Thomas Tuchel is perched upon a set of scales, the balance edging up or down depending on the competence of his England team.
Right now he appears no more secure in the minds of the supporters than his predecessor Gareth Southgate. The mess surrounding some of his selections, particularly at full-back, suggest he may have slipped below the levels of supporter confidence enjoyed by Southgate, which is a worry since he was appointed as the anti-Gareth.
The authority he brought to the piece, the notion of Tuchel as an elite technician, the authoritative coach shaped by superior continental ideas, survives by the narrowest of margins and could be erased completely should the Democratic Republic of Congo exhibit the same athleticism and vigour in the round of 32 as their African neighbours Ghana did in the group stage.

The African resurgence may have been facilitated to an extent by the bloated 48-team format. Nevertheless, nine teams progressing to the last 32 suggests the continent’s structural and organisational impediments are no longer holding back its talent. And most feel this tie is anything but straightforward.
Tuchel’s selections have exposed the flaws to which, ultimately, all coaches are vulnerable; prejudice, favouritism, chemistry, the impulses that complicate selections. We convince ourselves that the decisions we make are value free, in the best interests of the group, but in reality Tuchel is responding subjectively in choosing one player above another.
This would account for the inclusion of Reece James at right-back, a footballer made of balsa, at the expense of Trent Alexander-Arnold, who offsets questionable defence with next-level distribution. The selection of Tino Livramento, another with a delicate frame, compounded the James mistake.
Ironically, the one specialist right-back remaining, Djed Spence, was deployed by Tuchel at left-back against Ghana to answer the incomplete performance of Nico O’Reilly against Croatia. This made the exclusion of Lewis Hall and Luke Shaw even harder to comprehend and emulated Southgate’s puzzling preference for Kieran Tripper at left-back, which compromised England’s attacking threat down the left without necessarily enhancing defence.
The injury to Jarell Quansah was plain unlucky, but its significance has been magnified by Tuchel’s indifference to Alexander-Arnold and infatuation with James. Favouritism has clearly impacted the middle of the park in a similar way following injury to Declan Rice.
Jordan Henderson is the ultimate luxury item, included more as a bonding agent than a front-rank midfielder. Rice’s creaking hamstring forced the selection of Jude Bellingham in the deeper No 8 role, a happy dose of serendipity via which Tuchel at least established his most effective position and camouflaged the poverty of output on the wings.
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Surveys of fan opinion reveal a growing disconnection between Tuchel’s world view and theirs. The James fiasco is uppermost, revealing universal disbelief that Alexander-Arnold is not there. The calls for Phil Foden, Cole Palmer and Jarrod Bowen are also growing following the flat contributions of a one-dimensional Anthony Gordon, inconsistent Marcus Rashford and erratic Noni Madueke.
And few can fathom Ivan Toney’s inclusion among the cohort of strikers. Being good at penalties nowhere near justifies it in the eyes of the majority.
None of this will matter should Tuchel be the coach shaking the presidential hands of Donald Trump and Gianni Infantino on 19 July. If not, the hit to his reputation could be terminal, or at least a tax he must pay for the remainder of his career.
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