With a home game against Liverpool on Tuesday that is being labelled as a potential chance for Nottingham Forest to become a serious part of the Premier League title race, it is clear that an awful lot has changed at the City Ground.
None of this feels real to supporters, some of whom are simply basking in the magic and others who are trying not to say anything at all for fear of jinxing it.
Still, it is becoming apparent that this is no fluke.
We examine six of the principal ways in which Nuno Espirito Santo is manufacturing a mini-miracle…
Sacrificing possession again, but with a solid platform
Last season under Nuno, Forest did sacrifice possession and attempt to soak up pressure.
Only Sheffield United averaged less of the ball in the Premier League and Forest beat Burnley, Sheffield United and Fulham (their only league wins after mid-February) with 28, 46 and 34 per cent possession.
This season, nobody has less of the ball than Forest. But while in 2023-24 Forest seemed to defend out of necessity and because their retention of the ball in midfield was below par, now it is purely by design.
They set traps for the opposition, forcing them to cross the ball or pressing in specific areas outside their own penalty area. Then come the lightning counter-attacks.
The success is clearly built upon the defence thanks to the magnificent Nikola Milenkovic – Forest now have the joint-meanest record in the division. But that defence also starts attacks by the way it invites opponents to overload players and then allows Forest’s midfielders and full-backs to make the most of the space.
Nuno is not fussed by the number of shots Forest have (13th by that measure) because he knows his team may only need one or two clear opportunities to win a game. And so it has proven: Chris Wood has scored 12 league goals from 34 shots.
Set-piece defending
The defensive revolution at the City Ground is best viewed through the prism of their set pieces. In 2023-24, Forest conceded 10 league goals resulting directly from dead-ball situations (free-kicks, corners, goal kicks). For the second season in a row, they had the second-worst record of any Premier League team.
So far this season, Forest are yet to concede a goal from a dead-ball situation in 20 matches. If their open-play defending has helped sparked attacks, their set-piece defending demonstrates their newfound structural organisation.
The massive Milenkovic definitely helps, as does Matz Sels being the best goalkeeper in the division this season, one who is now comfortable commanding his area and dealing with crosses. But Nuno has also shifted Forest from a man-marking system – in which, too often, individuals lost concentration and their men – to a zonal system in which Milenkovic, Wood, Murillo and a central midfielder (Ryan Yates, if he’s on the pitch) are each responsible for an area around Sels.
Shifting shape with a lead
Under both Steve Cooper and Nuno, Forest had proven themselves to be incapable of holding onto a lead.
In 2022-23, they took the lead 20 times and won only nine; only relegated Leeds had a lower ratio. In 2023-24 under Cooper and Nuno, virtually the same: Forest won nine of the 19 games in which they led.
The same habit haunted them in early season, when Forest drew four of their first seven games and had scored first in all of them (the ludicrous thing is they really could be better off having taken two points from Bournemouth, Wolves and Fulham at home).
But since then, Nuno’s team have taken the lead in 11 league games and have won 10 of them (the exception being the home defeat against Newcastle).
In part that’s because of a winning in-game switch. We know that Nuno likes to use a back three (he flourished using it at Wolves). When Forest get a lead, Nuno tends to bring on central defender Morato for a central midfielder or winger and go 3-4-2-1 and double down on the “soak up pressure and counter” plan. You could argue that Morato has become one of the most important players as a result.
Anderson and Gibbs-White in the same team
The summer signing of Elliot Anderson was highly opportunistic, benefiting from Newcastle’s need to sell to meet PSR regulations. But it did seem highly unlikely that Anderson would get immediate starts, given Morgan Gibbs-White’s status in the squad. Nuno didn’t really play with a No 10, so Gibbs-White was already the most attacking of the three midfielders in a 4-3-3.
In fact, Nuno has found a way by turning both from attacking midfielders into all-action players and thus accommodating them in the team as a pair – they have both started in each of the six straight league wins.
Anderson always appeared to have bite in the tackle and therefore an ability to play slightly deeper as a deep-lying, passing playmaker, but Gibbs-White’s development is far more notable. During the 2-0 away win at Brentford, he made eight tackles; he only made 36 in the whole of last season.
By making these two multi-functional and persuading them that they can operate just as effectively from deeper, Nuno has supercharged the counter attack. In a typical move, the ball is won and passed to Anderson, who then looks for Gibbs-White. He then has space and pace to carry the ball forward, his quality provoking defenders to back off, fearful of the pace of the wingers in behind. Nobody has really found a way to thwart it yet.
Wingers acting as second strikers
Nuno has both rotated his wingers and the attacking shape to keep opposition managers on their toes.
Anthony Elanga and Callum Hudson-Odoi have both started together in 12 games and have been on the bench a combined nine times. With Ramon Sosa and Jota Silva being eased in after summer moves, Nuno can manage minutes effectively.
But one thing Nuno does demand from his wingers is that they become multi-functional forwards.
Although Forest line up as a 4-3-3 which suggests that the two wingers stay out wide, both Elanga and Hudson-Odoi are encouraged to make back-post runs to support Wood when the attack is created down the opposite wing.
Nuno also wants them to make direct runs centrally, rather than wide. For Elanga, running centrally puts him through on goal if a pass comes that utilises his pace (see the winner against Tottenham). For Hudson-Odoi, that allows him to go on the outside or inside of his defender when he receives the pass (he often gets extra space on the outside because they fear a shot).
Team spirit like never before
I’ve deliberately left this until last because it’s something that washes over everything else, but the team spirit within this group is extraordinary. Under Cooper, that spirit enabled was sourced from the goodwill within the home support that kept Forest up. Now it has become self-generating.
There are two moments that epitomise Forest’s season so far:
- When Taiwo Awoniyi, who has struggled for minutes and being beset by niggling injuries, scored against Wolves at Molineux, the reaction from his teammates was joyous. There appears to be an understanding that close-knit first-team squad is only as strong as the person suffering the most. See too how Harry Toffolo and Willy Boly, both fringe players this season, both play a large part in the cheerleading and celebrations.
- When Forest equalised late on against Aston Villa, following an Emi Martinez wonder save and marginal VAR offside decision, Nuno’s players could have been forgiven for being delighted with the draw. Given the experiences of the two clubs over the last two completed seasons, a point represented an excellent result. Instead, as the players were celebrating with Milenkovic, Gibbs-White ran over and urged them to get back to their own half: he wanted a winner (that then came in stoppage time). There’s a can-do, why-not mindset within this group that is led by its most ambitious members and it’s rubbing off on everyone else.
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