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What is likely to go well?
For all the travails of their last domestic season, West Ham United were at least reliable at home against the weaker teams in the division: six wins from seven against the bottom eight. With that same cluster of clubs likely to be weaker than last season, a repeat is perfectly achievable.
West Ham are also fairly efficient chance creators. Only eight teams took more shots in the league last season. If Lucas Paqueta can roam forward and West Ham can get Jarrod Bowen more involved – perhaps in a more central role – then we can expect those numbers to continue (although there are doubts about the efficiency of the finishing).
Finally, David Moyes’ teams are typically excellent at grinding out wins. They held a one-goal lead in only 17 matches last season, fewer than Leicester City and the same number as Leeds United, both of whom went down. West Ham won 11 of those games; that was the difference between Championship and Premier League. Can you tell that we’re not exactly giving them the big sell?
What is going to be a challenge?
West Ham lost their captain, who was also their best player, and at the time of writing are the only Premier League club not to make a single signing. Given his development over the last three years, it will take two players to replace Declan Rice’s contribution to defence and attack. Currently, West Ham’s only two defensively-minded central midfielders are Tomas Soucek and Flynn Downes.
Last season, goalscoring was a huge problem and the worries have hardly been eased. Gianluca Scamacca has gone back to Italy (Premier League clubs really need to stop spending big money on Serie A strik… oh, as you were, Manchester United), Michail Antonio turns 34 during this season and there are doubts about Danny Ings’ availability over the length of a season.
These issues are going to be exacerbated by Europa League football. West Ham breezed through their Conference League group; the same may not be true this season even with top seeding ahead of the draw. That itself is made harder by the average age of the squad. West Ham gave starts to nine players aged 30 or over last season. The only two players aged under 25 to start 10 or more league games? Rice and Scamacca – both gone.
And then there’s the general feeling of listlessness, abetted by the transfer inaction. With Rice’s departure, so ended an era and that requires new energy. Instead, West Ham have dithered and therefore plonked themselves in a purgatory that pleases nobody and fritters away the goodwill of a European trophy.
How has the transfer window gone so far?
It hasn’t. The sale of Rice, while a desperate shame, was managed very well. West Ham held out for a British transfer record fee and Arsenal, spooked a little by Manchester City interest, eventually paid up. West Ham’s decision-makers deserve credit for that work.
But now they really do need to better prepare this squad for another European campaign and Premier League season without Rice. The problem appears to be a breakdown in communication between different stakeholders that has led to transfer loggerheads.
Moyes has a profile of player he would like (think James Ward-Prowse, Harry Maguire and Scott McTominay), but West Ham appointed Belgian Tim Steidten as the club’s technical director and he clearly has different ideas. Having a structure is one thing, but not if the processes and relationships within it make efficient recruitment more difficult.
Key player
The honest answer here is whichever midfielder West Ham eventually sign to replace Rice, whether that be Ward-Prowse, Edson Alvarez or someone else. But, for now, the question that defines West Ham’s season is how Paqueta reacts to Rice’s departure.
It takes a small leap of faith, but there’s every chance that Paqueta might be released by taking on greater responsibility. It took several months for Moyes and West Ham to work out Paqueta’s best position, but a roaming free role in which he starts deeper but surges forward could make him one of the best progressive passers in the country. Which would be nice.
The manager
West Ham could hardly ask Moyes to pack up his things into a box after those videos of him dancing with the players in Prague, but there is a clear argument that, with Rice leaving, this was the summer to make a grab for their new future. For all the joy of that run in Europe, West Ham lost 20 league games last season and took 40 points. The Europa Conference League saved Moyes’ job when supporters were getting restless.
And now, because of the transfer inaction, Moyes is reportedly disillusioned with the club. Prague would have been a glorious send-off; Moyes is going to have to overachieve again to ensure that it doesn’t end with a whimper.
Prediction
We have them safely in midtable, but that is based on them actually improving the squad over the next three weeks. 11th.
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