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I thought I was leading on a potentially seismic weekend in the relegation battle, but then Manchester United went and won at Arsenal, whose players looked as broken as supporters by the experience. It’s January, they have a four-point lead and the psychological wobble has absolutely begun.
Manchester City and Aston Villa did their bit to put the pressure on, while Chelsea and United also took steps closer towards Champions League football with others continuing to stumble. And these are the two who just sacked managers.
The bottom is just as fascinating because Nottingham Forest (seven points in three games) and West Ham (six points in two) have woken up. Are Crystal Palace safe? Are Tottenham Hotspur even safe?
Here is one piece of analysis on each of the top flight clubs who played this weekend (in reverse table order)…
This weekend’s results
- West Ham 3-1 Sunderland
- Burnley 2-2 Tottenham
- Fulham 2-1 Brighton
- Man City 2-0 Wolves
- Bournemouth 3-2 Liverpool
- Brentford 0-2 Nottingham Forest
- Crystal Palace 1-3 Chelsea
- Newcastle 0-2 Aston Villa
- Arsenal 2-3 Man Utd
Wolves really have nothing to lose
Wolves performed excellently during the second half against Manchester City and losing 2-0 in this manner hardly needed to prick the better mood amongst supporters. But the game at the Etihad did raise an interesting question: should Wolves attack more?
The West Ham game at Molineux was different because Wolves were in full tilt from minute one (albeit against a far lesser team). They were also in full tilt in the second half in Manchester. Rob Edwards’ job is now to prepare a squad for a promotion campaign next season, in which Wolves are presumably going to have more of the ball and expected to push teams back and break down defences.
It’s not as simple as just “go out and attack”, but the common consensus from Saturday is that Wolves had nothing to lose so might as well have attempted their second-half performance at 3pm.
Sitting back costs Burnley again
It’s happened again. Burnley have conceded 11 goals this season in the 81st minute or later, more than any other club. They have only led in six matches this season, so you hardly have to be a genius to work out that they were going to have to defend leads well. And they rank low for points per game in those situations.
It’ll keep happening, according to supporters at least, if Scott Parker keeps his team dropping deeper towards their own goal and abandons attempts to put pressure upon opposition defences when in a strong position.
Burnley have no choice but to be courageous now or they are going to get relegated while wondering what might have been.
West Ham are doing the basics well
This might sound like damning with faint praise, but West Ham have improved immeasurably over their last two games by simply doing the basics well. Watch them in Nuno Espirito Santo’s first few games again and you’ll notice the difference.
The mistakes from central defenders, either in position or decision-making, have been ironed out. Central midfield is less creative without Lucas Paqueta but works so much better because the strength in this team lies in its two wingers. Manuel Fernandes – and his brilliant finish – has enough style anyway.
But it’s Jarrod Bowen and Crysencio Summerville who will pull West Ham clear of danger if they manage it. They have strikers to aim for, can both beat a full-back on both sides and on Saturday were far too good for Sunderland in the first half.
Nottingham Forest remain utterly baffling
Just when Nottingham Forest supporters were out on Sean Dyche, he drags them back in with one of the best results of their Premier League season. This team remains utterly baffling, sometimes solid defensively and adventurous on the counter attack and other times very much neither of those two things.
In Dyche’s defence, Forest are now 11th in the Premier League since he took over a team in chaos. He has definitely lost the right to repeat his “give me better players and I’ll give you better football” schtick, but his actual football worked a treat on Brentford.
Most importantly, the strikers came to the fore. Before Sunday, Igor Jesus had the lowest shot-to-goal conversion rate of every Premier League player with 20 or more shots – he scored. Taiwo Awoniyi scored his first league goal in more than a year to seal the game.
Leeds
Play Everton on Monday night.
Crystal Palace are not safe
Oliver Glasner may have publicly insisted that everything is hunky dory behind the scenes at Selhurst Park but a) I don’t really believe him and b) it was still a spectacularly bad weekend for Palace.
West Ham, Bournemouth and Forest all winning means that Glasner’s team have sunk to 15th. Next weekend: Forest away without Adam Wharton.
Make no mistake, Palace are not safe yet. Jean-Philippe Mateta and Glasner may stay but the former looks disinterested and the latter has let it be known that he is leaving in the summer. It is mighty difficult to manage that situation, let alone when the team hasn’t won a league game since 7 December.
Tottenham’s misery continues
Thomas Frank is still Tottenham manager at the time of writing, which is ridiculous given how little chance there is of him turning the situation around, the toxicity of the atmosphere and how the supposed leadership inside the club are opening themselves up to more flak.
A draw at Burnley, requiring a last-minute equaliser despite taking a lead, can only be interpreted as another step backwards. Tottenham are not in a relegation fight yet, but their next four league fixtures are against Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle and Arsenal. Frank has got his team up for the biggest games in the main; he shouldn’t get the chance to do it again.
Even Tottenham’s goals paint Frank in a poor light. Whatever your thoughts on their individual capabilities and the rash of injuries that have ruled out Dominic Solanke and Dejan Kulusevski for almost all of the season, this team is painfully poor at creating chances in open play. Three Spurs players have scored more than five goals in all competitions this season – Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven are two of them. Thank goodness for set-pieces.
Iraola deserves this bounce at Bournemouth
Ten days ago, Oliver Glasner attacked his own club for selling his best players and, with Glasner out of contract this summer, effectively confirmed an extended goodbye.
Andoni Iraola could have done the same. Since the start of last summer, he has lost his first-choice centre-back pairing, his best left-back and his best attacking player. Iraola is also out of contract this summer and has handled himself impeccably in every press conference.
And Iraola keeps getting results. After a run of 11 winless matches threatened to bring Bournemouth closer to trouble, they have beaten Tottenham, lost only on penalties at Newcastle, drawn at Brighton and now beaten Liverpool. They are comfortably mid-table and that absolutely represents significant achievement. Iraola has moved above Glasner for big-club conversations.
Brighton are in danger of drifting into trouble
The basic numbers aren’t great. Brighton were the highest-placed finishers in the Premier League last season not to qualify for Europe. The gentler workload, summer investment and Fabian Hurzeler being a year further into a nascent elite coaching career offered hope of a top-seven push.
Instead – and despite the slow start to 2024-25 – Brighton have four fewer points than at the same point last season and they have won one of their last 10 league games. That’s simply not good enough.
One growing issue – according to supporters at least – is how Hurzeler is using his substitutes. Brighton’s deeper squad has worked out well in the main this season; they have more substitute goal involvements than any other team. So why on earth did Hurzeler let the game drift from 1-0 to 1-1 and not use any of his options until the 81st minute?
Everton
Play Leeds on Monday night.
Shock: Sunderland badly missed Xhaka
Sunderland were asked to play a Premier League fixture without Granit Xhaka for the first time this season and the results were predictable. Xhaka covers so much ground, makes so many tackles and moves forward when appropriate in such a manner that replacing him in this team would probably require two players.
Regis Le Bris asked Enzo Le Fee to play in Xhaka’s position. It looked a little too open on the teamsheet and it proved exactly as much in the first half. Sunderland were still able to counter-attack at speed and Brian Brobbey was direct in possession, but too many times it took only two West Ham passes for the home team to create a one vs one for a winger.
Also: that’s nothing to panic about; it happens. Sunderland have 33 points and that, to them, is all that should matter.
Howe needs to switch things up at Newcastle
Last week, this column called for Eddie Howe to try a 4-2-3-1 to get an attacking midfielder closer to the centre-forward, because the wingers were struggling as opposition managers knew they would be the main attacking impetus.
A week on, Howe was without Bruno Guimaraes and thus given a fine chance to try that plan. Instead he carried on with 4-3-3 and again saw Newcastle largely only causing a significant threat when a central midfielder managed to dribble through (rather than a winger).
It’s one thing to do that when your striker is massive – the wingers can deliver crosses – but to do it with Yoane Wissa starting over Nick Woltemade just doesn’t really make sense. Wissa needs players close to him to dovetail with.
Berge has to offer Fulham more in midfield
Fulham turned the game around to beat Brighton and – temporarily – go seventh in the Premier League. It’s a phenomenal achievement by Marco Silva, given the uncertainty over his own future.
There is one sticking point: the form of Sander Berge. Too often recently, Berge has proven himself incapable of avoiding being caught on the ball in midfield.
The physical frame is there for Berge to dominate those duels, but that doesn’t happen enough either. Fulham have invested in attacking midfielders recently; a new central midfielder might be the first summer task.
Slot is losing his grip at Liverpool
The unlikely unbeaten run is over, and with it Arne Slot loses a firm grip on his job. It’s not that Champions League qualification is out of reach, but that every step forward this season has been stopped – and overshadowed – by the issues across the pitch that have haunted the entire campaign. Attacking fluency, defensive shambles, supposed senior players underperforming; it’s an awful hat-trick.
How best to epitomise these problems? The defining moments late in tight matches. Liverpool have now conceded a 90th-minute (or later) goal to lose a game for the third time in the Premier League, their most ever. They also conceded in injury time to draw at Leeds and Fulham.
Those games have cost them seven points. Without them they would be comfortably ensconced in the top four, still imperfect but perhaps not quite in crisis. It can no longer be coincidence.
Chelsea’s impressive away form
This Premier League season has seen home form largely be king. No team has earned 2.0 points per game away from home and only Arsenal have earned more than 1.75.
So it’s worth pointing out that, for all Chelsea’s ups and downs this season, their away form has been very solid. The Blues have scored three or more goals in six away matches in all competitions and only Aston Villa and Arsenal have more away points.
Victory at Palace was incredibly routine. That’s a huge compliment when you’re only a fortnight into a new manager’s tenure.
Amorim, Man Utd want a word
Following Sir Alex Ferguson was the hardest job in football, but following Ruben Amorim might just be the nicest gig in the game.
The arrival of Michael Carrick has given Manchester United’s players a clear lift, but so too has the removal of exhaustingly illogical tactics, a formation that made no sense and a manager constantly reminding everybody how bad it was in press conferences.
Freedom is a powerful ingredient for elite footballers, particularly when it follows such a clear strangulation of their best elements. Carrick has returned to a formation that makes sense, has simplified instructions and (he deserves credit for this) chosen attacking, front-foot substitutions in key moments. He’s two games in and he’s already done more than his predecessor.
Another good day for Aston Villa
Obviously everything that Aston Villa touch this season turns to gold and goals, but I just wanted to give some love to Emi Buendia.
An attacking midfielder who looked to be finished at Villa is having comfortably the best top-flight season of his career.
If Villa are the kings of long-range goals, Buendia joins Morgan Rodgers as a leader of the movement. Four of his six goals this season have been from outside the penalty area. While Rogers has the special move from the left flank, Buendia can curl them in from both sides of the box.
Man City’s radical Plan B
Erling Haaland might well stress that he has specific ways of scoring goals that he is super-elite at and his Manchester City teammates haven’t been producing those types of chances much recently. It’s also worth saying that Wolves is a perfect home fixture for Pep Guardiola to try something new after four straight winless league games and a midweek defeat in Norway.
Still, this was new and interesting: Haaland officially dropped for Omar Marmoush, who has seen so little Premier League action this season that a loan move was mooted. There was certainly greater fluidity to City in the first half, although it would have been nice to see Phil Foden in the team to make those advancing runs beyond Marmoush – Bernardo Silva can’t quite do them anymore.
Is it a permanent change? Probably not. But does being a little more freeform in attack and solid in defence (Marc Guehi made his debut) make sense? Absolutely.
Arsenal have to control the psychological mood
It is disappointing to lose. It is more disappointing that Arsenal have made such hard work of creating chances in open play over the last few weeks; I think that’s got worse. It is disappointing to concede all three of the shots on target you face, including a farce and two nonsensically good finishes.
But Arsenal have a four-point lead and it is January. The footage of Gabriel Magalhaes looking utterly broken by the third goal was astonishing. I don’t mean to go all amateur psychologist, but you have to avoid your emotional responses becoming too extreme otherwise your own implosion becomes self-fulfilling.
That isn’t a problem yet. But Arsenal will have setbacks between now and May, as will their title rivals. They have to manage these setbacks rather than every supporter losing their mind that a collapse is inevitable. Otherwise it is far more likely to happen.
Read more: Arsenal are in genuine danger of bottling this title race
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