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What is likely to go well?
Luton Town haven’t invested heavily in their squad following promotion (more on that later), but the togetherness in the squad and behind the scenes at the club is something to behold. They will aim to replicate the first-season success of Sheffield United, relying upon a consistency of selection and exposing the subconscious complacency of opposition teams. And here’s a fun fact: none of the last four Premier League debutants have been relegated after their first campaign.
The home form is clearly going to be key, particularly given that Luton only won 10 of their 23 home games in the Championship last year. Kenilworth Road has had a summer makeover, but it will remain an unfamiliar place for elite Premier League players and Luton can take advantage of that.
But generally, what is the point in not enjoying this experience? Luton never expected to be here a decade (or even five years) ago. Nobody wants to acquiesce to relegation, but if it should occur they believe that the revenue gained safeguards their long-term future. That’s a very pleasant feeling in these parts.
What is going to be a challenge?
It would be deeply unfair to describe Luton’s promotion as accidental, because they got here fully on merit, but it certainly came ahead of schedule and presented a structural challenge. Kenilworth Road will meet the demands of the top flight, but Luton are not prepared to risk financial insecurity with over-the-top investment on the playing staff.
That clearly provokes some concern. Very few in this squad have successful top-flight experience. If the season starts slowly (and Luton have only one home game before 23 September), it could become a chastening experience.
As for most promoted clubs, scoring goals is likely to be the biggest issue. With 57, Luton were the lowest scorers in the Championship’s top six last season and won 12 league matches by a single goal. They won only three of their 16 matches against the top nine clubs in the division last season but were ruthless against the Championship’s bottom eight. How is that going to stack up after promotion?
How has the transfer window gone so far?
Although Luton were never going to chase big names who would expect bigger wages, they have recruited a crop of players who would be pivotal in any attempt to get back at the first time of asking should they be relegated.
Mads Andersen was one of the best young central defenders in the EFL, Tahith Chong is a gamble worth taking at £5m, Ryan Giles is a young full-back from Wolves and Marvelous Nakamba’s loan has been made permanent. Perhaps the most interesting signing is Issa Kabore on loan from Manchester City. Kabore, a defender, was close to joining Nottingham Forest on a permanent deal last summer.
Key player
Given our concerns about scoring goals, it has to be Carlton Morris. Morris was Luton’s record transfer before this summer, joining for £2m from Barnsley. He is a target-man striker who can hold up the ball but also roll defenders and run at goal, and is a mighty useful weapon at attacking set pieces.
Before last year, Morris had never scored more than eight goals in a league season (and that was for Hamilton in the Scottish Premiership). Then he became the first Luton player to score 20 league goals in the top two tiers since Phil Gray in 1992-93. This extended purple match simply must continue if Luton are to stay up.
The manager
Rob Edwards is the personification of this incredible promotion. At the beginning of last season, Edwards was manager of Luton’s greatest rivals Watford. Sacked seven weeks into the new season, Edwards got the Luton job when Nathan Jones was poached by Southampton (and you know how that went).
Not only was Edwards able to continue Jones’ fine work and make good on the coaching potential we saw at Forest Green Rovers, he also kept his head amid the mania of the playoffs to succeed where Jones had fallen short. The first weekend of the season will complete one of the weirdest years of any English manager in recent history.
Prediction
They won’t finish bottom, but they also won’t get 35 points. Sorry. 19th
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