We are eight games into the 2023-24 Premier League season, which means it is high time to make wildly speculative predictions about what’ll happen over the next seven months.
According to Sky Sports commentator Peter Drury, Arsenal’s 1-0 win over Manchester City has “blown the title race wide open”, but is this true?
Here’s i‘s analysis of the current top four and their chances of securing the trophy come May.
Tottenham
Fire up the air raid sirens and get underground, Tottenham Hotspur will be top of the Premier League for at least the next two weeks.
They’re an eminently entertaining side managed by the avuncular, agonisingly likeable Ange Postecoglou, a man who “says it like it is” without that being a poorly-veiled excuse for bigotry. They have a genuinely exciting squad synthesising young talent with elite players even rival fans have soft spots for.
With no European or League Cup football, they play at least five fewer games than Arsenal and Liverpool, and potentially six fewer than Club World Cup-bound Manchester City, before the end of 2023. They have a very good chance of still being near the top of the table by the season’s end.
All of these statements are true, yet Spurs are also a long way from proving they can sustain a genuine title challenge. They may be unbeaten having played two of the current top four, but they’ve also played all of the bottom four. It’s all the teams in between that truly test a side’s capability.
But perhaps the most crucial point is that Spurs have proven they’re no longer the supine victims Antonio Conte told them they were, with two extra-time victories and a point at the Emirates. There will likely be a reversion to the mean in time, yet that mean may now be much greater than it once was.
Title contender rating: 2/5
Arsenal
Mikel Arteta appears to have listened to calls to stop Arsenal’s attempts at reinvention and has worked to improve last season’s defensive leaking. The Gunners have now kept five clean sheets in seven games, aided by Gabriel’s return to the starting line-up. If defence wins titles, they’re on the right track.
Yet their potential Premier League hopes still depend disproportionately on Bukayo Saka, Declan Rice and William Saliba, two of which have pulled out of international duty due to injury. It’s not novel to suggest their Champions League return could have negative side-effects, but they’re already feeling the increased burden of European nights.
With seven games in the month between this international break and the next, that load is not going to lighten, and they then play 10 games in 35 days between 25 November and 30 December. If any of Rice, Saka or Saliba were to pick up any serious injury, then collapse could come thick and fast.
But if they can stay fit, then still-unbeaten Arsenal showed against City they have as good a chance of anyone of taking the title. Arteta’s tenure so far has been characterised by constant improvement. After reaching second last season, there’s only one place to go.
Title contender rating: 4/5
Man City
In third, two points off top spot after three losses in four games – you get the feeling this is as bad as it’s going to get for Manchester City. Pep Guardiola’s side have been perhaps unsurprisingly sub-par since their most important player was suspended for three games, but there’s no rot setting in here.
Now Rodri has returned, business can continue as usual. City have learned a hard lesson about how dependent they are on the Spaniard, yet they’ll probably consider that a useful step forward. Now they know their weakness, they can work harder to annihilate it.
While Rodri’s absence also highlighted that Rico Lewis is now a legitimate option in their slightly threadbare midfield. With Kevin de Bruyne ruled out until 2024, they need all the reinforcements they can find.
Some will point to their four shots against Arsenal, the lowest from a Guardiola side since 2010, and diagnose an attacking issue. Yet this is still the side that managed 15 shots on target against West Ham three weeks ago. They are still the reigning Treble winners. They still have the league’s joint-best defence. More than likely, they are still going to win the title.
Title contender rating: 5/5
Liverpool
When you embrace chaos, as Liverpool have chosen to this season, sometimes chaos is going to bite you on the backside. For every 93rd-minute winner against Newcastle, there’s a nine-man, 96th-minute loss to Spurs.
Jurgen Klopp’s side have now conceded first in five of their last seven league games and kept just two clean sheets all season, yet their reinvigorated attack leaves them just three points from the summit.
Liverpool 2.0 are still heavily over-reliant on Mohamed Salah, but considering he hasn’t missed a club game due to injury since October 2019, there are worse players to rely on. Yet further back, as Alexis Mac Allister showed against Brighton, their new-look midfield is still brittle and seriously lacking depth. Their defence requires a similar reboot to the rest of the side.
Surely over the course of a season, attempting to embrace chaos won’t create a sustainable title charge. It will be fun to watch, though.
Title contender rating: 2/5
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