It is the opinion of at least one sporting director in the Premier League that Alexander Isak is so good he’s played himself out of contention for a move anytime soon.
The theory goes that Isak is now such a rare commodity in the world game – a goalscorer in the number nine mould who blends technique with pace, power and an elite mentality – that Newcastle’s valuation will be so high no club could realistically match it.
That is especially true in the era of stringent Profitability and Sustainability Rules (PSR).
An asking price of £150m has been speculated, which would smash the British transfer record. Arsenal are keen and this week has seen links with Liverpool that appear to have some substance.
But in reality Newcastle have not gone down the road of formulating a valuation because, The i Paper understands, there is no intention of selling the man most likely to help them punch their ticket back into the Champions League.
Spanish reports have claimed Isak is a top target for Barcelona too, pitching his valuation, laughably, at £75m.
Yet it is worth noting that Newcastle’s confidence in keeping Isak for at least another season is based not just on a contract that extends into the summer of 2028 but also their own, much improved PSR position.
That will allow them to move into the close season thinking about making big signings rather than contemplating unpalatable, cut-price sales.
The feeling is that if Newcastle can secure Champions League football themselves – and they can boost that position by exploiting Manchester City’s desperate decline in Saturday’s match at the Etihad – that would go a long way to ending the interminable transfer hype around the squad’s crown jewel.
If the club are in Europe’s elite competition and offering him chances to win domestic silverware, is there really any reason for him to go?
The bullishness is also partly because of the relationship Isak has with head coach Eddie Howe, whose coaching and mentoring has facilitated the vast improvement in his game over the last two seasons.
Isak is a confident character behind the scenes but remains acutely aware that he has improvements to make in his game.
It is only a few weeks since Howe said that the Sweden forward can get better – and it’s understood that regular one-on-one meetings with Isak earlier in the season helped him to get over what was considered a slow start to the campaign, by his standards.
Based on this season’s numbers, there’s not far for Isak to go. Football data consultancy firm Analytics FC assesses players by a unique model known as “Goal Difference Added”, which assigns a contribution value to their on-pitch actions.
Isak’s numbers are through the roof: he’s in the top 10 per cent of Premier League strikers across every metric – touches in the box, carrying, key passes and open play attacking headers.
Expected goals from open play, finishing and expected passes are also at “elite level”. And that’s before you get into his strike rate of a goal every 106 minutes of football played.
It is no wonder that Newcastle have aspirations to reopen talks with Isak over a contract extension in the summer. The forward’s current weekly wage is understood to be around the £145,000 mark and a pay bump would be reasonable given his rising stock across European football.
Extending his contract would also make sense from a PSR perspective, stretching his amortised value (£63m) across a longer deal and improving Newcastle’s position.
But there’s a recognition that talks might not be straightforward, and his agents could even push for a release clause that mirrors the one Bruno Guimaraes had in the improved contract he signed nearly a year ago.
Two targets eyed
Perhaps Newcastle’s biggest challenge is to prove to Isak – and others, like Anthony Gordon – that they match their ambition. The i Paper understands the intention is to make significant signings in the summer.
If they can replicate the success of the Isak deal – and the £63m they paid now looks like an astonishing bargain – there should be some optimism on Tyneside.
Newcastle have recently dispatched scouts to watch right winger Johan Bakayoko, PSV Eindhoven’s Belgian winger, who is valued in excess of £40m by the Eredivisie side. And, as revealed by The i Paper last month, they are also keen on Bournemouth defender Illia Zabarnyi.
With increased PSR headroom this close season, those moves are seen as much more realistic than in previous transfer windows.
There is another PR masterstroke that Newcastle could pull off. If they decide not to offer Callum Wilson a new contract – and the striker is effectively playing for his future after returning from injury – there is also the prospect of offering Isak the club’s iconic number nine shirt next season.
He recently told Alan Shearer that he was aware of its significance to supporters, and he is perhaps the closest thing those Newcastle fans have witnessed since he hung up his boots nearly two decades ago.
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