psychological. Iceland’s joint management team of Lars Lagerback and Heimir Hallgrimsson made a point of telling their players that England “were to be got at – they weren’t as good as they thought themselves and what people made them out to be”.
Ghana certainly felt so, denied a late penalty for a foul on Prince Kwabena Adu, head coach Carlos Querioz claiming the VAR had “gone for a coffee”.
And part of it is tactical. For an underdog, Arnason insists “the tactical part is massive. If you get it right, you give the lesser teams a great advantage. If you get it wrong, the lesser team has no chance”.
“Especially as a unit, we were a lot better than people gave us credit for. So we weren’t afraid going into it. We were very strong on set pieces, both for and against. We almost never conceded goals through set pieces, but we scored a lot through corners and long throws and free kicks.
“From one cross I had Wayne Rooney marking me so it was quite a mismatch in that regard, it was just a no-brainer. It’s not rocket since, I’m 6’3” and he’s not 6’3”. He’s a fantastic footballer but it was a mismatch when it comes to aerial duels – throwing it long to me and I would flick it as far as I could and my centre-back partner [Ragnar Sigurdsson] was on the back stick just waiting for Kyle Walker to take his eyes off him and then was free for the tap-in.”
Of Panama’s World Cup squad, 24 of 26 play outside the Liga Panamena de Futbol (LPF) – for Iceland in 2016 it was the entire squad. Iceland had no professional clubs, whereas Panama’s LPF – the top flight – is entirely professional.
Panama are priced at 14-1 and that feels generous. It is an unlikely chance at glory – but one which would make World Cup history if they can pull it off.
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