The penalties at this World Cup have been awful – I think I’ve worked out why
AUGUSTA – Other than the superstar attackers turning up and the Fifa president doing everything to preserve his existing reputation amongst sensible football supporters, the theme of this World Cup has been missed penalties.
In total, 60 penalties have been taken so far – including during shootouts. The conversion rate is just 65 per cent, lower than at any World Cup since 1938. You wouldn’t think that it has got any more difficult for an elite footballer to kick the ball hard into a corner. So what has happened?
Goalkeeper research
It is abundantly clear that the amount of video data available to footballers and coaching staff has risen exponentially. Goalkeepers at international level will have a full breakdown of where every likely taker shoots as their first preference and may look for physiological tics in the run-up and approach to the ball.
But that data has been around a while, right? Well yes, and the data bears that out. Although 2026 has the lowest conversion percentage since 1938, the conversion percentage has actually been dropping ever since the 2014 World Cup. That correlates with the research theory; they’re getting harder to score.
Stutter run-ups
Stuttering your run up – or adding in the Jorginho leap – is an attempt by penalty takers to seize back some of the control that goalkeepers were gaining. Effectively you momentarily stop, either provoking the goalkeeper to give away which way they intend to dive or lose their rhythm and be unable to produce a full-length dive.
Lucas Herrington, 18 years old, should not be taking penalties (Photo: Getty)
The problem at this World Cup? The stutter has stopped working. No longer a surprise tactic, goalkeepers are standing their ground and it’s the takers who seem to be losing their composure. Eight of 16 stutter penalties in regular play have been missed in this tournament. Lionel Messi, Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have all made that same mistake.
I think we may well look back on this World Cup as the last of the stuttered run-up age. Does it make you a Proper Football Man to think that a striker running at a reasonable, steady pace and just hammering a football towards a corner (either deliberately low or towards the top corner) must be the best chance of success?
Poor selection
There is a more route one explanation: have you seen some of the picks in the shootouts? We could already expect the conversion rate to be lower at a World Cup, where there is immense pressure and the onus is always on the taker to score rather than the goalkeeper to save.
But picking the best penalty takers might help. So far, five central defenders (Davinson Sanchez, Lucas Herrington, Harry Souttar, Jonathan Tah and Manuel Akanji) have missed the target with penalties in shootouts and their nations were eliminated. Don’t leave it to centre-backs to do what the attackers should be able to.
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All tournament, we have heard punditry from former goalkeepers who believe that the World Cup ball – the adidas Trionda – is swerving and veering in the air. Anecdotal evidence is undeniable: the ball seems to dip quickly but also move from side to side.
Could this play into the minds of players? If you’re used to aiming for the corner with power, it won’t take much movement for you to hit the woodwork (which has happened several times in this tournament already). Any extra doubt in the taker’s mind is likely to cause overthink that can easily mess with your technique.
The extreme heat
It’s just the added psychological pressure of a World Cup scenario. During regular club seasons, you’re less likely to be taking penalties when under extreme heat pressure. Putting the body and mind under heat stress causes technique fatigue and impairs decision-making through diminished cognitive function.
It makes complete sense, particularly in shootouts. If you ask an experienced taker to step up after 120 minutes of football in summer heat, muscle memory may well still win. Ask a less experienced taker and you are making their task harder.
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