So is it the new norm or has the January transfer window been an outlier?
“The most difficult transfer window I’ve ever worked in,” was the succinct verdict of one EFL director of football i spoke to this week.
They had set a modest January target of bringing in three players – a striker, winger and left-back – but had struggled to get any in. At the time of speaking he was waiting to hear back on a loan deal that was proving more difficult than it should becuase the selling club couldn’t find a replacement.
“There’s not any money in the EFL outside a few clubs anyway, but when the Premier League turns the taps off everything stops,” he explained.
The reasons for the quiet January? Football finance expert Kieran Maguire sees it as a “reset” that should have been signposted long before the turn of the years.
“Premier League clubs already owe £2bn in respect of outstanding transfer instalments so I think they’re having a bit of a reset of sorts,” he told i.
“The ability to game the system – as we saw with Chelsea and their amortisation policy – that has been removed.
“If we take a look at the clubs who might have been inclined to spend a bit of money – the promoted clubs Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton – they have modest budgets while Nottingham Forest and Fulham spent a fortune.
“And last January we were also seeing the first signs of the impact of the Saudi Pro League ambitions, which has eased off this January.”
A long-term thing? Not necessarily, he reasons: “January was a singular set of circumstances that’s unlikely to be repeated.”
His view is not alone. One Premier League executive i spoke to earlier in the month predicted the market would “roar back into life” in the summer. Several conversations he has had have revolved around revisiting deals written off as unrealistic this month.
Although this month has been a wake up call for those involved in the transfer industry – in particular agents, fixers and the many recruitment consultancies who have sprouted out of the growth in the game – there aren’t many who expect the wholesale conservatism to stretch into the summer.
Financial Fair Play is going nowhere – and with it the drag on certain clubs like Newcastle, Aston Villa and Arsenal, who are fretting about hitting Uefa’s limits – but player trading is expected to return, partly driven by the Euros.
Of the big deals that might set the wheels in motion in the Premier League, Ivan Toney is expected to leave Brentford while Bruno Guimaraes’ £100m release clause makes Newcastle vulnerable. Kylian Mbappe becomes a free agent unless Paris Saint-Germain can once again persuade him to renew his deal.
Below them are a crop of internationals with 18 months left on their deals including Joelinton, Conor Gallagher, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Son Heung-min, Mo Salah, Virgil van Dijk and Kevin De Bruyne. It was only last week that Eddie Howe admitted his Brazil international might have to be sold if terms couldn’t be agreed on a new contract.
Instability in dugouts and boardrooms will also hasten progress in the market.
Jurgen Klopp’s decision to leave Liverpool will have another knock-on impact: a new man with some potentially fresh ideas will likely be backed in the transfer market while others will leave.
Then there is what happens at Old Trafford. i has been told that Sir Dave Brailsford’s audit of the football department will be finished before spring – and the reason for that is that Manchester United want to be “absolutely ready” for the summer transfer market.
“They want to have everything aligned well in time for the summer, which is the big chance for them to put into practice some of their big ideas about transfers,” a source told i.
They predict at least one “big” transfer that will showcase the new Ineos-driven approach. “There was no point in becoming involved if they were just going to sit on the sidelines,” the source said.
If Erik ten Hag is replaced – and again, the thinking on that will become clear long before the summer – it will add even more impetus to their business.
A final factor identified by executives i spoke to was a potential resurgence of the Saudi Pro League market. The league has taken a battering this month – the departure of Jordan Henderson and rumoured unhappiness of several key summer signings – but sources say there is still “total, 100 per cent” commitment to turning the SPL into a world class league.
“They are learning all the time and they knew there’d be bumps along the way,” the source said. A deal to try and tempt Salah is top of the agenda but i has been told to watch the four PIF-owned clubs, who have been quiet in January, and their ambitious targets too.
If that injects liquidity into the market, it will arm Premier League clubs with significant budgets to do business.
Six transfers to watch this summer
Ivan Toney: Brentford wanted in excess of £100m this January – partly because they knew his departure would throw their Premier League survival into doubt. He’ll be on the market for less in the summer, with plenty of suitors.
Kylian Mbappe: The world’s most wanted free agent if he allows his deal to run down. Losing him would prompt Paris Saint-Germain into the market – and where would he go?
Conor Gallagher: Chelsea know selling homegrown talent gives them FFP wiggle room and Gallagher’s name has been linked with moves away all month. The summer – with 12 months left on his deal – would be the only time to cash in.
Bruno Guimaraes: Newcastle do not want to sell their midfield catalyst but the Brazil international has a £100m release clause and interest from Liverpool, PSG and even Real Madrid.
Mo Salah: Expect Saudi Pro League clubs to come back and try and exploit instability at Anfield and tempt Salah with one of the most lucrative packages in world football.
Marcus Rashford: As i revealed on Tuesday, an Mbappe-sized hole in Paris would invite speculation about Rashford, whose off-the-field antics are souring his love affair at Old Trafford.
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