Manchester City face Real Madrid in a blockbuster play-off meeting for a place in the Champions League round of 16.
Both City and Madrid were among the heavyweights who fell short in the league phase of this new-look competition, finishing outside of the top eight as Aston Villa joined Arsenal and Liverpool in directly progressing to the last 16.
City’s shock 22nd-place finish – they only scraped through on Wednesday after an early scare against Club Brugge – also meant they were not seeded for this knockout play-off round, their final standing handing Pep Guardiola’s side the prospect of either Madrid or Bayern Munich.
Friday’s Champions League draw ultimately landed 2023 winners City against Madrid, the record 15-times winners, while Scottish champions Celtic face Bayern in the play-offs.
City and Madrid therefore meet for the fourth consecutive season in this competition. Last year, Madrid won on penalties to reach the semi-finals after a 4-4 draw on aggregate.
In 2022-23, City won their semi-final meeting 5-1 en route to winning the treble, while the season prior Madrid won the semi-final 6-5 after extra time. On all three of those occasions, the winners of that tie went on to lift the trophy.
Celtic meanwhile last played Bayern in 2017, losing both group matches home and away.
The first legs of the knockout play-off round take place on 11-12 February, with the return legs a week later. The last 16 then begins in early March, when Arsenal, Liverpool and Villa return to European action.
Champions League knockout play-off draw in full
- Brest vs Paris Saint-Germain
- Club Brugge vs Atalanta
- Manchester City vs Real Madrid
- Juventus vs PSV
- Monaco vs Benfica
- Sporting CP vs Borussia Dortmund
- Celtic vs Bayern Munich
- Feyenoord vs AC Milan
What about Arsenal, Aston Villa and Liverpool?
In bypassing the play-off round, Arsenal, Liverpool and Villa are among the top eight clubs who benefit from playing two fewer matches in the Champions League – getting February off European football as a result.
What those three Premier League clubs do know is that there are four possible opponents they could face in the last 16.
As it stands, Arsenal will play Feyenoord, Juventus, AC Milan or PSV in the Champions League round of 16, while Liverpool will face Monaco, Brest, PSG or Benfica, and for Aston Villa it is Club Brugge, Sporting, Borussia Dortmund or Atalanta.
And despite Friday’s draw determining the fixtures of the play-off round, Arsenal, Liverpool and Villa’s options are yet to be narrowed down.
This is to maintain some level of suspense. Only once the play-off round is complete will their list of potential opponents drop to two teams, with the last-16 draw on 21 February – two days after the play-off round finishes – being the date those three clubs will discover their fate.
From there, the path to the final in Munich will be much clearer given the 21 February draw will also dictate the quarter-finals and semi-finals.
What the current Champions League knockout bracket shows is that Arsenal could meet Celtic or Manchester City in the quarter-finals, while Villa could play Liverpool at the same stage.
However, Liverpool and Villa cannot face either Arsenal or City until the semi-finals at the earliest.
There is also the chance these Premier League clubs cannot face a domestic rival until the final, should they be placed in the other half of the draw come 21 February.
Analysis: Man City vs Real Madrid the tie Uefa needed
Concrete proof of whether this new-look Champions League is in fact an upgrade on its previous guise will come in Munich on 31 May.
Should the final result in Real Madrid lifting the European Cup again, many will shrug and say, “All that change, just for the same old outcome. What was the point?”
It may well apply if City go on and win the whole thing too, and it will leave many frustrated that the new format gifted Guardiola’s side a route into the knockouts – a la Portugal at Euro 2026 – when this kind of form would likely have seen them fall short last season.
Nevertheless, there is some justification in Uefa’s changes that one of the past two winners of this competition will not feature in the last 16, by which point the Champions League will look a little more familiar.
Real’s European pedigree is the envy of clubs the continent over. Even when they are being outshone in Spain, or seemingly in every Champions League tie they play – as was the case in the 2021-22 knockouts – they seemingly find a way.
The Spanish club have reached at least the last 16 every time they’ve played in the Champions League since its inception in 1992, which includes every season since 1997-98, and Carlo Ancelotti’s side have made at least the semis the last four seasons.
City, meanwhile, may be slighter newer to all this, but the last time they did not play a Champions League quarter-final was in 2017, when losing to Monaco.
Something has to give, therefore, and with one of Real or City not making the round of 16, Uefa will feel satisfied in their belief the new format serves up greater headlines – as well as giving them a mouthwatering match-up in a round that otherwise lacks huge fixtures.
You can hear the clinks of champagne glasses at Uefa’s headquarters in Nyon from here.
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