England vs Australia: Nobody thinks the Lionesses will win the World Cup semi-final – why not?

SYDNEY – It is an old enemy with an entirely new feel.

On Wednesday, England face two familiar nemeses: an Australian nation bent on “not losing to the Poms”, and avoiding heartache in a World Cup semi-final.

They are the perennial bridesmaids. Neither Mark Sampson nor Phil Neville could get them over the line in 2015 and 2019 respectively, but in Sarina Wiegman they boast the most accomplished tournament manager in the current game.

At that point, the fighting talk becomes irrelevant. The back pages look like they have been recycled from an Ashes tour and goalkeeper Mackenzie Arnold fired an early warning shot when she declared “a lot of England fans might want to see them knock us out, but I think more Australians would like to see us knock them out”. But the general feel in both camps is that this is a rivalry which has not quite infiltrated the football world just yet.

Australia are riding high, not only on the relish of playing England, but also from a historic penalty shootout against France which catapulted them into the imagination of a nation. As much as they will lean on their 75,000 fans – some have been using a cheat code leaked online to buy tickets in the England section too – the challenge is to outsmart the European champions on the pitch, not just out-sing them off it.

Head coach Tony Gustavsson said that the fans’ support was “the one thing we have that they don’t have”. At the same time, he is also planning a well-executed takedown of the country everyone wants to beat. If you believe his hints, he knows exactly how to cut off England’s lifeblood, as his side did so successfully when they beat them 2-0 in an April friendly. They remain the only team in the world to have overcome Wiegman’s England machine.

Though Sam Kerr terrorised Leah Williamson and Esme Morgan at centre-back that night, the real key was nullifying Keira Walsh. Gustavsson said Australia intend to target two players again; who that is depends on whether England stick with the 3-5-2 system or revert to their 4-3-3.

“I think they have evolved and adjusted their game plan a little bit so they are not just possession based – especially if they play with a back-three and two No 9s that are willing to run in behind,” he said.

“We can see that they play much more direct. It will be an interesting tactical game in that sense, because are England going to stay true to their possession game or are they going to take away our transition game by playing a different style of football then they normally do and just adjusting in that sense?

“We are prepped for both, we are prepped for both systems… We have also played with three different systems in this World Cup, so we might be flexible and do something different as well.

“There are some players, no matter what system they play, that have the very same tendencies and when we played them last time, we managed to target specifically two of those players and benefitted from that tactically. So, we looked into those nuances and those individual behaviours a little bit more now instead of the system – and we hope that we can target that tomorrow as well.”

The Swede was keen to paint this as David versus Goliath. The reality is a little more complex; few think this will be a cruise for the Lionesses, even as he pointed out that their funding dwarfs that of all Australia’s teams, men’s, women’s and age group, put together.

Gustavsson’s presence is another secret weapon, as one of a tiny proportion of coaches who knows how to beat Wiegman. Her only defeat in a major international tournament came in the 2019 World Cup final, when she was in charge of the Netherlands and he was USA assistant.

It feels as though the stars have aligned for this encounter. For Australia, it is a unique time and there is a sense that they are on the cusp of their own “Euros moment”. They want the momentum – and crucially the money – England earned a year ago by winning a major tournament.

With that comes serious pressure. They have never played in a World Cup semi-final; England have, and they have always lost them, but the European Championship win at Wembley has helped them get over that psychological hurdle.

Aside from China, they have still not delivered a statement win at this World Cup. Nevertheless they have always found a way. They coped with Colombia’s physicality, Haiti’s counters, and Denmark’s switches in approach.

That is what makes it so remarkable that many do not fancy their chances. There are 10 Matildas who play in the WSL and England know each of them well; despite the Australian fondness for the idiom they won’t be calling anyone “mate” come kick-off.

The Lionesses will be thrown into a pit of noise and hostility but the same was said before the Colombia tie. England revelled in it; Lucy Bronze was up for every ball.

There is a danger that playing with Bronze and Rachel Daly as wing-backs in front of a back three could leave England exposed against the pace of Hayley Raso and Caitlin Foord.

On the other hand, that formation could allow Millie Bright, Jess Carter and Alex Greenwood to thrive once again, forming a three-woman wall to keep out Kerr. Bright has personal demons to fend off, shown a red card as England’s World Cup hopes came crashing down in the semis four years ago.

Bright, Bronze, Georgia Stanway, Alex Greenwood, Mary Earps and Rachel Daly were all in the squad that day. There is one more victory Australia are clinging to, a 4-3 victory over Team GB side featuring several Lionesses at the Tokyo Olympics.

The question is whether an emotionally drained Australia have enough left in the tank. The spectre of Jonny Wilkinson at Stadium Australia 20 years ago and countless Ashes spats are the talk of the build-up but they will be forgotten once the battle begins.

Now is the time to prove, for the first occasion of its kind under Wiegman, that England can triumph away from home in a pivotal, knockout match, with everything on the line.



from Football - inews.co.uk https://ift.tt/UkZO7JG

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