It’s quiet. The well-travelled piece of tumbleweed, shockingly snubbed for an Oscar once again, rolls across the shot. A faded newspaper cutting from last year blows into view, reminding us of Enzo Fernandez’s £106.8m Chelsea move, before a silhouetted “Wanted” poster reading “Cheap, Experienced Striker” is captured pinned to the saloon’s wooden exterior.
As you enter, whispers of “PSR” grow from huddled groups before the camera zooms in on Eddie Howe, closing his eyes as he blindly picks out a Newcastle United player from the squad photo in front of him. He hasn’t noticed Kieran Trippier reading a telegram from Harry Kane in the other corner.
From Trippier it pans across the near-deserted bar that is normally packed this time of year. There’s Kalvin Phillips, sitting on a bench beside David Moyes, who has just won the brawl, before the camera lands on Daniel Levy. “Huh,” he says, with a chuckle, swirling his drink. “Would you look at that?”
Truly, this town ain’t like it used to be.
What once felt like the Wild West is now a barren land firmly dictated by law and order. A few months on from a record transfer window, and just a year on from Chelsea making the league’s most expensive signing at the time, as it stands Tottenham Hotspur are the only Premier League club to have spent more than £10m on a player – £26.7m for Radu Dragusin.
In all, at the time of writing 11 teams are yet to make a significant signing, while across the board there have been just four permanent transfers – one, Tom Holmes to Luton, involved him returning to Reading on loan – and four more loan signings.
Transfer windows may never be the same again, and while there is one obvious factor – the charges for both Everton and Nottingham Forest for allegedly breaking the Premier League’s profit and sustainability (PSR) rules – there is more at play.
“January is always a quieter window, but that has been exacerbated, firstly by FFP, or PSR in the Premier League,” sport finance expert Dr Dan Plumley tells i.
“Clubs are playing their cards closer to their chest with what is happening to Everton, what could happen to them again, and to Nottingham Forest as well.
“The other focus is at the bottom of the league, where the promoted clubs are relatively weaker in terms of their squads than perhaps others have been in the past. It is no surprise to see them struggling.
“So clubs are weighing that up. Those are two factors that don’t always happen every year.”
Significant Premier League signings
Not including academy purchases or loan recalls, there have been just four loans and three permanent signings by Premier League clubs in January so far.
Brentford
- Sergio Reguilon – Tottenham, loan
Brighton
- Valentin Barco – Boca Juniors, undisclosed
Burnley
- David Datro Fofana – Chelsea, loan
Luton
- Tom Holmes – Reading, undisclosed (back out on loan to Reading)
Sheffield United
- Ben Brereton Diaz – Villarreal, loan
Tottenham
- Timo Werner – RB Leipzig, loan
- Radu Dragusin – Genoa, £26.7m
The point around the relegation-threatened clubs is pertinent. The mid-season window is the opportunity to make changes deemed necessary to boost one’s position, but here we have a rarity.
The promoted trio of Burnley, Luton and Sheffield United currently occupy the bottom there, and not since 1997-98 have the teams who came up gone straight back down (Barnsley, Bolton and Crystal Palace).
Finances were already tight at Sheffield United when they came up, while Luton were the Premier League’s lowest spenders in the summer, meaning there was no repeat of Forest’s outlay that has since landed them in trouble.
And so despite their precarious positions the bottom three have opted against gambling big in January. In turn, the teams above them have followed suit.
That’s no surprise, though, with Forest and Everton 16th and 17th respectively, while those 15th and higher have not felt pressured into spending with the threat of relegation minimal – a threat diminished further by the prospect of points deductions for Everton and Forest. That would surely make for a five-way scrap that can allow Crystal Palace and Brentford to rest easy till the summer.
“The gap between the Premier League and Championship is huge, and it forces clubs into making a decision,” Dr Plumley adds. “If you’re a Burnley, Luton or Sheffield United, do you risk it all and throw money at the transfer market?
“It takes a brave club to chuck all the money from Premier League broadcasting into the transfer market, because you can do that and still get relegated, and that’s really problematic.
“Based on the current broadcasting deal, you’re going to lose £60m by getting relegated. If you think you’re at risk of getting relegated and spend £30m in the January window to stay up, you can say that’s £30m saved, but if you don’t need to spend that money, you’re better off to the tune of £60m. It’s risk and reward, a balance, and clubs will look at other clubs in the mix and back themselves to do better.”
Such figures are evidently not going to be spent in this window, especially as we all hold our breath on Everton and Forest – decisions that could yet spare two of the seemingly-doomed promoted teams.
Toney and Ferguson don’t need to be sold
This is not just a dry January at the bottom end of the Premier League table. As you delve a little deeper, club by club, it is clear to see why 14 clubs are yet to make a signing.
Everton and Nottingham Forest are among that 14, and while they are the only two facing charges for alleged financial breaches, other clubs are wary.
Chelsea are being investigated, and having voted to close the amortisation “loophole” that had helped them sign players including Fernandez and Mykhailo Mudryk (spreading the cost across their long-term contracts), they cannot continue spending as they did during Todd Boehly’s first year as co-owner.
“Chelsea’s strategy was high risk. It hasn’t worked in the immediate, but the club have suggested they won’t go big in this window,” Dr Plumley says.
“Interestingly they are looking to shift homegrown talent, because that is booked for pure profit against FFP, like they did with Mason Mount. Hence why Conor Gallagher is a potential out. They’re behind where they want to be, but I wouldn’t expect them to do much in this last week. Maybe a quieter summer as well because the bigger picture of FFP and the league’s sanctions, you can’t keep doing that year on year.”
Elsewhere, a date has also been set for Manchester City’s hearing, while constraints have Arsenal, Aston Villa and West Ham among the clubs who must sell to buy.
Newcastle, meanwhile, look as though they simply have to sell, with several first-team stars linked with moves away from the richest football club in the world.
It is fascinating and boring in equal measure. The inaction has bench-warmers making the headlines, with Phillips set to move to West Ham on loan and Chelsea somehow putting a £50m price tag on Armando Broja.
The fascination also comes from the contrast. We will come nowhere near Premier League clubs’ record £815m January spend last year, and at this rate, even the lowly figure of £70m – spent in the 2021 mid-pandemic January transfer window – is unlikely to be surpassed. It looks to be the quietest window for 14 years, when £30m was spent in January 2010.
All the while, the clubs with the most-wanted players are not desperately looking to sell. Brentford look to be in a comfortable position with money for David Raya on the way this summer, meaning they have named their asking price for Ivan Toney and stuck to it. No negotiation, no wavering. No need. Arsenal and Chelsea cannot afford the £80m Brentford want.
Over at Brighton, Evan Ferguson has been priced at £100m amid interest from Chelsea, Manchester City and Manchester United, and with the Seagulls’ net spend of late firmly in the green – thanks, mainly, to Chelsea – they have not buckled either.
It has led to stalemates and attempts being delayed until the summer, by which point Everton’s appeal – and the subsequent outcome of their second sanction, and Forest’s first – will have been heard.
In short, by June we will know the punishments for going over the PSR threshold. The precedent will have been set.
A new normal? That’s on Saudi Arabia
Whether this is the new norm or an anomaly remains unclear, but it appears the future of Premier League spending is likely to be tied with its fellow goliath, the Saudi Pro League.
The Saudis spent £701.3m in the summer, below the Premier League’s record £2.36bn but more than the remaining “big five” European leagues of France, Germany, Italy and Spain.
The Premier League alone received £250m in fees from the Saudi Pro League, helping fuel a transfer window that saw both Arsenal and Chelsea spend £100m-plus on one player, while Aston Villa, Brentford, Brighton, Burnley and Luton all made club-record signings.
“You go through stages,” Dr Plumley adds. “This can’t keep going on, but in football it often does. The Saudi Pro League was a factor last summer, but given the FFP issues and the Premier League showing their teeth on regulations, I get the sense we are heading towards a quieter year or two while that settles down and plays out.
“Never say never with football, as I was proved wrong last summer.”
The Saudi Pro League therefore holds the keys for this summer as well, but this time there is added uncertainty.
Jordan Henderson has left, and amid reports Karim Benzema and Roberto Firmino are unhappy in Saudi Arabia, whether the gulf nation can continue to spend freely, improve the league and build the brand looks more doubtful than it did last summer.
Clubs in Europe will, however, try to do business in Saudi. Manchester United’s football director John Murtough is believed to have flown there in December to talk transfers. Recouping £100m for Antony and Jadon Sancho has made the gossip columns of late, likewise shifting Casemiro for a fee no European side is likely to pay.
In this sense, the Premier League and Saudi Pro League are bound together.
“Some figures were over the odds, and if someone’s going to give you that money it’s almost too good to turn down,” Dr Plumley says.
“We saw that last year. Does it really hurt the Premier League? It almost helps them, because if you’re going to get £100m you weren’t expecting, that money will then move around Europe. It actually strengthened the Premier League, and other leagues in Europe, as some of those players were more towards the end of their careers."
And as for this final week of the January window, which actually closes on 1 February?
“We’ll get a bit of movement, but it won’t be huge," Dr Plumley says. "As you get closer to that deadline, it does tend to hot up, and there might be some desperation.
“We’ll rightly point to Everton and Forest, the first time we’ve seen a points deduction for PSR in the case of Everton, and the minute you send out that warning shot, it’s bound to put other clubs on alert, because we know there are other clubs perhaps running tight to those negotiations.
"This is not just one or two clubs reigning it in, everybody is in the same boat. "
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