Back at the beginning of August, Manchester City were the odds-on favourites for the title, Liverpool were predicted to finish second at worse and there were murmurings that Tottenham might be well placed to make a push. None of that is now true.
Instead, it is Arsenal who have set an outrageous pace with the youngest team in the division as we enter the second half of the season.
Liverpool, Chelsea and Spurs are all creaking but Manchester United have kicked on under Erik ten Hag. If 2022-23 continues on the same course, only 2015-16 will rival it for title shock and “Big Six” weirdness in the modern era.
We take a look at who’s done what well and badly, the star players on show and what will define the second half of the season for the country’s “Big Six”. Newcastle might make that term redundant soon…
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What’s gone well?
Everything. The biggest shock isn’t just that Arsenal are mounting a serious title challenge having failed to even finish in the top four since 2016, but that they are currently on course for the second-highest points total in English top-flight history. The defence is secure, the central midfield is picking itself, the young players out wide are delivering beyond expectation and the goals are being shared around the team.
If you were picking just one thing, it would be the defensive record. This season, Arsenal rank second for shots on targets faced and expected goals against; last season they were sixth and seventh. The stable platform of William Saliba and Gabriel is the bedrock for the rapid improvement.
What’s gone badly?
Nothing, yet. That one-word caveat is important because Arsenal are yet to face Manchester City in the league and this weekend play the only team who have beaten them. But this half season merits us focusing on what has gone right rather than what might go wrong. Gabriel Jesus’ injury was certainly a hiccup, but Eddie Nketiah has stepped into the breach ably. The only slight flaw is the number of shots allowed from set-piece situations, 27 vs Manchester City’s 10. But we’re reaching there: Arsenal haven’t conceded a goal from any of them.
Player of the season so far?
Martin Odegaard, who has been the best player in the country. The boy who was signed by Real Madrid, and understandably struggled for relevance, has become a man. You can examine the numbers, discussing the chances created, the second assists (where he plays the pass to the guy who assists the goal), the accuracy of the shots from outside the box and the willingness to track back defensively, but it really just comes down to this: every time Odegaard gets the ball, you nudge a little further towards the edge of your seat because you know something wonderful might be about to happen.
Anything to do in January?
Missing out on Mykhailo Mudryk, especially if the finances of the deal didn’t make complete sense, was only a backwards step if Arsenal are not able to source an alternative. The difficult balance is obvious: the first team is incredibly settled but lacking in depth in most positions. Convincing high-end players to sign without the guarantee of being an instant first-team starter is complicated, but so too is changing the starting XI while everything is rosy. And Arsenal have bought enough low-use fodder in recent years that they should avoid buying for buying’s sake.
What will define the rest of the season?
It’s tempting to say what happens in January, but Mikel Arteta deserves better than that. Instead, the results against Manchester City are clearly going to be instructive, but Arsenal are very likely to hold a lead at the top until March. Then it becomes a question of holding your nerve. Until now, Arsenal have played with a swagger and insouciance that belies the magnitude of what is building. But winning a title involves clearing psychological hurdles that successful experience makes easier. Will Oleksandr Zinchenko and Jesus become dressing room leaders to keep everyone calm?
Chelsea
What’s gone well?
If idle hands are the devil’s tools, Chelsea are on the side of the angels. Since they won at Everton on the opening weekend, Chelsea have sacked a manager, appointed a new one, appointed a series of new coaches overhauled the recruitment team and signed Wesley Fofana, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Benoît Badiashile, David Datro Fofana and Mykhailo Mudryk plus Denis Zakaria and Joao Felix on loan. You’d struggle to convince anyone that any of this has been successfully implemented, given that Chelsea are tenth, but Todd Boehly would claim that he has made decisions to herald the next era of this club.
What’s gone badly?
Is there a plan here? Chelsea sacked Thomas Tuchel because the performances had declined and relationships were strained with certain players, appointing Graham Potter to oversee the construction of a longer-term, holistic vision. But Chelsea have since made several short-term signings, hardly fitting the Potter ideal.
On the pitch, Chelsea have struggled for any cohesion in the attacking third (they rank 13th for expected goals) and the consistency of selection has held them back. So far in the league, they’ve used eight players at centre-back, nine different players as a wing-back, seven as a central midfielder and six as the starting centre forward.
Player of the season so far?
It’s probably Thiago Silva, which is amusing because he’s the oldest player in the Premier League and Chelsea have now spent £135m on three specialist central defenders since he signed. The ideal would be that Thiago Silva could be rested and rotated as appropriate, or even used as a fill-in, experienced option when form and fitness dictated. Instead, he’s played 150 league minutes more than anyone else in Chelsea blue because Kalidou Koulibaly has struggled, Wesley Fofana has been injured, Marc Cucurella doesn’t look comfortable there and Benoit Badiashile has just signed.
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Anything to do in January?
The best answer is to pretend that the transfer window shuts early. “We’ve got to be, not necessarily careful, but you’ve got to understand we’ve got ten or eleven players unavailable and you can’t just sign players to replace those because then you’d have a squad of 30 and that is a problem,” said Potter after Mudryk was unveiled at Stamford Bridge. And he’s right. Fans often believe their club will just move on fringe players like it’s a simple process. There’s a reason Baba Rahman and Tiemoue Bakayoko are still under contract at Chelsea.
What will define the rest of the season?
On the pitch, Potter is not guaranteed to still be in position in June. Supporters need to see evidence that their new manager is capable of rising above the maelstrom and working out a) what his best team is (not easy when new players keep arriving) and b) patterns of attack that don’t render Chelsea a little toothless. There is still no flagship central striker, so Potter is probably going to have to create chances by committee. At the other end, Badiashile must become a starter to partner Fofana, if Thiago Silva isn’t to get worn out and Koulibaly is now second-choice.
Liverpool
What’s gone well?
Liverpool have had lots and lots of shots, so that’s something. No team in the Premier League has had more shots on target this season, only one team has created more chances and only one has had more of the ball. There are an awful lot of caveats required to make that an entirely positive statement, but the loss of Sadio Mane and arrival of Darwin Nunez has caused a jump in the number of shots Liverpool are taking. It’s just a shame virtually everything else in the team is creaking, breaking or broken.
What’s gone badly?
Defensively, Liverpool are a mess. They have allowed more shots on target than two of the current bottom three, have allowed more big chances than anyone but Leeds and Fulham and concede a higher average quality of chance (expected goals per shot) than anyone else in the Premier League.
So what is the explanation? Fatigue causing a lack of aggression and energy; confidence shattered by damaging defeats; a loss of faith in defensive colleagues; injury absences causing disarray; a lack of pressing efficiency caused by changes in forward line; individual errors on repeat – these are the theories. The worry is that the actual answer might be: all of the above.
Player of the season so far?
You stare at the page repeatedly and come no closer to an answer. Is it Mohamed Salah, who at least has 12 goals and assists – but is definitely worse than last season? Is it Andrew Robertson, with five assists and the least culpable of the regular defenders? Is it Roberto Firmino, who has ten goals and assists in 13 appearances – but he got five of them against Bournemouth? Robertson is probably the fair choice, but the honest answer is the dynamic central midfielder who isn’t always injured that they didn’t sign.
Anything to do in January?
Jurgen Klopp says no, insisting “I can’t see it because of the situation we are in. I cannot change the answer every week because the situation doesn’t change, even though we lost another game.” Liverpool already signed Cody Gakpo and that might be that.
There’s also some logic in that. If Liverpool do indeed need to rebuild their midfield, it will involve selling players and sourcing long-term targets as replacements; that is probably not possible over the next 10 days. If that means Liverpool miss out on the Champions League or Europe entirely, Klopp must believe in the greater good.
What will define the rest of the season?
If the plan does gradually become a case of planning for next season, Klopp might as well focus on specific parts of his team. That produces a number of questions – all are relevant: 1) Are the full-backs still the ones to provide the attacking impetus? What is the first-choice combination of forwards when Luis Diaz, Diogo Jota, Gakpo, Salah and Nunez are all available? Which of the three most senior midfielders in front of Fabinho – Henderson, Keita, Thiago – keep their place next season if signings are made? And, most importantly for supporters, can Liverpool separate league form from European progress?
Manchester City
What’s gone well?
On the data, just about everything. Manchester City have had the most shots and conceded the fewest. They have conceded the lowest expected goals figure and recorded the highest. In terms of allowing shots on their own goal, Pep Guardiola’s side are extraordinary: 7.1 per match, almost 1.5 lower than any other team. They also possess an emphatically dominant centre forward, who has six more goals than any other player in the division. For all the reasonable accusations of decline from last season, it’s worth remembering that City’s previous standards were astoundingly high.
What’s gone badly?
There are three obvious problems. The first is that City have become liable to move the ball too slowly during those games when opponents remain disciplined with a counter-attacking threat, causing stagnation in possession. Secondly, City have picked up a bad habit of conceding from the small number of chances they do allow – they concede from 12 per cent of their shots, vs Arsenal’s seven per cent.
Finally, and this is probably the cause of the second problem, City seem to to lose defensive concentration in odd moments: switching off after the equaliser in the derby, the 15 minutes before half-time against Newcastle, the opening to the game against Brentford. There is a wasteful, inexact side to City in and out of possession that has cropped up infrequently but often enough to annoy.
Player of the season so far?
It’s still Erling Haaland, even if the last fortnight has provoked questions about whether City have changed too much of what was working so well last season to accommodate him. Haaland has scored 21 goals in 17 league games with peerless efficiency and if City win the league he will be named the league’s best player. Only two players have had more shots, suggesting that he’s not exactly struggling for service despite often feeling alienated from the rest of the match. The question is whether City are better as a result.
Anything to do in January?
It doesn’t seem so. While Chelsea go hog wild and Arsenal look to supplement their bench options to fuel the title challenge, there have been precious few rumours around City adding to the squad. Pep Guardiola has only signed one first-team player in January since 2018 and that was Julian Alvarez, who has progressed to the first team ahead of schedule. Whatever cause there has been for the comparatively sticky domestic results, City are unlikely to target the transfer market for a solution.
What will define the rest of the season?
Arsenal’s form? If City draw one of their fixtures against the league leaders and win the other, the gap will be four points and there are another 48 points available. If Arsenal maintain their prodigious form against the Premier League rest (46 points from a possible 48 from everyone in fourth or below), they will be almost impossible to stop. But Guardiola knows how much pressure his side can create with one of their winning runs. That is the only way to put pressure on the leaders: a relentless run of 8-10 victories that makes competing against them seem futile.
Manchester United
What’s gone well?
If the theory was that only through adversity could Erik ten Hag prove himself at Manchester United, he got that out of the way early. United were bottom of the league after losing their first two league games by an aggregate scoreline of 6-1. Since then, the disruptive influence of Cristiano Ronaldo has been moved out, fringe or underperforming players have been rejuvenated and Ten Hag has taken United on runs of four and five consecutive league wins.
Ten Hag has used a strategy that relies upon soaking up pressure (Casemiro has made a world of difference) and then using Marcus Rashford as his principal counter-attacking weapon. The confidence in the central defenders, how United play the ball through midfield and the resilience when conceding are the noticeable differences.
What’s gone badly?
There have been some expensive casualties, although not all of them may be irreversible. Harry Maguire is no longer first choice, Anthony Martial has not taken the chance to lead the line and Antony still looks incredibly raw for a 22-year-old who cost £86m (although his hard work is appreciated). Bruno Fernandes has occasionally appeared frustrated, perhaps because he would prefer possession to counter attacks, but on the whole, everything looks far healthier than we might have envisaged five months ago.
Player of the season so far?
Luke Shaw deserves immense credit for the manner in which he volunteered to play centre-back and has since kept his place, while it will never not be joyous to see Marcus Rashford fit and having fun again, but the game changer was Casemiro. Roy Keane once said of Eric Cantona: “Collar up, back straight, chest stuck out, he glided into the arena as if he owned the f___ing place.” Casemiro has done exactly the same, striding around Old Trafford to put out fires and help teammates feel at ease as if changing club and country at 30 is nothing at all.
Anything to do in January?
Not now Wout Weghorst has arrived. Weghorst is a low-cost, probably low-output option to be used as a Plan B centre forward as a replacement for Ronaldo, but he is also here because Manchester United are up for sale. The Glazers spent £230m (of the club’s money) last summer and were never likely to countenance investment in January when they may well not be at the club to see it bloom into value. With a striker on the shopping list, Ten Hag was informed that only a loan deal would be sanctioned.
What will define the rest of the season?
We’ve all been tricked by this before, but United’s improvement under Ten Hag does feel sustainable. The continuation of that sustainable improvement is the only goal between now and June. Pushing themselves into the title race would be fabulous, as would an appearance in the Europa League final. But these are merely pointers along the path and Ten Hag is keen not to create undue ambition because he believes this squad will take two years to fully fix. If everyone is still smiling and on the same page when the summer – and a potential takeover – arrives, everything else is a bonus.
Tottenham
What’s gone well?
Harry Kane has scored 15 league goals, which is handy. The fact that it’s 11 more than anyone else and that we’re already grasping at straws to fill the word count for this section is less than ideal, but Kane is still prolific. Spurs also started their league season with five wins and two draws to generate early talk of a title challenge, which is just as well because it has been bottom-half form since. You’d also have to praise Antonio Conte for the manner of his team’s resilience: Tottenham have taken 14 points from matches in which they have conceded first. Again, it’s just as well really.
What’s gone badly?
Spurs have conceded more goals than two of the bottom three over the first half of the season. The goals they have scored – normally in the second half, normally when chasing a game – suggest that they are prolific through necessity rather than design. Son Heung-min looks thoroughly miserable, central midfield is broken when Rodrigo Bentancur isn’t playing and Conte, supposedly the master of wing-back play, has still not found a solution that makes them highly effective. Oh, and Hugo Lloris’ time as an elite goalkeeper has probably ended.
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Player of the season so far?
Kane has been Tottenham’s best player because he’s always Tottenham’s best player, but it’s Bentancur who now makes the biggest difference to the team because they look so lethargic and one-paced without him. Spurs have won two of the six games without him and he would surely not have taken that first-half humiliation by Arsenal lying down. Bentancur is multifunctional – wins the ball, drive forward, looks to pick progressive passes – in a sea of one-dimensionality.
Anything to do in January?
Lots to do, but not lots to buy. Antonio Conte was given six new first-team outfield players last summer and, for various reasons, only one of those has started more than 60 per cent of their league matches. Tottenham’s bench for the north London derby was as follows: Forster (summer signing), Gil (£20m signing), Perisic (summer signing), Davies, Sanchez (£40m signing), Skipp, Richarlison (club-record signing), Bissouma (summer signing), Emerson (£20m signing). You can’t just keep adding players and none of them really hit off.
What will define the rest of the season?
Tottenham are at a crossroads. On-pitch form will clearly be instructive, particularly if the good start to the season becomes an increasingly distant memory, but at some point, Tottenham will have to make a choice about whether to hand Conte the keys to the place or whether to sack him and change tack. That change might involve another high-end manager (Tuchel), an old favourite (Mauricio Pochettino) or a club builder in the Pochettino mould but without the emotional history/baggage. At this point, goodness only knows which way this lurches next.
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