Managers under pressure at the top and bottom of the Premier League will often speak with certainty about ignoring the league table and concentrating on winning games.
But at high-flying Brentford, it is not simply PR spin or avoidance tactics. They really mean it.
“The league table and results are too emotional. We don’t tend to pay much attention it because they can be distorted and you can make some really bad decisions off the back of them,” a source tells i.
Instead, the Bees run an alternative table based on “underlying metrics” which is, in their opinion, a far more accurate assessment of how good each team is in the league and how they’re progressing.
Exactly which stats feature in the table remains a pretty closely guarded secret – Brentford’s secret sauce as they look to stay one step ahead of rivals now scrambling to adopt their analytics-heavy approach – but they are tailored to provide a “more granular idea of what’s going on” than just goals, shots on target and possession stats.
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Their internal goal for this season is simple and fairly unshowy: to become an average Premier League side across those secret metrics.
Understandably, the club aren’t readily prepared to share insight gleaned from those shadow standings. But there is one club in the top seven currently overachieving who are probably overdue a dip in form, and at least one in the relegation fight who should be comfortably mid-table. Brentford – happily – sit in a pretty similar position in both tables.
Brentford might not be paying attention but the actual table makes for happy reading. Heading into this weekend’s game against Crystal Palace they are an outside bet for a Europa League push in just their second season in the Premier League. Third in the form table, they’ve not lost for ten games and have wins against Liverpool and Manchester City on their resume in that time.
Those looking for a secret formula are likely to be disappointed. “People ask how we’ve done it and the answer is consistency,” the source says.
Most of the team that has carried Brentford through this run were recruited and played for the club in the Championship. The transfer strategy before promotion was to concentrate on buying young players with the potential to grow into good Premier League players and that has paid off.
In the years they failed to do that, the same players were sold to fund further investment in the squad. Risk-taking in recruitment hasn’t always paid off but there have been enough successes to ensure owner Matthew Benham hasn’t had to fund their rise.
They are serene about the prospect of their best players being picked off in the summer, something that has consistently happened to Brighton’s upwardly mobile squad.
It is a happy environment where senior players and staff are trusted. Thomas Frank was linked with the Everton job last month but it was never a realistic prospect.
He has told friends that there are probably only ten jobs in world football better than the one he has at the moment on account of the freedom he has to make decisions and the upward trajectory the club is on.
Not one first-team player has asked to leave in the last three years and a bigger worry than stars departed is how to maintain their hit rate for recruitment now that they have the budget of an established Premier League club.
“That is the hard part that a lot of clubs have struggled with. How do we recruit players whilst keeping what we have in tact,” a source says.
Losing players? Brentford made a habit of selling their best every year until they were promoted. There was no panic that Christian Eriksen left in the summer and the anticipated departure of star goalkeeper David Raya – whose contract expires in the summer of 2024 – will be planned for. Spurs and Chelsea are showing interest in the Spain goalkeeper.
The darkest cloud on the horizon is the FA charge hanging over Ivan Toney, who was charged with breaching betting rules 262 times. i understands the club and player are due to answer those in the coming weeks but the case is complicated and involves alleged historic misdemeanors.
For now, though, they will be resisting the temptation to get carried away with the results.
“Football is chaos, that’s one of the reasons why it’s so compelling. Things can unravel quickly not based on any particular choice you make,” a source says. As long as the metrics point in the right direction, there won’t be panic in West London.
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