The January transfer window opens on Saturday with potential and prices sky high as clubs look towards a potentially transformative 31 days.
From speaking to executives, agents and intermediaries, here are the trends we expect over the next month.
Everyone wants to know what Newcastle will do
There is one club that comes up in every conversation with transfer insiders about what is going to happen in January – and they are the talk of scouts, agents, executives and rival club owners across the continent.
The Saudi-backed takeover of Newcastle United makes them the club to watch in January, with rivals eager to see what the theoretical riches the club has means in practice.
“Expect them to go very big if the conversations I’ve heard are correct,” one agent tells i.
Others say Newcastle have been walking away from deals where they have been quoted sizeable fees. One enquiry about a South American international playing in Europe saw a fee of more than £40m quoted – which prompted the Magpies to walk away. “We still don’t know exactly how much money they have to spend,” another intermediary says.
When the business plan was initially submitted to the Premier League, PIF were planning to bolster Newcastle’s transfer budget by £50m for each of the first five transfer windows (on top of TV money and player sales). That suggests that while a substantial investment is on the way, they will also need to box clever.
More on Newcastle United FC
Newcastle add striker to January transfer wishlist with Wilson facing 'months' out28 December, 2021
i's guide to the pundits, commentators and presenters for this week's football on Amazon Prime28 December, 2021
How 'desperate' Man Utd struggled with new 4-2-2-2 formation in draw against Newcastle28 December, 2021The club itself has projected a more realistic view in private, tempering expectations of major European stars coming to the club and instead pointing out that Newcastle need battle-hardened players ready to “plug in and play”.
“We know it’s important to get things done quickly,” an insider told i. “There has been a lot of work going on behind-the-scenes for weeks now.”
The added factor is a need to get across the idea to the plethora of middle men offering them players and deals that they won’t over pay, whatever funds they have. Minority owners Amanda Staveley, Jamie Reuben and Mehrdad Ghodoussi are at the forefront of deals – novices in this world but described as “sharp” by one deal-maker i spoke to – but how will the power-lines to PIF work?
Previously PIF have needed sign off and their “process-driven” approach has slowed some moves. The club need those processes to be smoother and more agile.
One thing every observer agrees on is that they will be expected to pay more than the “going rate” to bring in their players.
“Newcastle are in the relegation zone, they need to do something – which will probably be to flex their muscles in the transfer market – but every club in the world knows it,” Jeremy Steele, owner of Analytics FC, the football analytics powerhouse, tells i.
“So it’s almost like the Man City and Chelsea factor. They were paying over the odds for players to get themselves into a stronger position. There’s always been a Premier League premium, where clubs pay more if they’re English for good overseas players, but Newcastle can add their own premium to that now.”
A deal for Kieran Trippier is being worked on and i understands things are at an “advanced” stage. That would be a huge transfer for Newcastle to pull off, giving them momentum to work with for the rest of the month and an international calibre player to lure other targets.
Interestingly, insiders believe the deal will arrive with relegation clauses that would give Trippier (and his new club) an “out” at a certain price if relegation to the Championship occurs. The club might be forced to swallow more of those kind of clauses to get the moves they want done.
Manchester United could open up possibilities
Ralf Rangnick’s appointment opens up possibilities for the Red Devils, who made significant moves in the summer and who – according to one agent – will be “big players” in the winter trading period.
Outgoings may determine how they attack January but Rangnick is understood to want a defensive midfielder capable of shoring up his preferred system, which has – thus far – failed to spark.
Anthony Martial’s departure feels inevitable, even if it has to work for the Red Devils. Jesse Lingard and Dean Henderson are others to watch, although the former may end up remaining at Old Trafford through the window.
It’s understood the Manchester United board will “support” Rangnick in the transfer window: he has the benefit of years of extensive data-driven scouting of the European market. Bringing in the right type of player should not be a problem.
Will the Brexit impact finally kick in?
In a move that passed under-the-radar but will have significance, the Premier League decided to extend their work permit “exceptions panel” – which was due to end in the summer – into January.
Although internationals or players who play regularly in the big five leagues will get permits without much of a problem, Brexit rules have made it much harder to bring in European “bargains”.
The presence of the “exceptions panel” – which costs clubs £5,000 to convene but can get work permits for clubs outside of the strict rules – could be a lifeline for some deals. It is how Manchester United got a permit for Rangnick.
Brexit is having a big impact on scouting at the big clubs and those inside football expect significant shifts in where clubs look for signings. Keep your eyes on South America, says Steele.
“The biggest thing that I’m looking forward to seeing is how clubs deal with Brexit and the new GB regulations,” he said.
“Are the Premier League clubs agile enough to pivot to where the real opportunity lies: South America? I feel at the moment it will probably take another couple of seasons for them to get their seat and become powerhouses in that market but that is inevitable.”
Covid gives the Premier League added power
Premier League clubs will get their next tranche of TV revenue ahead of the January transfer window, which gives them a chance to flex their financial muscles in a market in which Covid has strengthened their hold on the market.
Players like Boubacar Kamara, Marseille’s talented defensive midfielder, is being actively hawked around Premier League clubs. Other clubs in Europe are engaging agencies to find buyers for their best players to pay the bills.
“The Premier League has been insulated a bit but I think there’s been an underestimation of quite how hard Covid has hit the rest of Europe,” Steele – who has extensive knowledge of European markets – said.
“Clubs are in trouble.”
The Ferran Torres deal to Barcelona indicated, though, that some will continue to take out loans and find a way – even if it looks implausible from the outside.
There are ‘deals to be done’
Most believe it will be a fairly quiet window in comparison to the pre-Covid era. But that doesn’t mean there won’t be moves made and agents are confident that it remains a buyers market for English clubs.
“I think it will be kind of quiet but there’ll be a few big transfers,” Steele said.
Loans, pre-contract deals and the European market open up “possibilities” for clubs agile enough to take them. And agents speak of Everton and West Ham as other clubs looking to be quick out of the blocks in January.
The bottom has fallen out of the market
“It’s a very strange market at the moment,” one executive told i. “A good proportion of players are still on pre-Covid contracts which have years to run.
“They know they won’t get anywhere near the money they’re on now so they’re sitting tight, even if it means not playing. And clubs can’t clear out their squad because of it.
“The market will naturally re-set but it’s going to take for the end of all of those contracts for it to happen.”
There is – one executive who spoke to i said – “zero money” in the EFL. This means no escape route for players out of favour, unless clubs heavily subsidise their wages or allow them to go out on loan.
With the exception of a few star men being heavily scouted in the Championship, don’t expect major movements in that division – with the exception of clubs still banking parachute money.
Top two won’t do much as they look to summer
One Premier League club executive reckoned his budget would be around £10-15million for the window and that’s probably fairly typical of the sort of deals most top flight clubs will be looking at.
January is notoriously a difficult market with higher prices and more resistance to selling best players because of the difficulty of sourcing replacements. Which is why Liverpool, renowned as one of the best recruiters in the business, tend to do their business in the summer.
Few expect the Reds or Manchester City to do anything, with all efforts going into the summer and “potential blockbusters” – to quote one agent – to come.
“Someone is going to sign Mbappe and someone is going to sign Erling Haaland,” said one executive. “The work going into those deals will be happening now – with clubs sourcing replacements too.”
from Football – inews.co.uk https://ift.tt/3EEazA7
Post a Comment