Newcastle United could yet be the busiest club in the final week of a flat January transfer window – but they are waiting for dominoes to fall in the transfer window before making big moves.
“Spinning plates” was how one insider described it to i over the weekend, as speculation mounted on the future of Kieran Trippier, Callum Wilson and then winger Miguel Almiron.
The problem for Newcastle is in plain sight: after substantial outlays in successive transfer windows they are close to the £105m rolling loss over three years that they are permitted under the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules (PSR). In short: any significant incomings this month would require sales.
Sources at St James’ Park say the problem is not funds – their ownership have injected more than £100m of equity into the club to fund player acquisitions and substantial and required infrastructure improvements – but not breaching the Financial Fair Play limits.
The message coming back this month is clear and consistent: if they can unlock some “headroom” they can attempt to do deals.
How much money would sales free up?
If Newcastle were low on liquidity it would be a simple equation: sell a player for £20m and then use that money to buy someone of equivalent value.
But in the world of PSR the situation is more complex, which is why selling fringe players like Javier Manquillo, Matt Ritchie and Emil Krafth won’t really help Newcastle this month.
Football finance expert Kieran Maguire has told i that selling Almiron for £20m – and he has suitors in the Saudi Pro League – would give them around £16m in FFP headroom. That is because “profit is sales price less the book value of the player”.
For PSR purposes, player value decreases over the course of their contract in a process known as amortisation. Had they sold Trippier – who now appears to be staying at the club after Bayern Munich withdrew their interest – it would have afforded less wiggle room than Almiron, which perhaps explains why the club have been more open to his sale, even if he is a first team regular.
What would that enable you to buy?
In the world of £100m-rated midfielders, £16m does not sound like much. But as Newcastle look to balance their need to stay within PSR limits and the requirement to recruit it actually unlocks huge possibilities for the club.
It would enable them to make a realistic move for any of their three midfield targets: Amadou Onana at Everton, Morgan Gibbs-White at Nottingham Forest or Atalanta’s Ederson.
Why? Because, as Maguire confirms, if Onana is valued at £60m by Newcastle and they offer him a five-year deal, it would go on the books as £12m for PSR purposes. Depending on the deal they are able to strike, an Almiron sale would theoretically give Newcastle around £60-80m to play with.
We saw in the summer that one decent sale – Allan Saint-Maximin departed for Al-Ahli for around £23m – allowed Newcastle to sign Tino Livramento and Harvey Barnes for a combined price of around £70m.
It may not be quite as simple as this – Almiron has a sell-on clause which is reported to be around 20 per cent – but you can see why Newcastle are at least entertaining offers.
Would summer be better for balancing books?
It is the dilemma Newcastle’s hierarchy are wrestling with. Howe needs a midfielder now – especially with Joelinton undergoing surgery this week and likely out for the rest of the season – but prices and time will be on their side in the close season.
Sources believe a major rebuild is on the cards in the summer and Newcastle will have more spending power with Champions League and commercial revenue improved.
But if they do trade one of the club’s crown jewels then brace yourself for some major incomings. Maguire estimates that if Bruno Guimaraes departs for the £100m release clause in his contract, it unlocks £80m of FFP headroom. While losing the Brazil international feels unthinkable, it would give Newcastle huge scope to strengthen in every area of their squad.
What does Eddie Howe have to say?
Newcastle’s free weekend means Howe hasn’t spoken since the Manchester City defeat almost a fortnight ago. Then he was downbeat about the chances of incomings but since then some of his key men have been linked with moves away.
i understands Newcastle are still working hard on potential deals and the presence of Yasir Al-Rumayyan, the club’s chairman, in the UK this week hints at the club gearing up for a big final week in the window.
Howe speaks on Friday morning to preview the Fulham game and is usually reticent to give much away. It will be interesting to see how he tackles these questions with so much going on behind the scenes.
from Football - inews.co.uk https://ift.tt/pYWxC59
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