Big, difficult decisions are coming for Newcastle United – sooner or later.
After two years on an upward trajectory, Newcastle’s hierarchy always anticipated phase two of the club’s transformation would be more complicated. It was over a year ago that Dan Ashworth told reporters that reinvesting in the squad at the rate they were was “unsustainable” and player trading would be necessary. That point seems to have arrived.
With the club driven by the need to continue dipping inside the Premier League’s stringent Profit and Sustainability regulations they know player sales are required to create headroom for further squad building. Comments by CEO Darren Eales last week signposted the club’s Financial Fair Play (FFP) predicament.
Put simply: if they don’t sell, they can’t buy. January’s reticence to meet Manchester City’s demands for a loan for Eddie Howe’s No 1 target Kalvin Phillips are proof of that – with the England man now likely to go elsewhere. West Ham began negotiations on Friday with Newcastle unwilling to pay the sizeable fee demanded by City.
Are any outgoings likely this month?
Friday morning brought news from Germany of interest from Bayern Munich in Newcastle’s influential vice-captain Kieran Trippier.
i understands the 33-year-old is on Thomas Tuchel’s wish list as the German champions look to add a right-back, although no formal bid has been tabled with Newcastle yet.
It would be a tough decision for Newcastle: Trippier is seen as a leader and lieutenant in the dressing room, a player of utmost importance to Howe who drives standards at the club. The manager would petition to keep him.
But he is also one of the top earners at Newcastle and they have a ready-made replacement in the excellent Tino Livramento. If Bayern do table an offer sizeable enough to make Newcastle think again, it is likely to come down to Trippier’s own preference and whether he fancies one last adventure alongside England teammate Harry Kane.
Bruno Guimaraes has interest from Liverpool, Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain, although sources have indicated a January move, with its huge potential outlay, is unlikely. And, as reported by i last week, Newcastle would instantly reject any club trying to negotiate below the terms of his release clause, which is understood to be £100m, although the structure of it is not as straightforward as a bid instantly triggering negotiations.
Besiktas have been linked with a move for Jamaal Lascelles but despite only having another six months on his contract Newcastle are unlikely to let him go. He ticks plenty of boxes for a reliable squad player and the club are keen to keep him.
Joelinton is in negotiations over a new long-term contract, but with only 18 months left on his deal, he could become vulnerable to a sale if no agreement is met.
Sources suggested there was a degree of calmness around the situation, with months to bridge the sizeable gap between the two parties. He is unlikely to play again this season due to a hamstring injury.
Names of a raft of fringe players are also being circulated around clubs. Javier Manquillo is set to join former boss Rafa Benitez at Celta Vigo while Newcastle would listen to offers for Emil Krafth and Matt Ritchie.
Why would they sell?
The Phillips loan scenario sums up the dilemma. A deal that seemed to make sense for the club – and would have armed Howe with a player with experience of competing in the biggest games – has been torpedoed by the strain on Newcastle’s finances caused by FFP.
Inside the club they want to be dynamic and recognise that smart recruitment – and doing good transfer deals – is a part of that. There is a recognition that the squad is unbalanced in areas and needs improvement with an ongoing review of the injury and performance issues that undermined their Champions League campaign.
One Newcastle source suggested there may be a need for ruthlessness in the summer market in particular and Howe hinted at that in December, after a defeat to Nottingham Forest, when he said that previous performances were no guarantee of a place in his team.
Would they reinvest now?
The suggestion from the club is that if players want to move on, they can move this month, even if they don’t think January offers particularly good value. Newcastle insiders are adamant this season’s Premier League campaign hasn’t been written off, even if a gap has opened up to the Champions League places. In an ideal world they want to make signings to aid Howe.
The recent scouting mission to Atalanta to watch exciting Brazilian midfielder Ederson – who replicates many of the attributes of Guimaraes and Joelinton – illustrates the club are planning for the future. Insiders say “exciting” targets are being looked at.
No-one at Newcastle is in the mood for guaranteeing incomings and big, game-changing additions won’t happen without sales. It is unthinkable that they would end the January window weaker than before.
What does all this mean for the future?
Phase two of the Newcastle blueprint was always going to be the toughest and uncertainty around their best players is an unfamiliar feeling under the ownership of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund.
Having soared ahead of schedule, this season has been sobering for Newcastle and the prospect of losing Guimaraes, Sven Botman or Alexander Isak – the club’s crown jewels – is especially unsettling.
The wisdom of effectively announcing an intention to trade at some point in the future remains to be seen: does it drain some enthusiasm for the project from players with ambitions of playing in the Champions League every season?
But Newcastle say this was always going to have to happen, and every club has to sell players at some point. The key is getting the big decisions right – and they believe they’ve got a pretty good hitrate on that so far, tapping into what the club needs and spending their resources well. Any sales will be done for the benefit of the club and with the aim of fast-tracking their plan to be a sustainable, top six club challenging for honours.
As one senior source told i: “This is a long-term plan and they will get it right. They knew about all of this before they took the club over. The ambition is still sky high.”
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