December 2015 was a simpler time. Pre-Brexit vote, pre-Trump presidency, pre-Covid. And Pep Guardiola was yet to arrive in the Premier League to complete Manchester City’s transformation into an all-conquering European superclub.
That month was also the last time that Arsenal beat City in a top-flight match, Theo Walcott and Olivier Giroud earning a 2-1 win on their way to finishing second in Leicester City’s annus mirabilis.
Since then they have faced City on 15 occasions in the English top flight. They have taken just two points and lost by an aggregate score of 39-10.
Under Guardiola protege Mikel Arteta, Arsenal have become competitive again, yet the master still beat his apprentice home and away last season. As they prepare to meet for the first time this term in London tomorrow, has a summer of change at both clubs brought them any closer?
YES
Arsenal are stronger
As good as Arsenal were last season, they became tactically predictable and heavily reliant on a favoured XI. Arteta’s squad is better this year, with more depth in all positions affording him more scope to rotate players and vary his approach.
The biggest upgrade has been record signing Declan Rice, a captain in waiting whose athleticism and anticipation have removed the Gunners’ reliance on Thomas Partey.
In the Community Shield in August, he showed rival suitors City what they missed out on and could have a key role to play tomorrow, with the visitors’ midfield shorn of key figures.
City are weaker
While Arsenal have strengthened, City appear to have gone the other way. Mateo Kovacic has been an inadequate replacement for the guile and goals of Ilkay Gundogan, a key Guardiola lieutenant and serial match-winner.
Jeremy Doku is yet to match Riyad Mahrez’s productivity, while even Erling Haaland has been quieter – he has eight goals so far, compared with 17 at this stage last season. An exception has been Julian Alvarez, who improves with each game.
Injuries to Kevin De Bruyne and John Stones and the suspension of Rodri hit City hard and magnified the cracks in Guardiola’s squad.
NO
The stats don’t lie
After seven games last year, Arsenal were top with 18 points, one more than City. This time it is the other way round, and the champions have both scored more and conceded fewer. If anything, this suggests the gap has widened.
A more sophisticated analysis, based on comparison with the exact same fixtures last term, also has Arsenal one point down this time, having won at Everton but failed to beat Fulham and Tottenham at home.
City’s surprise defeat at Wolves last weekend means they are also underperforming in relative terms, but the fact they have played promoted Burnley and Sheffield United makes parallels – and conclusions – harder to draw.
Pep’s a step ahead
Unsurprisingly, Arteta has borrowed heavily from his old mentor’s playbook, but Pep is always one step ahead of the pack, whether asking defenders to make an extra man in midfield or reviving the old-fashioned No 9.
The Catalan has also adapted better than his former pupil when their sides have met, with City notably going more direct than usual in order to beat Arsenal’s press last season.
Arteta’s tactical experimentation in the Community Shield and since then suggests that he is ready to step out of Guardiola’s shadow but he still needs a defining result to prove it.
MAYBE
Now or never
Arteta has ended Arsenal’s inferiority complex against Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United, but he has been unable to break City’s stranglehold on them, which now stands at 12 consecutive Premier League defeats.
There have been signs of improvement – deservedly leading a January 2021 home game before having Gabriel sent off and losing 2-1; and the Community Shield draw, which they then won on penalties – but this remains an utterly one-sided rivalry.
Are Arsenal any closer to catching City? The jury may be out on that for some time yet, but the absence of De Bruyne and Rodri, and notwithstanding their own injury concerns, means they may not get a better chance to give them a bloody nose.
from Football - inews.co.uk https://ift.tt/ajhxHig
Post a Comment