BLANKENHAIN — The greatest trick of Gareth Southgate’s shift in formation for England’s Euro 2024 quarter-final against Switzerland is that he brought freshness and impetus whilst avoiding making bold changes in personnel. Ezri Konsa for Marc Guehi – an enforced replacement – was the only change; Kieran Trippier, Bukayo Saka, Kyle Walker, John Stones, Phil Foden and Jude Bellingham all moved positions or role.
Southgate made that tactical tweak in part to try and improve fluidity in midfield, but also because it matched Switzerland’s shape. Murat Yakin spoke after his team’s victory over Italy and crowed that he knew they would “destroy Italy” if they used a back four. In the mania of another comeback and penalties victory, it should be noted that England largely nullified their opponents in a way that Italy couldn’t.
The Netherlands have used a 4-2-3-1 during this summer’s European Championship. The full-backs are lopsided, with Nathan Ake on the left and Denzel Dumfries offering width and attacking intent on the right. Ronald Koeman then uses two workmanlike central midfielders behind an attacking trio that includes Player of the Tournament candidate Cody Gakpo on the left.
Wout Weghorst has been successful in changing games off the bench, so Memphis Depay playing wide right and Weghorst starting is a possibility that England must consider. But it is more likely that Weghorst is used as a situation-dependent substitute with Depay central and Xavi Simons behind him.
England team news
Although Southgate has the option to shift back to a four-man defence to match the Dutch shape, it would be a surprise if he moved away from what made England more fluent against Switzerland.
If Luke Shaw is fit to start, his presence would be crucial in giving England greater balance: see how Shaw twice overlapped and provided crosses in extra-time.
On Monday, Shaw spoke to the media near England’s training camp and declared himself ready to start a competitive match for the first time in four months.
“I think I am [fit and ready to play 90 minutes],” Shaw said.
“That is down to Gareth’s decision. I feel fit and ready to go.
“The plan was to come back around the second or third game but, unfortunately, things didn’t go as planned and I was pushed back a game or so.”
Will England deploy a back three again?
One thing to expect, given the Dutch’s greatest threat, is England to play with three central defenders in possession but then quickly shift to a back four when possession is lost.
Saka is no defender and it makes sense for him to stay high and link or lead counter attacks. Shaw drops into left-back and Walker stays wide to cope with Gakpo. Also expect Declan Rice to drift wide depending on which way the Dutch are building their attack.
If Shaw isn’t picked, it will be Trippier again. That creates the option of using the wing-backs on their natural side (Saka on the left and Trippier right). But given Saka was England’s Man of the Match against Switzerland and he can drift inside and put Ake onto his right foot, it would be a shock if England changed this plan.
The other defensive selection question is who to play as the left-sided central defender.
Here, Southgate is likely to go with this pre-tournament hierarchy. Ezri Konsa performed faultlessly against Switzerland, but his role was as stand-in. Marc Guehi was first choice before the tournament (once Harry Maguire had been ruled out) and will likely retake his place.
A touch of class from Luke Shaw.
— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) July 8, 2024#Euro2024 #BBCEuros pic.twitter.com/wPwGNX3ICJ
The alternative option here is an intriguing one. If Shaw is deemed fit enough to start but Southgate is wary of loading too much on him in a multifunctional wing-back role, Shaw could be the left-sided centre-back with Trippier keeping his place at wing-back.
There have been questions as to whether England might drop their captain and record goalscorer, unthinkable before the tournament (although we have been here before). But Kane would have a role in keeping Virgil van Dijk busy and thus creating space in front of the Dutch centre-backs. The argument for starting Toney over Kane is also dented because it would likely bar Toney from taking a penalty. England will stick with their captain and back him to come good.
England’s predicted line-up to face Netherlands
3-4-2-1: Pickford, Walker, Stones, Guehi; Saka, Rice, Mainoo, Shaw; Foden, Bellingham; Kane.
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