Aston Villa predictions 2023-24: Glory on the cards after generous backing for perfectionist Unai Emery

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What is likely to go well?

From when Unai Emery started work on 1 November, Aston Villa ranked fifth in the Premier League. They have collected four fewer points than Arsenal (second in a table across that period) with a game in hand. The obvious question looms: if Emery can do that without a full pre-season, what might happen this season?

And already we know what to expect. Emery is committed to defensive discipline and has strengthened his options there. The high-intensity work of the central midfielders allows full-backs Alex Moreno and Matty Cash to push high up the pitch. And, under Emery, Villa have so many options for creating chances: crosses from those full-backs, Ollie Watkins as a target man with runners off him, overlapping central midfielders, high turnovers, Emi Buendia’s dribbling.

European competition clearly complicates matters a touch, but then the Europa Conference League does typically provide a range of group-stage opponents who would allow for rotation. And in central midfield, where the tone is typically set, Villa have plenty of options.

In fact, one of the only reasons to doubt Villa’s progress in the league is that they might well choose to attack the cup competitions with gusto. Having gone almost 30 years without a trophy, and with so many weaker clubs below them in the Premier League, why would Emery not rely upon his prodigious club record to seek European or domestic cup glory?

What is going to be a challenge?

Last January, Emery emphatically built around Watkins as the central striker by allowing Danny Ings to leave for West Ham United. He was fully vindicated by that decision, but it has left a hole if Watkins was ever unavailable. Jhon Duran is the only likely replacement and he didn’t go on the club’s pre-season tour to the USA.

Central defence also poses significant questions. The injury suffered by Diego Carlos early last season forced Emery’s hand, but Ezri Konsa and Tyrone Mings performed superbly; it would be extremely harsh if either were to lose their place. But then Carlos is now fit and Villa have spent big money on Pau Torres from Emery’s former club. A decision must be made that may shape the season.

Finally, there’s no doubt that Emery benefitted from the low bar set by Steven Gerrard. Given the performance of last season and the investment in the squad since, expectations at Villa Park are the highest they have been in at least 15 years. A top-six place is seen as a legitimate aim, but you are still competing with the familiar names, plus Newcastle and Brighton.

How has the transfer window gone so far?

Emery can hardly say that he has not been backed. Torres is a high-profile central defender who was heavily linked with Manchester United last year. Youri Tielemans was the prime free transfer target in the Premier League. Moussa Diaby is a step up on both, a versatile forward with skill and pace who cost north of £50m and was reportedly Emery’s top target.

Just as important are the moves off the field. Appointing Monchi as a sporting director is a coup, and reinforces Emery’s vision given their shared history. Damian Vidagany, another Emery acolyte, has been promoted to director of football operations. The ownership are creating a structure around Emery that secures his position and, they believe, will take Villa even further forward.

Key player

Watkins is probably the player that Villa can replace least effectively without another signing, but Douglas Luiz is the player that makes them tick most and was voted as the club’s player of the season by supporters and his teammates. Like Declan Rice at West Ham, Douglas has evolved from a holding midfielder and ball-winner into a progressive midfielder who can either force turnovers higher up the pitch or create chances in tight spots. It will be fascinating to see how his and Jacob Ramsey’s roles adapt to the arrival of Tielemans.

The manager

Emery is a perfectionist, demanding a complete buy-in from his players. Villa were also fortunate to appoint him, taking advantage of his dented reputation in England following a spell at Arsenal that came laced with unfair jibes as well as legitimate criticism. Nothing epitomises the power of the Premier League, and the foolishness of appointing on playing reputation, than a club close to the bottom three under Gerrard landing one of Europe’s savviest coaches.

Villa have invested a lot in Emery, given the change of structure; sometimes that can be a little dangerous if things go awry. But for now, the players have bought into the plan and Villa are one of the most attractive clubs in England to join. You would not have said that two years ago.

Prediction

Go for the cup competition in pursuit of glory, even if it places a ceiling on league position. 8th

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