When Tottenham have received an opening bid of £60m, any discussion of Harry Kane joining Bayern Munich imminently feels a little academic. Spurs will reject it and the cycle will start again ad nauseum.
It is reported in Germany that personal terms have already been agreed, which is plausible. After all, Kane’s on-off desire to leave Spurs was never about money.
Yet there are boxes still to be ticked. The first, not insignificant hurdle, is persuading Daniel Levy that it is better to part with his star asset now, well below the £100m mark he is thought to be holding out for, rather than wait a year and lose him for nothing.
The second is where Kane comes in. Approaching his 30th birthday, he has already paid the price once of leaving his fate to his representatives.
Two years on from a botched move to Manchester City, he is no longer relying on a “gentleman’s agreement” to be allowed to move on in search of trophies; instead, he is hoping an offer will materialise that is too tempting, too logical for Levy to decline.
Where the lines become blurred is in the details. For every good argument as to why Kane should push for a move to the Bundesliga champions, there is an equally valid reason for him to say no.
Alan Shearer’s record
In terms of personal milestones, Kane has already reached them all – well, nearly. He is Tottenham’s record goalscorer, having surpassed Jimmy Greaves’ tally of 266 last season, and achieved the same feat with England in March, eclipsing Wayne Rooney.
At his current ratio since his major breakthrough in 2014-15, Kane is on just over 23 goals a season. If he continues at that rate – and his most recent campaign matched his best ever league tally of 30 – it will take him almost just over two more seasons in the Premier League to overtake Alan Shearer (260) as its greatest ever striker. He is currently on 213.
Options next year
Even if Kane were willing to give that up by moving overseas, there may well be more attractive options if he only holds out. Real Madrid have also been monitoring his situation following Karim Benzema’s exit and he is likely to attract a whole new host of suitors in 12 months’ time when he is available on a free transfer. Manchester United and Barcelona are other options.
The trophy conundrum
Indeed the allure lies not only in the destination, but its surroundings. Are all league titles born equal, or are some more equal than others? If it a sense of worthwhile that Kane craves, will he find it in a Bundesliga that has not had any other champion for the last 11 seasons?
Kane may yet be carried out of Tottenham by armies of armchair critics with an advanced, perverse case of Magpie Syndrome for whom trophies are king. The berating of Kane’s empty mantelpiece – if you discount the MBE and four Golden Boots (three Premier League, one World Cup) – could only have happened in the nonsensical digital age.
Bayern won’t win the Champions League
Still, Thomas Tuchel has one inducement which cannot be disputed. Bayern Munich have a better chance of winning the Champions League, or in fact any European trophy, than Tottenham, who did not even qualify for the Conference League. But the question is how far above zero that barometer actually floats: they have been knocked out at the quarter-finals in the last two seasons.
Tottenham’s new era
If Bayern feel like a known quantity, however, Spurs’ season feels as if it could go either way.
Ange Postecoglou arrives with the promise of attacking football and could soon be followed by James Maddison, easing the creative burden on Kane and tending to a long neglected wound opened by Christian Eriksen’s departure in 2020. Spurs have also confirmed the signing of goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario, who is expected to replace Hugo Lloris.
Family ties
Whatever transpires, Tottenham offers a haven of stability which no transfer can provide. Kane lives in Essex with his wife Kate and three children – and in March, the couple announced they are expecting a fourth.
Bad blood buried
In the summer of 2021, there was considerable resentment at the perception Levy had not kept his promise from the previous summer that Kane would be able to quit Spurs. That has cooled in the intervening years, even if the crux of his frustrations remain – the trophy drought has stretched from 13 to 15 years in that time and an eighth-placed finish was the club’s lowest since 2009.
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