Atlanta United are edging closer to a deal for Newcastle United’s Miguel Almiron which will set up the first test of Paul Mitchell’s transfer mettle at St James’ Park.
The i Paper understands the details of a £10m move are being worked on with the player himself keen to rejoin the MLS side he left in 2019.
Personal terms are not understood to be a problem and an agreement is expected in the coming days. Almiron has been up for sale this month after drifting out of Newcastle’s first-team picture.
The £10m price tag is not quite at Newcastle’s valuation but still represents a substantial profit on Almiron’s “book value” (the term used to reflect his amortised valuation, which reduces the closer he gets to the end of his contract).
Crucially that will give Newcastle some room to manoeuvre given their continuing battle to stay within the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules.
Whether Newcastle choose to utilise that headroom is another matter, with noises coming from the club over recent days suggesting their PSR position is still too marginal to countenance a sizeable, first team signing to replace Almiron.
The Magpies – and Mitchell specifically – are facing a dilemma many of their Premier League rivals are wrestling with. Do they broker a big deal in January which can help in the second half of the season but might require sales to offset it in the summer, or keep their powder dry to strengthen in the close season.
With Newcastle still seemingly spooked by their experience in June 2024 when they had to sell Yankuba Minteh to Brighton and Elliot Anderson to Nottingham Forest to avoid a PSR breach, it might be that they opt not to strengthen.
That could change but sources have suggested that a move for a younger player with potential to improve might be more likely. It is a risk and could be an opportunity dropped given the position Eddie Howe’s team find themselves in heading into the final 17 games of the season.
They are back in the top four after an incredible run of six straight Premier League wins but only three points separate them from Aston Villa in 7th.
Injuries would disrupt them and Harvey Barnes’ absence for a month with a thigh strain means they are down to just Anthony Gordon and Jacob Murphy as specialist wide men in their squad. Given the importance Howe places on those positions, signing some support feels essential.
Mitchell has spent much of his first few months as director of football making changes to the scouting operations and widening Newcastle’s scouting focus across Europe.
While he would face criticism for a second successive transfer window without major additions, it’s understood his view is that taking a longer term perspective is more important than signing players for the sake of it.
He has told colleagues that getting the right player is more important than just adding bodies and has backed Howe’s judgement on Martin Dubravka, whose move to Al-Shabab has been shelved after the Slovakian’s fantastic form.
Newcastle are also set to keep hold of Lloyd Kelly, who has been the subject of a low-ball bid from Fenerbahce. Jose Mourinho identified Kelly as a possible target but an initial offer – said by sources in Turkey to be close to £6m – was turned down as derisory. Kelly fills in at several positions.
Insiders say there is “alignment” on the club’s direction, with few of the tensions that became the hallmark of their strained summer. It had long been telegraphed internally that January would be quiet.
Four options to replace Almiron
It can be done. That’s the message from football finance experts and scouting sources when Newcastle’s right-wing dilemma is put to them – while their PSR spot is difficult, it wouldn’t be impossible to do something.
So which options are achievable? The i Paper commissioned Alex Stewart of Analytics FC – a football consultancy who work with a clutch of top clubs across Europe to identify transfer targets – to find players who fit Mitchell’s profile.
That means under 23, with room to improve and who would cost between £10m and £30m. Governing Body Endorsements (GBEs) have also been taken into account – the pass that allows players from overseas to move to England if they meet the FA’s points-based criteria. Here’s what he came up with.
Rayan Cherki (Olympique Lyon, 21, GBE pass)
“He can play anywhere across the front line but has mostly appeared as a right winger in the last 12 months,” Stewart says.
“Extremely good ball carrier, with elite levels of creativity, he is right footed but Lyon are having financial issues which could lower his price. Three goals and three assists in limited minutes this season.
“Could be a world-beater and only 21.”
Gabriel Pec (LA Galaxy, 23, GBE Exceptions*)
“A cheaper option probably and comes with the usual MLS caveats but was excellent in Brazil in the top flight for Vasco and can play left or right wing as a left-footer,” Stewart says.
“A very strong ball carrier, he got 16 league goals and 12 assists this season, though he would arrive having played a full season and just started to wind down, which could be an issue getting up to speed.
“Probably the fifth best player in the MLS overall last year and the best in his position.”
*If a player scores between 10–14 points for a GBE test, the club can appeal to show that exceptional circumstances prevented the player from scoring 15 points.
Anthony Valencia (Royal Antwerp, 21, GBE eligible)
“He passed through the fabled Ecuadoran talent centre Independiente del Valle and impressed with them in the U20 Copa Libertadores,” says Stewart.
“Valencia has been quietly making an impression with a strong Antwerp side who won the league in 2022-23. He’s very much a prospect but with a possibly large upside.”
Tiago Palacios (Estudiantes, 23, GBE eligible)
“A diminutive, tricky winger used to the rough and tumble of Argentina’s top flight,” Stewart says.
“Elite winger at that level, especially great dribbler and carrier who gets into advanced positions and can create from nothing.
“Again, a gamble but with possible massive upside. Three goals and three assists this season and played in the Copa Libertadores. He represents Uruguay internationally.”
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